iPad Competitors Begin to Disappear Even Before Being Released

[Bytor65]

Still Bet HP Windows Slate will Ship.

The more I think about this, the more I am convinced that HP will still ship the windows based slate.

If they had a business case before Palm, they still have one now. They were front and center at CES, they have continued to release promotional video. Specs and even competitive position materials have leaked.

To meet the summer ship date, they would have to at least be in sample production runs now, they would need to have signed supply contracts.

To chuck it and go back to the drawing board now, will cost them money, will cost them reputation and will potentially hurt reputation with Microsoft.

So I think we will see the Windows Slate, which will give them time to work on a WebOS slate.

 

[LagunaSol]

To chuck it and go back to the drawing board now, will cost them money, will cost them reputation and will potentially hurt reputation with Microsoft.

Manufacturing and shipping a doomed product would cost them even more money and reputation.

Killing the thing before letting it out of the cage would be a smart move.

An even smarter move would be to focus exclusively on WebOS and give up the silly fantasy of Windows 7 on a small tablet.

 

[Bytor65]

Manufacturing and shipping a doomed product would cost them even more money and reputation.

Killing the thing before letting it out of the cage would be a smart move.

An even smarter move would be to focus exclusively on WebOS and give up the silly fantasy of Windows 7 on a small tablet.

I agree that windows is a poor choice for a table, but there are huge amounts of Apple hating windows fans that wanted this according to many on other forums and even some here.

WebOS doesn't change that much. Info was that HP was working on both Windows and Android tablets. WebOS logically replaces Android in that scenario.

The question is what has changed in the short term with the Palm acquisition? Nothing. If the HP slate was a viable product before the bought Palm, it is still a viable product after. If it wasn't viable before, WTH were they doing?

Again, I agree, Windows is a poor tablet choice and I wouldn't buy it, but that doesn't mean it would be a failed product in the market place full of windows users.

With nearly all the development costs already sunk, promotional efforts underway, trial production likely, supplier contracts likely lined up. Actually producing some number will get some revenue and some unit profit to offset all the sunk costs, even if volume isn't as high as desired. To cancel now, is pure loss... The smart time to cancel was before millions were sunk into development and production readiness.

But this is just my bet. Time will tell.

 

[cmaier]

With nearly all the development costs already sunk, promotional efforts underway, trial production likely, supplier contracts likely lined up. Actually producing some number will get some revenue and some unit profit to offset all the sunk costs, even if volume isn't as high as desired. To cancel now, is pure loss...

Smart investors and smart companies don't continue to throw good money after bad.

 

[LagunaSol]

I agree that windows is a poor choice for a table, but there are huge amounts of Apple hating windows fans that wanted this according to many on other forums and even some here.

They wanted this only as an Apple foil. They didn't want this as a product they would actually buy.

Windows tablets have been around for years. No one is buying them.

WebOS doesn't change that much. Info was that HP was working on both Windows and Android tablets. WebOS logically replaces Android in that scenario.

Why wouldn't WebOS logically replace Windows in that scenario?

Personally I think it silly to focus on two disparate OSes, regardless of which OSes they are. It didn't work for Palm, it won't work for HP.

The question is what has changed in the short term with the Palm acquisition? Nothing. If the HP slate was a viable product before the bought Palm, it is still a viable product after. If it wasn't viable before, WTH were they doing?

It obviously wasn't a viable product before. What were they doing? Doing what HP and Microsoft do best - trying to follow the path Apple is blazing, and doing it in a clumsy way.

Actually producing some number will get some revenue and some unit profit to offset all the sunk costs, even if volume isn't as high as desired.

But probably not enough to offset the additional cost of producing some and getting them on store shelves. If the product is bad (poor battery life, sluggish UI), no one will buy it. Producing a single unit is just an additional loss. Why bother?

To cancel now, is pure loss... The smart time to cancel was before millions were sunk into development and production readiness.

Better a smaller "pure loss" than a bigger "pure loss." Sure, it would have been smart to kill this early. Hindsight.

How many products has Apple killed before shipping? Probably a lot. We'll never know. Because Apple doesn't show off products that are in the "We hope this will work" stage of development.

Its competitors may be wise to follow this guiding principle. But of course they won't. They'll keep doing what they do.

I can't wait to start hearing whispers about Apple's next product category just to see what Microsoft will come up with in response.

Ballmer tried to preempt the iPad with the Slate demo. Comedy gold, in retrospect. Though Ballmer is king when it comes to sticking the proverbial foot in the proverbial mouth.

You know the Slate was all about image for Microsoft. As they typically do, they counted on HP to fall on its sword on the hardware end just to have something to show off. Frankly, being beholden to Microsoft does HP and Dell no favors, which makes the Palm acquisition a smart move in my book. Why scratch out razor-thin hardware margins just to peddle Microsoft's high-margin software? Someone's been getting played for years, and it appears they may finally be tired of it.

 

[Bytor65]

It obviously wasn't a viable product before. What were they doing? Doing what HP and Microsoft do best - trying to follow the path Apple is blazing, and doing it in a clumsy way.

Again. If it obviously wasn't viable before, it doesn't make sense that HP dumped all the money into taking it this far. They only realized it didn't make sense after buying Palm? The question I have is what has materially changed. IMO nothing and it will ship.

But probably not enough to offset the additional cost of producing some and getting them on store shelves. If the product is bad (poor battery life, sluggish UI), no one will buy it. Producing a single unit is just an additional loss. Why bother?

They could do one small production run and be almost assured that it would sell out. They would lose no additional money and save reputation if nothing else.

This is all speculation on everyones part at this point, but I can't see anything that has materially changed. WebOS doesn't really do much that Android didn't make available to HP before, except ownership, but that is a longer term thing.

Just about the only case I can make for ending production is that when the iPad was announced, HP was take completely by surprise by the quality/price and they have been fighting internally since about whether to can the slate project and now they will use Palm acquisition as convenient excuse.

But either way I won't be terribly surprised, I just suspect, they will ship, perhaps in a half hearted manner. They have something to hold over till a WebOS product is ready, then they can discontinue and claim the market chose WebOS slate. If they invest time/money/promotion getting production ready and can it at the last minute, they look like a bunch of idiots.

I am definitely interested in an offcial announcement on this one.

 

[LagunaSol]

Just about the only case I can make for ending production is that when the iPad was announced, HP was take completely by surprise by the quality/price and they have been fighting internally since about whether to can the slate project and now they will use Palm acquisition as convenient excuse.

I think you've hit the nail on the head.

 

[Bytor65]

It looks like it isn't dead yet. Likely for the reasons I stated. Note I don't think a windows slate is great idea, I just think that buying Palm isn't enough reason to kill this project.

http://www.engadget.com/2010/07/21/hp-confirms-slate-alive-and-well-determining-next-steps-on-t/

 

[JeffDM]

It looks like it isn't dead yet. Likely for the reasons I stated. Note I don't think a windows slate is great idea, I just think that buying Palm isn't enough reason to kill this project.

http://www.engadget.com/2010/07/21/hp-confirms-slate-alive-and-well-determining-next-steps-on-t/

I thought their stated plan was to morph it into a WebOS device, not a death but redirection. I think there is a market for a Windows 7 tablet, I don't think it would live up to consumer expectations and be a niche player except in business environments, maybe even a niche in those environments too.

A WebOS tablet would probably fare much better with consumers.

 

[Bytor65]

I thought their stated plan was to morph it into a WebOS device, not a death but redirection. I think there is a market for a Windows 7 tablet, I don't think it would live up to consumer expectations and be a niche player except in business environments, maybe even a niche in those environments too.

A WebOS tablet would probably fare much better with consumers.

They were doing an Android slate and a Windows slate. A windows slate HW isn't the best choice for webos, you don't need x86 for webos.

The Android slate is dead IMO as it slots in nearly the same place as the WebOs slate. Both will be custom linux kernel based running on ARM processors.

Windows slates are are for those who explicitly want desktop windows on a small slate. They likely are not interested in what they perceive as cut down OS. I think this is a small niche, but it isn't really replaceable with webOS to those users.

Those interested in an Android slate will probably see WebOS as another comparable option.