So there is an oft floated rumor that the iPad 3 may be out before the holidays (at least before the end of 2011). Some potential buyers speculate that this will be the REAL next gen iPad with higher resolution display and other bells and whistles. Some also use this speculation as a rationale for skipping the iPad2.
Based on the iPad 2 sales and other technical limitations I say forget seeing an iPad 3 any sooner than a year from now.
Technically, I just don't see current hardware doing justice to as many pixels as an iPad would have if it were constructed with a Retina display. The power needed would wipe out the battery life that people expect from an iPad. Not to mention that another display would fragment the market further making development projections and software distribution much more wonky.
More importantly, why would Apple even think that they NEED to come up with a fast refresh? There is no competition on the scene, they have locked up the supply chain for the parts needed, and their iPad 2 is selling very well. Further, with the current rate of iPad 2 uptake why would they risk the backlash of cynical consumers who worry about technological obsolecence? It is likely that some buyers will not see their iPad 2 until early May. That is only 5 months away from the Holiday shopping season. If Apple were to roll out a serious upgrade at that time it could likely alienate an avid customer base and drive the resale value of iPad 2 hardware, not even a year old, right into the hopper.
No, I'd say the iPad is following the same trajectory of the iPhone 3G. The iPad 2 is analogous to the iPhone 3GS. Maybe in a year they'll roll out a big upgrade (e.g. iPhone 4). But then again, maybe not. If they still own the market then, why bother? No sense playing a trump card until your worried about losing the table.
At this point I'd say if you fancy an iPad, no reason to wait. There isn't a white-knight iPad 3 with a Retina display coming to save you before 2012. IMHO at least.
What say you?
Based on the iPad 2 sales and other technical limitations I say forget seeing an iPad 3 any sooner than a year from now.
Technically, I just don't see current hardware doing justice to as many pixels as an iPad would have if it were constructed with a Retina display. The power needed would wipe out the battery life that people expect from an iPad. Not to mention that another display would fragment the market further making development projections and software distribution much more wonky.
More importantly, why would Apple even think that they NEED to come up with a fast refresh? There is no competition on the scene, they have locked up the supply chain for the parts needed, and their iPad 2 is selling very well. Further, with the current rate of iPad 2 uptake why would they risk the backlash of cynical consumers who worry about technological obsolecence? It is likely that some buyers will not see their iPad 2 until early May. That is only 5 months away from the Holiday shopping season. If Apple were to roll out a serious upgrade at that time it could likely alienate an avid customer base and drive the resale value of iPad 2 hardware, not even a year old, right into the hopper.
No, I'd say the iPad is following the same trajectory of the iPhone 3G. The iPad 2 is analogous to the iPhone 3GS. Maybe in a year they'll roll out a big upgrade (e.g. iPhone 4). But then again, maybe not. If they still own the market then, why bother? No sense playing a trump card until your worried about losing the table.
At this point I'd say if you fancy an iPad, no reason to wait. There isn't a white-knight iPad 3 with a Retina display coming to save you before 2012. IMHO at least.
What say you?
