Intel clockspeed ramp slowing......

[syco]

Sorry if this has all been said before, I didn't have time to read the whole thread.

But still. Hold on a darn minute.

This isn't going to be the fall of Intel. They've been slowing down since the 2GHz mark. I still find it funny that it took us 25 years to go from 8 MHz to 1 GHz and then as many weeks to go from 1 GHz to 2 GHz.

If HyperThreading is as useful as they claim it is (which I doubt), then ads will probably plug HyperThreading more than clock speed, especially if 3.06 GHz is as high as they're going to go. It probably won't become much cheaper, just maybe a little cooler, because I'm going to guess that their R&D is probably going to the .09 micron chips.

How's AMD doing? From what I remember, the AMD chips tend to lag behind Intel by about a factor of 50-150 Mhz, so this should allow them to catch up a bit.

Developers will now have a fixed target to shoot for, instead of anticipating what everyone'll have then.

Of course, there is the whole best-case scenario, when Apple does reclaim a significant market share. I can almost guarantee that some people will find Apples attractive over the course of the next year (especially if Steve Jobs delivers on his promise of 2003 being Apple's best year ever; great timing!), but it won't make Apple #1.

Sorry. I love Apple more than anything, and I'd love to see them be successful, but I just can't make my vision cloudy to the truth.

 

[ddtlm]

syco:

If HyperThreading is as useful as they claim it is (which I doubt)

The thing about hyperthreading is that there appears to be no downside. In all the reviews I read for the 3.06ghz P4, there were very few things that got worse with hyperthreading. Of course a lot things gain nothing... but the overall effect is positive.

It probably won't become much cheaper, just maybe a little cooler, because I'm going to guess that their R&D is probably going to the .09 micron chips.

The rabid people on these forums would love to believe that the current P4 cannot scale beyond 3ghz, which is not true. Reviewers have overclocked it to 3.6 without doing anything tricky, so Intel has room for a few more speed grades. Also, when Intel goes to 90nm production, that will give them more headroom (just like every die shrink does).

Of course, there is the whole best-case scenario, when Apple does reclaim a significant market share.

I can't see this happening. Apple may get a little bigger, but price and familiarity are huge motivators that will keep most people on their Sams Club cheapo PC's.

 

[MrMacMan]

Did someone say there was a P5 ?
I haven't seen any articles...
All I've heard about was that if IBM 970 were to come out now it would kick the P4.
In 2 years... well we will have to see. Apple has a decent OS and decent for what Teens want, gaming.
So they should hold on to Some market share.
I just hope we don't go into where Linux went.

 

[ddtlm]

MrMacman:

Pentium 5 is the likely name of the 90nm chip that replaced the P4 in late 2003. It will be a lot like the P4, but is expected to sport the usual ever higher clockspeed, 1MB of L2 on die and presumably various other improvements that Intel is keeping a lid on. SSE3 has been rumored.

All I've heard about was that if IBM 970 were to come out now it would kick the P4.

Outside of the Apple-worshipping circles the PPC-970 was never really expected to defeat Intel in any particular important area. The PPC-970 is a lot better than a G4, and will be a much better compeditor to the P4/P5 in any case. No longer will zealots have to make fools of themselves when they tirelessly try to defend the performance of Macs.

Apple has a decent OS and decent for what Teens want, gaming.

Teens? Teens are only a segment of the gamer's market.

So they should hold on to Some market share.

Because of teen gamers? I fail to see how they matter very much.

I just hope we don't go into where Linux went.

Linux is doing just fine... I don't know what you think happened to it.

 

[MrMacMan]

You sortof blended by comments together...
Many who lead the way into the computing world are Teens and younger.
As I was saying that users of Linux have been ignored and many Linux users have to either:
1 leech of others or 2 Devolop software for their platform. Many like the idea of them helping fellow people out, I on the other hand like that normal devolpers can make stuff for mac's without normal people porting software.
Back to other comments...
I'm try to not fall under the Mac Zelot group but you know... and yeah we do try to defend the mac's as much as possible...
As for the P5 it seems basically the same as the P4 with higher clock speed and some L2 which will not be much better than the P4 other than clock speed.
Apple is gonna need some product that really kicks to get themselves a winner.

 

[rice_web]

If the P5 houses SSE3, you'll notice a significant performance boost in 3D Apps (such as Lightwave) and games. The move to a 1MB L2 cache and a faster system bus (up to 800MHz rumored) alone would provide a noticeable performance gain, but with SSE3 also factored in, the P5 will likely gain a 10% increase in performance on some applications at the same clock speed.

 

[syco]

Originally posted by ddtlm
syco:


The thing about hyperthreading is that there appears to be no downside. In all the reviews I read for the 3.06ghz P4, there were very few things that got worse with hyperthreading. Of course a lot things gain nothing... but the overall effect is positive.

From what I heard, if an applciation isn't optimized for HyperThreading, it will not use it, and it may even cause the system to slow down. It's similar to AltiVec, although an app non-optimized for AltiVec won't slow the system down.

Still, I don't understand how any processor could act as two. Although, I don't know TOTALLY how a computer works anyway, but it still doesn't make sense...but oh well.

The rabid people on these forums would love to believe that the current P4 cannot scale beyond 3ghz, which is not true. Reviewers have overclocked it to 3.6 without doing anything tricky, so Intel has room for a few more speed grades. Also, when Intel goes to 90nm production, that will give them more headroom (just like every die shrink does).

Well, Intel decided that they aren't going to expand it past 3 GHz because of the heat. Unless you put a 3.6 GHz in a NASA wind tunnel, that thing'll slag just about any computer you put in front of it.

I can't see this happening. Apple may get a little bigger, but price and familiarity are huge motivators that will keep most people on their Sams Club cheapo PC's.

I know, thats why its the best case scenario. It won't happen. Best case scenario: People think Intel is stupid, arrogant, etc. for freezing the P4 at 3GHz, jump ship to Apple, Apple ends up with approximately 82% of the computer market.

Of course, this won't happen!! Intel is a chip provider for god knows how many computer makers: Sony, Dell, Alienware, etc. They probably sell thousands of chips a day. They will not collapse.


I'm just giving my (probably incorrect) predictions for this event.

 

[ddtlm]

syco:

I am not sure where you are getting the idea that Intel is not realeasing any P4's above 3.06ghz. All that was claimed is that it is getting harder, due to heat problems. Overclocking has demonstated that the P4 has some headroom even with conventional cooling systems.

From what I heard, if an applciation isn't optimized for HyperThreading, it will not use it

Hyperthreading allows multiple apps to run at once even if neither is threaded. The first version of hyperthreading that Intel semi-released in Xeons some time ago did have serious side effects, but reviews of the 3.06ghz P4 have clearly shown that Intel has corrected the original problems. Hyperthreading looks like a win-win enhancement, although it is not necessarily a big deal either. Remember folks, just cause Intel did it first does not mean that it is bad, that it is stupid, or that it is evil. I bet that IBM and AMD will implement hyperthreading some day as well, although it will take time.

This review (linked) is fair and informed:

http://www.aceshardware.com/read.jsp?id=50000319

That website is not especially PC-centric, and their webserver is a Sun machine, so they do not worship PCs or anything (if that concens you).

 

[Sun Baked]

Originally posted by ddtlm
I am not sure where you are getting the idea that Intel is not realeasing any P4's above 3.06ghz. All that was claimed is that it is getting harder, due to heat problems. Overclocking has demonstated that the P4 has some headroom even with conventional cooling systems.

There is a lot of headroom left until the cooling and power usage problems become a liability in the home PC market.

It's going to be felt in the commercial market far earlier, as companies find that the fast computers are taking a huge bite out of the electric and a/c bills.

But until people actually start complaining/avoiding classes of machines based on power/heat, Intel will continue to crank out ever faster and more efficient space heaters.

I did like the comparison awhile back that said, Intel has a lot of margin left before the Pentium begins generating more heat per cm^3 (or was it cm^2) than a nuclear power plant.

 

[syco]

Maybe I didn't make myself clear. I interpreted the initial article to mean that the P4 wouldn't go past 3.06 GHz without going to the .09 micron process.

I read the first page of that link but not the rest of it (its not _that_ important I know about this technology, as I won't be buying a PC so maybe I'm missing something, but it seems like there is a big potential for backups. Maybe thats what Intel worked on, but it sure sounds like it. For instance, lets say you have 100 integer operations. The integer operation 70 is tied in with a floating point operation. Using SMT, you'd have the FPU sitting around taking up cache memory for 69 integer operations. I mean, cue me in if I'm missing something; I'm not one of those "ignorance is bliss" type people, but the logic doesn't seem to work for me.