Imo we seem to be skipping the M2 (no idea why) but I’m expecting M3 Mac’s to start appearing in October/November, so a lengthy wait. If you buy the current one and BTO the 16gb of ram then it should last a long time. Even my 8gb model has been fine for simple stuff
You hit it on the head. Product release is supply chain driven based on consumer demand. The highest volume/most profitable gets the latest release 1st. When excess capacity becomes available then the chip finds itself into unexpected places
For the M1
All in Nov 2000
- Macbook Air
- Mac mini
- Macbook Pro 13"
All in May 2021
- iMac 24"
- iPad Pro 11"/12.9"
All in Mar 2022
- iPad Air
For the M2
All in Jun 2022
- Macbook Air
- Macbook Pro 13"
All in Oct 2022
- iPad Pro 11"/12.9"
All in Jan 2023
- Mac mini
I think the 2022 Mac mini was delayed for these reasons
- supply chain constraints on M2 parts
- Apple wanted to introduce the Mac mini with both M2 & M2 Pro chips in late 2022 like say Oct/Nov 2022.
Latest die shrink tech will always be used with iPhone chips 1st before Mac chips. So a 3nm M3 chip will come months after a 3nm A17 Bionic chip.
Maybe, maybe not. They launched the M2 on the laptops first, then the iPads, then just last week, the Mac mini. No reason to think they are done launching new M2 products - there'll probably be an M2 iPad Air at some point too, at least.
There must be some logic behind this - maybe there is a finite amount of M2 production capacity and they are picking the most strategically-important/profitable/etc first? Maybe the highest volume products first?
What was the order with M1? Laptops/mini, then iPad Pro/iMac, then a year later, iPad Air? But with M1, they needed to have at least some desktop option for developers who had to return their DTKs...
I think it’s also useful to see how Apple updated the iMac before the transition. The reason being: we know there was no major bottlenecks like the pandemic and chip shortages. Intel always had new chips every year appropriate for the iMac. So we can assume their release cadence pre-2019 was likely mostly unobstructed.
With that in mind:
2015 - new imac
2016 - nothing
2017 - new imac
2018 - nothing
2019 - new imac
2020 - nothing (small 27” update)
2021 - new imac
2022 - nothing
It seems Apple started to prefer a 2 year cadence for the iMac starting in 2015. Of course I’m not saying this means 2023 should get a new iMac - because I think TSMC and Apple are behind schedule. I think had everything gone to plan, we should have seen an iMac this year. Maybe that’s still possible. But I think Apple is waiting for M3. TSMC is very quickly ramping up 3nm chips, and according to their roadmap, they plan to be off 5nm chips by 2024.
I don’t think Apple is always going to update every Mac on every generation. I think apple will always update the MacBooks every generation, but desktops will depend on the year. Here is how I think their chip candenxe will go, and I suspect iMac will be updated on odd-numbered generations only.
M1, M1 Pro, M1 Max, M1 Ultra
M2, M2 Pro, M2 Max
M3, M3 Pro, M3 Max, M3 Ultra, M3 Extr
M4, M4 Pro, M4 Max
M5, M5 Pro, M5 Max, M5 Ultra, M5 Extr
M6, M6 Pro, M6 Max
M7, M7 Pro, M7 Max, M7 Ultra, M7 Extr
Just my theory!