Sidebar Sidebar
Become a MacRumors Supporter for $50/year with no ads, ability to filter front page stories, and private forums.

In 2019, what will we be talking about?

B

BenEndeem

macrumors 6502
Jul 25, 2008
301
0
England
Maybe I'm missing something on the processor side of things, but might they be about ten times faster? It just seems that at every turning point in processor technology it was said 'this is all the speed you need' (followed by an explanation about how the technology will start to follow a different route rather than increase clock speed) yet they almost inevitably seem to increase in speed tenfold about every decade.

Eg. A fairly mainstream computer in...
End of 80s - Early 90s: 20-30Mhz
Late 90: 200-400Mhz
Late 00s: 2-3GHz
Late 10s: 20-30GHz?

Other than that, probably a heavy focus on touchscreen devices or whatever they evolve into, they certainly seem to be taking hold at the moment.
 
N

nanofrog

macrumors G4
May 6, 2008
11,719
3
ccdan said:
We'll be talking about a former company called Apple that sold overpriced products to unsophisticated and unsuspecting customers... :)
Click to expand...
:eek: You may be hunted down, tarred and feathered with such a statement. :D :p

BenEndeem said:
...yet they almost inevitably seem to increase in speed tenfold about every decade.

Eg. A fairly mainstream computer in...
End of 80s - Early 90s: 20-30Mhz
Late 90: 200-400Mhz
Late 00s: 2-3GHz
Late 10s: 20-30GHz?
Click to expand...
Not unless CPU's get out of semiconductors. Optical maybe, but I'm not under the impression it'll be ready for prime time by then. Too much to work out yet, without a massive investment to speed up the development.
 
roadbloc

roadbloc

macrumors G3
Aug 24, 2009
8,784
215
UK
BenEndeem said:
Eg. A fairly mainstream computer in...
End of 80s - Early 90s: 20-30Mhz
Late 90: 200-400Mhz
Late 00s: 2-3GHz
Late 10s: 20-30GHz?
Click to expand...

Jesus! The heat generated from that would set the world on fire! My electricity bill would be huge!
 
nick1516

nick1516

macrumors 6502a
Sep 21, 2008
564
0
Hopefully we'll have gone back to the moon again, I remember it was either going to be a few years earlier or a few years later.
 
C

Cerebrus' Maw

macrumors 6502
Mar 9, 2008
409
1
Brisbane, Australia
I think that with reference to Moore's Law, we only have another 10 years left before we hit atomic scale with our processors, which is why quantum computers are being looked at closely. ( I think. I'm pretty sure I remember reading this in New Scientist)

Nanofrog: Your possibly right, it may take more then 10 years. But even in the last two, some large steps have been taken in the right direction. Or course, I think that we will nessecarily have them on our desktop (unless you have some sort of massive ion cooler!) but Google actually did managed to build one (although even they admit that it is not a 'true' quantum computer) to recognize cars in their street maps project.
 
N

nanofrog

macrumors G4
May 6, 2008
11,719
3
Cerebrus' Maw said:
I think that with reference to Moore's Law, we only have another 10 years left before we hit atomic scale with our processors, which is why quantum computers are being looked at closely. ( I think. I'm pretty sure I remember reading this in New Scientist)

Nanofrog: Your possibly right, it may take more then 10 years. But even in the last two, some large steps have been taken in the right direction. Or course, I think that we will nessecarily have them on our desktop (unless you have some sort of massive ion cooler!) but Google actually did managed to build one (although even they admit that it is not a 'true' quantum computer) to recognize cars in their street maps project.
Click to expand...
I see optical computers as the next in line to replace current technology. It solves the heat issues, and is faster (optical gate = 1000x, maybe a bit more now, than that of an electrical gate). Not to mention it can go as wide as 123 billion bits.

Conductive polymers have been developed that should make it affordable, especially with economy of scale in place.
 
Maserati7200

Maserati7200

macrumors 6502a
Mar 17, 2009
909
3
11230, Midwood, Brooklyn, NY, USA, North America
BenEndeem said:
Maybe I'm missing something on the processor side of things, but might they be about ten times faster? It just seems that at every turning point in processor technology it was said 'this is all the speed you need' (followed by an explanation about how the technology will start to follow a different route rather than increase clock speed) yet they almost inevitably seem to increase in speed tenfold about every decade.

Eg. A fairly mainstream computer in...
End of 80s - Early 90s: 20-30Mhz
Late 90: 200-400Mhz
Late 00s: 2-3GHz
Late 10s: 20-30GHz?

Other than that, probably a heavy focus on touchscreen devices or whatever they evolve into, they certainly seem to be taking hold at the moment.
Click to expand...
Processor clock speeds are hitting a wall at 3-4 GHz (or at least increasing at a much slower rate after that) because speeds that high consume too much power and generate too much heat. The future is multiple cores. I wouldn't be surprised if average computers in 10 years have 24 cores or so. A 1.86 GHz Core 2 Duo is faster than a 3.73 GHz single core pentium 4. Also, even with the same amount of cores, clock speed isn't everything, that's why 500 MHz PPC G4's were faster than the 1 GHz Pentiums of the time (see here)
 
Schtumple

Schtumple

macrumors 601
Jun 13, 2007
4,905
131
benkadams.com
We will be talking about Apple finally releasing the Powerbook G5.

Too easy :p

My guess is touch screens will be a fairly established 3rd form factor for computing, fitting just behind laptops in terms of power and functionality.

Desktops will have become more for media, gaming and office work only, with laptops being used by the large majority.

Also, Steve Jobs will have stepped down, so I'm sure his predecessor will be under a lot of scrutiny by purists :p
 
Maserati7200

Maserati7200

macrumors 6502a
Mar 17, 2009
909
3
11230, Midwood, Brooklyn, NY, USA, North America
Schtumple said:
We will be talking about Apple finally releasing the Powerbook G5.

Too easy :p
Click to expand...
INTRODUCING...The PowerBook G5
17085pBookG5.jpg

:D;)
 
talkingfuture

talkingfuture

macrumors 65816
Dec 4, 2008
1,216
0
The back of beyond.
2019:

The new Apple iCar - milled from solid aluminium with a glossy windscreen and touch sensitive steering wheel.

The iPhone 14g - no screen it projects images directly into your brain whilst being controlled by thoughts.
 
P

phaedarus

macrumors regular
Dec 27, 2008
165
7
Hmm, my prediction:

In an effort to combat software piracy and to open up to a wider market, major software publishers/developers will be hosting their programs on the cloud.

Much like OnLive, software would be operated on mainframe systems while utilizing video compression on a broadband connection to provide instant feedback. Users will no longer have to purchase expensive computer equipment locally to run Maya and Photoshop. They can choose their preference of OS as well.

Customers will need to buy a hardware dongle (Lightpeak maybe) to authenticate their account. From there, they can purchase an unlimited license or rental package for their particular program of choice. Provided they have the dongle with them, they can run any program they have access to on any machine at any time (in theory).

Those without an Internet connection, a defective/misplaced dongle, or those who are distrustful of such an Orwellian scenario will have to make do with unsupported local installations of program versions prior to the cloud.
 
D

Disc Golfer

macrumors 6502a
Dec 17, 2009
582
3
According to Back to the Future II we're only six years out from flying cars and 80s nostalgia cafes.
 
N

nanofrog

macrumors G4
May 6, 2008
11,719
3
phaedarus said:
Hmm, my prediction:

In an effort to combat software piracy and to open up to a wider market, major software publishers/developers will be hosting their programs on the cloud.

Much like OnLive, software would be operated on mainframe systems while utilizing video compression on a broadband connection to provide instant feedback. Users will no longer have to purchase expensive computer equipment locally to run Maya and Photoshop. They can choose their preference of OS as well.
Click to expand...
This is definitely the direction such companies desire, but there's a potential flaw with it. ISP bandwidth. The necessary infrastructure needed for this doesn't yet exist. High bandwidth pipes are rare, and limited to commercial property zones for the most part, and the financial investment to get it to where it needs to be for consumers is enormous. Not something current ISP providers are readily willing to spend, as they've been dragging their heels for years. Not only the US, but other countries as well. Asia seems to be further along than any other nation AFAIK (i.e. 80Mb/s service is available in Japan, but it's not cheap). And the cost of said bandwidth must be affordable, or users won't adopt it.

This is currently why the streaming video market is small yet. Many are keen on the concept, but their ISP service just isn't up to the task, and users have to wait for the buffering to get to the point viewing can start. They end up disappointed.

phaedarus said:
Customers will need to buy a hardware dongle (Lightpeak maybe) to authenticate their account. From there, they can purchase an unlimited license or rental package for their particular program of choice. Provided they have the dongle with them, they can run any program they have access to on any machine at any time (in theory).
Click to expand...
Some software already does this with either a USB dongle or Ethernet switch provided by the software vendor. I have a suite that uses this method of authorization prior to launching the application. Previously, they used a Parallel port dongle rather than USB. So it's not a new method at all.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Register on MacRumors! This sidebar will go away, and you'll see fewer ads.
Top Bottom