OSXcellent said:
Just for fun, let's assume everything you say is right. The problem is still one of perception. Does Apple stick with IBM when they can't provide them with a processor for the laptop, and Freescale that doesn't have the brains to make a processor that's competitive with mobile x86 alternatives? It's Motorola all over again - stuck in a speed ditch with no way to get out, but worse, stuck with a laptop lineup that is so underpowered, it can't even run Apple's famed h.264 HD video - for either consumers or video editors. If your problems above are issues, then these are worse.
My $.02.
Exactly. This is the worst situation the Mac has been in since the PPC transistion.
While everyone is super-happy on the iPod candy, it's not going to last forever. We are already seeing sales slowing (or at least growing slower) and this is going to indicate the peak -- cell phones and things like the Yahoo Music Unlimited deal are going to put the end to the huge growth of the iPod.
The Mac is looking IMO quite doomed. Apple has no options. The notebook makes up 60% of its sales, but its top of the line can't even play back its high-def content, let alone author it, which for the much-touted creative's sidekick looks dire. Not only this, no-one is standing in the corner to pick up the notebook line from where it is. IBM basically has obviously given up caring about the miniscule numbers of chips Apple wants - it doesn't justify the huge investment that would be needed for a mobile G5. Freescale is the next option, but they are at least 6-12months off a dual core G4 which wouldn't be a huge improvement over the current ones.
So, Apple is now running to Intel. But this switchover is going to be next to impossible to accomplish. Can the company really last a year on bad Mac sales? Will developers give up and move to Linux/Windows? I'd guess so. Can you really see Maya, Reason, Adobe etc investing millions yet again in optimising for a shrinking market?
To be honest I think this is the end of the Mac as we know it. I think Jobs could announce he's stepping down (how much is he willing to take after he got hit with cancer? I know very few would have the focus on something as silly -- in the grand scale of life -- as a set of transistors) shortly after. Without Jobs the company will descend into a mess. The ipod will drift them over for a few years, but after that I can't see them lasting much longer.
This is a very pessimistic viewpoint -- I know. But honestly I can't see anything good happening here. It's not as if it's even going to be the 1-2months shipping time we usually expect after a keynote - it's going to be 1-2 years and the IT industry _hates_ waits like that.
Oh well, it was good while it lasted I suppose...