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I don't think it will be fully compatible, but everything announced now you will get. Here are some examples of differences:

iPhone OS 3 - 3GS got voice control while 3G did not

iOS 4 - 4 got FaceTime while 3GS did not. But also the ip 4 got more alert tones (4.2 or 4.3) while the 3GS did not

Some differences will be mechanical (like if the next iPhone has an alert light), but they will probably not release some future features for the iP 4.

Well the 3GS doesn't have a front facing camera, how is it meant to get facetime o_O.

I can't believe some people are suggesting that the iPhone 4 won't support iOS 5 fully. There is no doubt about it, if anything you should be questionning whether the 3GS will completely support it, and even then I would be suprised if it did not. Where there is new hardware then it's relevant features obviously can't be included but that goes without saying..
 
I would expect Apple to put in some iPhone 5 exclusive features as selling points once it's announced but the iPhone 4 will still be supported for a while yet.
 
It's supported, but if you update I have a feeling your iP4 won't be as fast as it was once you took it out the box.

Been using the betas for the las couple of months, it is almost as fast as it was with iOS 4, no need to worry there.
 
They will withhold some features most likely so you have to "upgrade" to an iPhone 5 to get them.

Remember when 3GS had wi-fi hotspot, custom SMS etc during beta iOS, then suddenly "couldn't handle it"...

Don't be too surprised if they do the same with the iPhone 4
 
My hunch is that all the voice control stuff that came from the Siri acquisition is going to be an iPhone 5 only feature.

They have to give people a reason to get the iPhone 5 after all.
 
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