Intel roadmap: New 14 nm and 10 nm Y series chips this year.

Discussion in 'MacBook' started by EugW, Apr 24, 2019.

  1. The Samurai macrumors 68000

    The Samurai

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    #2
    What would this mean for the Macbook in 2019? Likelihood of refresh at which month?
     
  2. EugW, Apr 25, 2019
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2019

    EugW thread starter macrumors 603

    EugW

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    #3
    WWDC 2019 (June) is a possibility, but then again it could also be much later.

    https://www.tomshardware.com/news/intel-roadmap-10nm-14nm-gpu-cpu,39163.html

    So far Intel has publicly maintained a release schedule of "2019 holidays" for 10nm products to hit the shelves. However, since the beginning of the year, leaks have suggested a June launch was possible. This roadmap says that Ice Lake and Lakefield are indeed planned for the second quarter, so it is likely we will hear more at Computex.

    But make no mistake: Intel says it created Lakefield for one specific customer, and the Ice Lake-U entry conspicuously says “limited,” suggesting there will not be all that many laptops with Ice Lake released. Intel is also planning a Lakefield refresh for 2020.

    This earlier schedule for Ice Lake also changes the expectations for Tiger Lake, the second-gen 10nm family, which is most likely based on the Willow Cove CPU cores and the Gen12 Xe graphics architecture. According to the roadmap, Tiger Lake is now set for a launch in the second quarter of next year. But it seems Tiger Lake, just like Ice Lake, will be constrained to the low-power Y- and U-series, with the U-series further being constrained to four cores instead of the six-core Comet (and Rocket) Lake chips, as we'll discuss shortly.

    Extrapolating further out, if Intel keeps this yearly schedule, it is likely that Alder Lake with Golden Cove cores will launch in early 2021.
     
  3. frou macrumors 6502

    frou

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    #4
    Now we need someone to leak Apple's in-house CPU roadmap and we could overlay the 2 charts
     
  4. radiologyman macrumors 6502a

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    #5
    We are seeing many sales on MB 12. Update is nigh?
     
  5. EugW, Apr 25, 2019
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2019

    EugW thread starter macrumors 603

    EugW

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    #6
    I don't think the sales mean anything, except that retailers are trying to move stock of a 2 year-old product, before a possible release that they're guessing may be soon (like WWDC 2019 in June).


    It's interesting that the chart says "Limited" for Q2 Ice Lake Y, a 10 nm part. It's possible that "Limited" run will be for Apple for the 12" MacBook, just like i5-8210Y Amber Lake is a "Limited" 14 nm part for Apple for the MacBook Air.

    One thing to note though is that i5-8210Y Amber Lake only scores about 8000 in Geekbench 4, being a dual-core part only. That roadmap states the "Limited" run of Ice Lake Y in 2019 Q2 would also be dual-core, and I'm guessing it would be with performance in the same ballpark but perhaps a little higher than i5-8210Y, in the 9000 range. That would be a good update for 2019 to the fanless MacBook line.

    However, my 2017 iPad Pro 10.5" already scores about 9600 in Geekbench 4, and the 2018 iPad Pro 11" gets 18400 (!) in a similar thin and fanless form factor.

    I'm thinking if Apple does update the 12" MacBook in 2019, maybe it could be the last Intel 12" MacBook that Apple ever releases. Then in 2020 they could release an Apple ARM based fanless MacBook. Or I suppose, the could release a quad-core Y-series Intel MacBook, using 10 nm Tiger Lake, as a last Intel hurrah.

    In this scenario, my 2017 16 GB Core m3-7Y32 12" MacBook could be my last Intel MacBook. I do need a Mac to do some stuff, but I'm needing it less and less these days, and the stuff I do on-the-road with a MacBook is pretty light so my 2017 Intel MacBook ought to last me a long time. Furthermore, I'm thinking that by the time I upgrade, it would likely be to an Apple ARM machine, with a good chance it would be to an iPad Pro. Even now, my main non-iPhone mobile device is my iPad Pro. The split of usage between my iPad Pro vs. my MacBook is about 85% to 15% respectively. Even if I do get another MacBook, by the time I actually need to do it, I'm thinking Apple would have already switched to ARM. As it stands now, they could actually emulate Intel for legacy software on their A12X and still be about as fast as the fastest 2017 Core i7-7Y75 MacBook.

    tl;dr:

    2019: Apple releases dual-core 10 nm Intel MacBook
    2020: Apple releases ARM MacBook that's twice as fast, or while emulating Intel is about as fast as the 2019.
    Or else Apple releases quad-core 10 nm Intel MacBook in 2020 and then later releases an ARM MacBook.
    Some time later, Eug buys an ARM machine, but it might not be a MacBook at all and instead could be an iPad Pro.
     
  6. EugW, Apr 26, 2019
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2019

    EugW thread starter macrumors 603

    EugW

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    #7
    https://alphastreet.com/amp/earning...ference-call?page=2&page_section=presentation

    We also previewed our upcoming 10 nanometer Ice Lake client CPUs, which will deliver unprecedented levels of integration including DL Boost Inference acceleration, Wi-Fi 6, Thunderbolt 3 and Gen 11 graphics. Our first integrated GPU with a full teraflop of performance. Our 10 nanometer yields continue to improve and Ice Lake remains on track to be in volume systems on retail shelves for the 2019 holiday selling season In Q4, we also made important progress in AI, 5G and autonomous driving. For artificial intelligence, we saw accelerating adoption of OpenVINO, our open source tool kit for neural network optimization and the rapid deployment of AI based computer vision.
     
  7. EugW thread starter macrumors 603

    EugW

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    #8
    https://hexus.net/business/news/com...ations-thanks-high-performance-product-sales/

    After the recent Intel roadmap slides leaked from a Dell presentation, Intel might have felt the need to comment more thoroughly on its 10nm plans. On the leaked client mobile slide we see that Ice Lake U and Ice Lake Y (both 10nm) should debut in a couple of months. The conference call cleared up that CPU qualification for these parts will complete in Q2 this year with shipments likely to start shortly after in Q3, and then systems built around these chips will be on shelves sometime in Q4 2019. Ice Lake CPUs are also of note as they feature the Sunny Cove architecture with expanded instruction support and support for LPDDR4X. Ice Lake SoCs will also be the first to ship with Intel Gen11 iGPUs.

    AnandTech snipped a key 10nm statement from the conference call, as provided by Bob Swann: "On the [10 nm] process technology front, our teams executed well in Q1 and our velocity is increasing," said the Intel CEO. "We remain on track to have volume client systems on shelves for the holiday selling season. And over the past four months, the organization drove a nearly 2X improvement in the rate at which 10nm products move through our factories".
     
  8. radiologyman, Apr 27, 2019
    Last edited: Apr 30, 2019

    radiologyman macrumors 6502a

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    #9
    So if Intel will deliver 10nm chips this time, Apple may finally upgrade MB 12. Looks like Q4 is the earliest possibility unless Apple will get first batch in Q3. I will be getting one but possibly will wait for a better price till Black Friday or longer
     
  9. Narcaz, Apr 30, 2019
    Last edited: Apr 30, 2019

    Narcaz macrumors 6502

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    #10
  10. lambertjohn macrumors 6502a

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    #11
    Waste of time this thread is. Macbook 12 is dead and the 2018 Air is its replacement. Hide and watch.
     
  11. Grey Area macrumors regular

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    Jan 14, 2008
    #12
    I think that's quite possible. The one thing that leaves me skeptical is that it would seem odd to no longer have a 'Macbook' in the lineup, only named variants, i.e. 'Pro' and 'Air'. But of course that's not an overly compelling reason to keep it.
     
  12. frou macrumors 6502

    frou

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    #13
    I will make a note to laugh at you from my ARM MacBook 12" in a year or two ;)
     
  13. radiologyman macrumors 6502a

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    #14
    Kuo is well connected in Apple supply chain and already ''predicted" ARM in several new devices in 2020
     
  14. dgdosen macrumors 68000

    dgdosen

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    #15
    With Apple moving away from Intel, do you think Intel is still going out of its way to make special chips for Apple? At CES, Intel announced that "Project Athena" - and Apple wasn't part of it... That makes me think that Apple is falling on Intel's priority list... So maybe they'll need to work with whatever Ice Lake chips Intel makes for the masses...
     
  15. EugW thread starter macrumors 603

    EugW

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    #16
    Intel will make chips for anyone that will pay for them. And if they’re semi-custom, Intel can just charge more if Apple really wants them. IOW, I don’t see how that is really any different than in past years (like last year with the MacBook Air).
     
  16. MultiFinder17 macrumors 68000

    MultiFinder17

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    #17
    That was the lineup from 2012-2015, so they've done it before. I still think that an ARM MacBook is more likely in the future than them killing it off though.
     
  17. Grey Area macrumors regular

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    #18
    Thanks, indeed. Somehow I remembered them going straight from the white plastic MB to the rMB.
     
  18. RegularGuy09 macrumors member

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    #19
    What kind of performance, graphics and battery life improvements are we looking at for the MacBook/MacBook Air if there is an icelake update?
     

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18 April 24, 2019