iPad iPad 10.2" prediction: Face ID, 2200x1536 screen, 3 GB RAM, $429

Discussion in 'iPad' started by EugW, Apr 20, 2019.

  1. EugW, Apr 20, 2019
    Last edited: Aug 6, 2019

    EugW macrumors 603

    EugW

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    Jun 18, 2017
    #1
    I was thinking about the iPad 10.2" rumours and was trying to figure out what that might be. It seems to me the most reasonable guess may be that they've taken the form factor of the 9.7" but removed Touch ID and expanded the screen, making it a Face ID model. Taking a cue from the iPad Pro 11", which has a 1.43:1 aspect ratio, I think the iPad 2019 will be:

    2200x1536 at 264 ppi = 8.33"x5.82" = 10.2" diagonal (but not True Tone, wide colour gamut, or laminated)
    No screen notch
    Apple A12
    3 GB RAM
    Face ID
    64 GB storage or optional 256 GB
    Bluetooth 5
    No headphone jack
    8 Megapixel f/2.4 rear camera with 1080p HD video recording
    7 Megapixel f/2.2 front camera with 1080p HD video recording
    Two speakers
    Lightning, with USB 2 chipset. (No USB-C just yet.)
    Supports Apple Pencil 1 and Logitech Crayon

    Starting at US$399 US$429, but they would keep the 32 GB 2018 model iPad available for sale at $299.

    And then in 2020 or 2021, the 10.5" Air would become an 11" Air with Face ID, with either 3 or 4 GB RAM. The Pros would all move to 6 GB RAM in 2020.
     
  2. MyiBill macrumors 6502

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    #2
    The base model iPad wouldn’t have more features than the more expensive Air
     
  3. EugW, Apr 20, 2019
    Last edited: Apr 20, 2019

    EugW thread starter macrumors 603

    EugW

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    #3
    While it's true that Face ID is an upgrade over the iPad Air, the smaller screen, without True Tone, wide colour gamut, or lamination is a noticeable downgrade from the iPad Air. Plus the 10.2" form factor prevents it from be able to have a full-sized keyboard, and the 10.2" wouldn't have a Smart Connector anyway.

    Also as mentioned, the next version of the iPad Air would get an 11" screen with Face ID to round out the product line. The 10.5" iPad Air seems like a transitional product, basically a quick rehash of the 2017 iPad Pro (which is what I bought last month).

    Remember, Apple has done this sort of thing before. An old example that annoyed me to no end was when they introduced the 1 GHz Titanium PowerBook with USB 1. However, I really wanted a 12" PowerBook with USB 2 to replace my 12" iBook. Unfortunately, Apple decided not to introduce such a beast, so I bought that 15" PowerBook with USB 1. Then just 2 months later they introduced that 12" PowerBook with USB 2 for less money.
     
  4. Falhófnir macrumors 68040

    Falhófnir

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    Aug 19, 2017
    #4
    Don't think we're going to get a pro-design iPad outside of the Pros for a good while yet. 10.2" could have been a prototype or a misidentification, I'm very skeptical they will create a new chassis design for the most budget oriented model, especially if it would mean pushing the price up to where it's just competing with the Air.
     
  5. EugW thread starter macrumors 603

    EugW

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    Jun 18, 2017
    #5
    Why not? They would keep the 2018 model around for the price conscious.

    I can see the 10.2" model getting released just before Xmas, as it would make a perfect stocking stuffer.

    Apple is moving away from Touch ID for iDevices, and this is the perfect configuration to do it with, while pushing pricing up somewhat... on purpose.

    It reminds me a lot of the iPhone XR. It has everything that the iPhone XS Max has except the OLED screen and the 2nd camera lens (and the 4 GB RAM). Yet, the more-than-64-GB model of the XR costs $799 whereas the more-than-64-GB XS Max costs $1249. Furthermore, the XR has some higher specs than the XS, yet the more-than-64-GB XS costs $1149.
     
  6. Falhófnir macrumors 68040

    Falhófnir

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    Aug 19, 2017
    #6
    I just feel like if they were going to do this, it would have been what they released as the Air last month. That's already the step-up model, in features and price. I think this would be a model too far. Eventually they will probably replace the Air with the 11" Pro design (lacking quad speakers, promotion etc) and the cheapest iPad might get a redesign last of all along the lines of what you're suggesting here.
     
  7. EugW thread starter macrumors 603

    EugW

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    Jun 18, 2017
    #7
    So basically, your only beef with this prediction is the timing. I'm predicting a fall release for the 10.2" Face ID iPad.

    Remember though, if they release 10.2" in say November, that would be 8 months after the Air.

    Your proposed timeline really only may differ from mine by a few months.
     
  8. AutomaticApple macrumors 68000

    AutomaticApple

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    Massachusetts
    #8
    I hope that it’s exactly 10 inches!
     
  9. rui no onna macrumors 604

    rui no onna

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    Oct 25, 2013
    #9
    Too soon and too cheap. I believe the only iPads that might still be released this year will be on the high end.

    Refresh of the budget and mid-range lines probably won't be until Spring 2020.
     
  10. VertPin macrumors 6502a

    VertPin

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    #10
    I don’t expect that. I also believe any iPad with FaceID in this year or the next would be above $399.
     
  11. Falhófnir macrumors 68040

    Falhófnir

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    Aug 19, 2017
    #11
    Kind of, more than the timing itself I see it playing out slightly differently. First I think it's quite likely we could just see a chip bump for the existing 9.7" to an A12 to see it through another 18 months on sale, then I think they will prioritise the $499 Air in any redesign (as I say, presumably it will get the 11" design with a few changes like the Air 3 has over the 10.5" pro) and last of all they will move the 9.7" over to the new design, but keeping the $329 price point. So I don't think there will be a new $399 model, and I don't think there will be a model with the new design costing less than the Air until after the Air has also received the redesign.

    A rough exemplary timeline for clarity:
    • late 2019 - 9.7" iPad gets A12, no design change.
    • mid-late 2020 - iPad Air is redesigned using the chassis of the 11" but lacking certain features.
    • 2021 - 9.7" iPad is redesigned long the lines you mention, keeps the $329 price, or at most jumps to $349.
     
  12. EugW, Apr 20, 2019
    Last edited: Apr 20, 2019

    EugW thread starter macrumors 603

    EugW

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    #12
    Fair enough, and I previously might have predicted something that myself, but the issue here is two different well-respected leakers have said a 10.2" model will come, with one specifically mentioning 2019.

    Ming Chi Kuo: https://www.macrumors.com/2019/02/17/kuo-2019-ipad-pro-models-10-2-inch-ipad/
    CoinX: https://twitter.com/coiiiiiiiin/status/1105859133377396736

    CoinX was the person who leaked the 10.5" non-Pro.

    Here is CoinX's twitter history:

    Screen Shot 2019-04-20 at 12.54.35 PM.png

    For the record, the XS, XS Max, and XR all came out Sept. 21, and the Max weighs 208 g. They also come with the 5V/1A charger despite being able to fast charge with higher capacity chargers. The new 2018 iPad Pros came out Oct. 30, 2018, without headphone jacks, and only 5.9 mm thin. The new iPad mini 5 came out March 18, 2019. S/he also said the 10.5" non-Pro and the 10.2" iPad (to likely replace the 9.7") wouldn't come out at the same time.
    --- Post Merged, Apr 20, 2019 ---
    OK, $429 then. :)
     
  13. Falhófnir macrumors 68040

    Falhófnir

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    Aug 19, 2017
    #13
    Huh, well with Kuo I think it's fair to say while he's often on the nose with what, his when can be quite a way out, along with a few of the finer details. As for the other guy, I'm pretty stumped by the 10.2" rumour persisting tbh. It seems a bit of a waste of time to make a .5" larger basic iPad with no other changes, so who knows at this point, I'll be interested to see how things pan out!
     
  14. Wokis macrumors regular

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    Jul 3, 2012
    Location:
    Stockholm, Sweden
    #14
    I was going to guess the Ipad Air (3rd gen) chassis but with slightly bigger bezels. It would look logical in the current lineup.

    But yeah, if they’re going to introduce this one for Back to School, maybe they feel enough time will have passed to spice it up a notch and go for the pro design cues.
     
  15. EugW thread starter macrumors 603

    EugW

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    Jun 18, 2017
    #15
    I don't look at it that way. I look at the 10.5" Air as a dumbed down update to a 2017 design, the last update before the shift to an 11" non-Pro. Remember, the Pro shift to 11" already happened in 2018, leaving the 10.5" Pro in a weird position. They left the 10.5" in the lineup but at the original high pricing and I suspect it just didn't sell that well, even though it was cheaper than the 11". So, they decided to dumb it down to cut costs, and lowered the price at the same time. That hits a better price point for mainstream consumers, without their having to invest in a truly new but temporary product line.

    This reminds me of the failed aluminum 13" MacBook, but in reverse. It was too expensive compared to the old MacBooks and was priced more like a Pro. However, instead of dumbing it down further, the following year they added a FireWire port and a backlit keyboard, along with a bigger battery and faster CPU, and just called it a MacBook Pro even though it is otherwise identical to the previous year's MacBook.

    Now, Apple gets to collect the higher revenues of the 10.5" update for 7 months, and then later introduces the new base model for Xmas. At that point a lot of people will stop buying the Air, but the fact a 10.2" model has a poorer screen means that some people will either still buy the 10.5", or else wait a few months to see if an updated 11" non-Pro shows up.
     
  16. Populus, Apr 20, 2019
    Last edited: Apr 20, 2019

    Populus macrumors 6502a

    Populus

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    Aug 24, 2012
    Location:
    Valencia, Spain.
    #16
    I've had in mind this 10,2" iPad, although now I'm convinced that I will need at least 11" so I'm not waiting for this new iPad 10,2". BUT, I have thought about it, like @EugW

    For me there are two options:

    1) A new, smaller 10,2" iPad Pro, with a smaller Smart Keyboard Folio (it is possible, as they already had the 9,7" Keyboard Folio and it is easy to manufacture it in the new 2018 SKF format recycling some parts and machinery used for the previous 9,7" iPad Pro keyboard case). This could complete the 3 sizes in the iPad Pro lineup. It would fill the price the previous 10,5" iPad Pro had, between the new 500$ iPad Air, and the current 800$ base 11" iPad Pro. At 699$ would be my guess. Similar footprint to the 9,7" iPad, but with the design language of the new iPad Pro (No home button, Face ID, flat borders, USB-C, 4 speakers, etc)

    2) A new base iPad, like the one OP is depicting: Same body of the base 9,7" iPad, but replacing the front panel with a bigger screen and no home button. Plus the Face ID. This could be priced at a more affordable price, but more expensive than the current base iPad (which is strangely cheap for an Apple product).

    Validating this last, second option, is the fact that most of the iOS lineup has been updated to A12 processors, and the regular iPad is still carrying a A10 Fusion. The last CPU without a neural engine. I think Apple will update or replace this product sooner than later.
     
  17. EugW thread starter macrumors 603

    EugW

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    Jun 18, 2017
    #17
    I don't think they will go back to a 9.7" Pro. The problem with the 9.7" size is that it is impossible to develop a full sized keyboard for it (unless the screen has ginormous bezels). In fact, Apple specifically said it introduced the new 10.5" Pro size partially because its width can accommodate a full sized keyboard. They continued with this in the 11", since it is about the same physical width as the 10.5" Pro, just with smaller bezels.

    If you put a Smart Folio keyboard from the 10.5" Pro (and now Air) next to the one from the 11" Pro, you'll see that they have identical key spacing at 18 mm. You'll also see that if you go any smaller, the key spacing must get smaller, meaning it will no longer be a full sized keyboard. IIRC, the key spacing for the 9.7" Pro was 17.5 mm, which is smaller than is recommended for proper typing ergonomics. Furthermore, there have been studies that indicate that typing accuracy decreases below 18 mm.

    So, going forward:

    7.9 iPad mini, no Smart Connector
    9.7" iPad, no Smart Connector
    11" iPad, Smart Connector with full sized 18 mm keyboard
    11" iPad Pro, Smart Connector with full sized 18 mm keyboard
    12.9" iPad Pro, Smart Connector with full sized 19 mm keyboard

    *The US government recommends keyboards with key spacing from 18 to 19 mm.
     
  18. AJB1971 macrumors regular

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2011
    #18
    I think the education market is key to Apple’s plans for the 7th generation iPad, probably even more so than its predecessor.

    The introduction of the Air 3 has made a big difference to Apple’s line-up. Before that, the price gap between the 6th generation iPad and the Pro models was too great for a lot of consumers to consider upgrading, but now they have another option.

    I expect a lot of people will choose an Air 3 and it may become Apple’s biggest seller in the consumer marketplace. That leaves the 'budget' iPad more focused on the education market.

    The importance of the education market to Apple is why the 6th generation iPad represented such good value for money. It’s also why I expect its replacement to cost a similar amount.

    In terms of timing, it would make sense for the 7th generation model to be launched in time for the new school year, so I would expect it to be introduced in the summer.

    It will probably have the A11 processor to differentiate it from the Air 3.

    The significance of a 10.2” screen is that it will fit within the existing chassis and still allow enough space for Touch ID.
     
  19. Populus macrumors 6502a

    Populus

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    #19
    I think I didn't express myself correctly. I wasn't talking about a new 9,7" iPad Pro. My first option was a 10,2" iPad pro, which would have a similar external size to the 9,7" iPads, but with the iPad Pro design and features. The 9,7" iPad Pro had its own smart keyboard case, right? It could be done in that size. But with more screen.
     
  20. EugW thread starter macrumors 603

    EugW

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    Jun 18, 2017
    #20
    Yes the 9.7" Pro had its own Smart Keyboard case, but it was problematic, because the key spacing was too narrow. Uncomfortable for adults and caused inaccurate typing.

    A new 10.2" with Face ID would fit in about the same form factor, but the key spacing for such a keyboard would still be too narrow. Not ideal.

    Apple said it moved to the 10.5" (and now 11") size to accommodate a more appropriate keyboard size, and then discontinued the 9.7" Pro.
     
  21. Digitalguy macrumors regular

    Joined:
    Apr 15, 2019
    #21
    I tend to agree with this. Launch in June, A11, 3GB RAM, same body as air 2/pro 9.7 but with bigger screen and touch ID. Priced at 329 or max 349. This is only things that makes sense to me. And 6th gen discontinued.

    As for the keyboards, it’s funny how there is a lot of talk about spacing and key sizes when the Ipad pro 9.7 create keyboard is many times better then Apples 10.5 and 11 inch smart keyboard....(let alone the terrible 9.7). Even the brydge 9.7 (I have it too) is better than apple’s, though inferior to Logitech Create. By the way the create is superior to all the slim / type + etc made for the Air 2. That is to say it’s not just a matter of size. The shape / travel / and general feels can be more important than spacing. Another example is the similarly sized surface go keyboard, which is terrible. I have tested next to my 9.7 pro and while they look similar the Logitech is on another league.... I have typed this on the Create 9.7 at the same speed I write on my pc and with harly any mistake (and it feels even nicer than most of my pc keyboards) And even the ipad mini brydge, which by the way is better than the 9.7 brydge because it has more travel, is extremely good and feels better than many much larger keyboards, including apple ones... Makes the ipad mini a small laptop with which I can write as fast an on a normal one...
     
  22. tps3443, Apr 20, 2019
    Last edited: Apr 20, 2019

    tps3443 macrumors 6502a

    tps3443

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    #22
    It’s very possible that the new base 2019 or 2020 iPad will be just like this. These iPads will sell in mass quantities to the majority of all iPad users. And I see no reason why apple wouldn’t introduce faceID on a lower end device that cost $399.

    This gives apple the chance to make FaceID mainstream! And just because more expensive devices available now do not have it yet, doesn’t mean FaceID will not be on a cheaper iPad in the near future! Apple is cleaning out old stock and rehashing old bodies in to new devices to keep things fresh, while making some money the easiest way possible. It is time to move on from the home button though. They have already released the new iPad Air, that’s virtually a 10.5” iPad Pro body cut down specs here and there and a A12 cpu, and apple did the same thing with the iPad mini 5, that is a mini 4 with updated internals. And apple is making a lot of money by selling these updated but older devices, with only minor hardware changes. It is time to offer something new and FRESH, that doesn’t cost $950-$1,999.

    If apple doesn’t do it, someone else will! And Apple will most likely offer a $400 iPad as a mainstream device with FaceID! And just because something has FaceID doesn’t make it better, because it’ll have some short comings in other areas too. Camera quality, screen quality, ram amount, etc.etc.

    Also, It is very possible that the price increases, and it could be a little more expensive than the $329 starting price.
     
  23. rui no onna macrumors 604

    rui no onna

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    Oct 25, 2013
    #23
    Apple likes high profits. The iPhone XR MSRP is $750 which is more iPhone Plus pricing rather than normal iPhone. Apple didn't even release a XS-sized version of the XR for $650 in 2018.

    I expect we will see FaceID and a redesign on less expensive iPads in future. I just don't see it being in the very near future and not at below iPad Air pricing. Apple's also gonna try to milk a redesign for all its worth so I expect it'll either go into mid-range first or as simultaneous update to both mid-range and entry level.

    Android manufacturers apart from Samsung and Amazon have pretty much given up on Android tablets. I expect the Amazon Fire is the best selling Android tablet in the market and Amazon has largely given up on premium features in favor of rock bottom pricing.
     
  24. TigeRick macrumors newbie

    TigeRick

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    Location:
    Malaysia
    #24
    Your timing seems odd, no way Apple going to release new entry iPad with Face ID while iPad Air 10.5 just being launched and we expect Air has few years lifespan ahead...

    So my prediction of entry iPad refresh would be:

    The same parts:
    2200x1536 at 264 ppi = 8.33"x5.82" = 10.2" diagonal (but not True Tone, wide colour gamut, or laminated)
    3 GB RAM
    64 GB storage or optional 256 GB
    Bluetooth 5
    8 Megapixel f/2.4 rear camera with 1080p HD video recording
    7 Megapixel f/2.2 front camera with 1080p HD video recording
    Lightning, with USB 2 chipset. (No USB-C just yet.)
    Supports Apple Pencil 1 and Logitech Crayon

    The different parts:
    Apple A11
    Touch ID
    Single speaker
    Headphone jack
    Smart keyboard connector

    Price may maintain at $329 which fully replace current iPad.
     
  25. Populus, Apr 21, 2019
    Last edited: Apr 21, 2019

    Populus macrumors 6502a

    Populus

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    #25
    Yeah, but how do you stick a bigger display, AND Touch ID on the same 9.7" iPad body? It's impossible. That's why we are considering Face ID, to eliminate the Home Button and have a bigger screen on the same overall size.

    Oh... You mean making a bigger body... But not as big as the iPad 10,5" (Pro/Air)? So you're suggesting Apple is going to design and build a whole new body for the cheapest iPad? Sure.

    Let me refresh you who are we talking about: Apple, the recycling company. The company that not only recycles it's own aluminum (which is cool), but also recycles designs to lower costs and raise the benefits.

    They recycled the iPad Air (2013) design to bring the cheaper iPad 5th and 6th gen base iPad (2018). Recycled the iPad Pro 10,5" design to bring us a cheaper iPad Air. Recycled the iPhone 5, 5S design to bring the cheaper iPhone SE. And probably they are going to recycle the iPhone (6, 6S, 7...) 8 design to bring us a not much cheaper SE2 next year.

    Do you expect them to design and build a whole new body for the cheapest basic iPad? No, it's not gonna happen. That's the most expensive thing about making a new product, not the SoC.

    You point an A11 chip, and I will again disagree with you, based on what Apple has done in the past.

    All the lineup has the already basepoint processor, the A12 bionic. If Apple releases a new base iPad, it will carry a A12 chip, it's the new A5/A8, if you remember how this were implemented as basic configurations. The new base standard is the A12, and it's much cheaper for Apple to only produce A12 in big quantities, than produce a small amount of the bigger A11.

    It's all about production scale, at least for Apple, who is not going to offer a cheap device unless it's manufacturing cost is low enough. And that's only possible with recycled parts and recycled manufacturing process.

    For Apple, benefits per sold unit are the most important thing. They're not going to design a new device, with a new manufacturing plant, new machines and so on, if they aren't going to charge at least the double (like with the new, expensive Pros).
     

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