IPad Interest Slowing?

boltjames

macrumors 601
May 2, 2010
4,276
2,503
The iPad was selling 170,000 units a day in Q4. I expect that number will be exceeded in Q1...
Eventually you get to a point where the market is saturated and those initial spikes fall off dramatically. There is a finite amount of consumers for a $650 tablet that duplicates functionality found in PC's and Smartphones.

The iPad is only 2 years old, smashed records for volume and revenue in the +$500 computing sector, and the fact is that 80% of iPad buyers aren't flipping an expensive item like that in under 24 months. If it weren't for the speed boost and the retina display, I'd have happily stuck with my iPad 1 simply because it was meeting my expectations and there wouldn't have been a need to upgrade.

The market for the The New iPad looks like this:

30% = iPad 1 upgraders
65% = New tablet buyers and/or second-in-household tablet buyers (ie for the wife)
5% = iPad 2 upgraders

Point being that the largest current existing market of buyers are very satisfied with their 2010 or 2011 iPad's and aren't thinking of plunking down another $650 for something that's working well for them.

BJ
 

PhoneI

macrumors 68000
Mar 7, 2008
1,562
472
I expect the apple announcement this week that millions of iPad 3's have been sold. I went to the apple store near my house last night, and a sales rep told me they sold thousands in the first 24 hours.
 

Ciri

macrumors member
Mar 17, 2012
41
0
But let's face it: There are a lot of people on here that was going to buy the next iPad no matter what. They'd have pre-ordered a year in advance if they could. Like me, I'll be buying the next iPhone even if it's made out of wood. I love them so much, I don't care. Isn't that true?

Then there are the others that have to actually evaluate the product and decide whether they want it and if it's right for them. I can relate to them.
 

truthiness

macrumors regular
Jun 10, 2008
193
33
I do think it's slowed. My Target had 20 units on launch day and at the end of the day they still had 5 left, albeit they were the 64GB ATT models. You can say that Apple provided enough stock this year, but if they are only supplying retail outlets 5-20 devices to sell and stock is still remaining, that doesn't add up to demand being that great.
 

bawbac

macrumors 65816
Mar 2, 2012
1,232
47
Seattle, WA
Believe it or not $400-500+ is a substantial amount to most people.
With the Kindle Fire release and $200 price point, it's becoming harder for people to justify double or more cost for what the tablet is mainly used for, casual usage and not a primary computer.

Tablets are convenient and portable but not necessary if you already own a smart phone and/or computer.
 

Cutwolf

macrumors 6502
Oct 11, 2010
395
0
This is the downside of ensuring availability for everyone.

If you think previous iPads were scarce because of actual manufacturing problems, I have a bridge to sell you.

Scarcity increases perceived value and keeps you in the news cycle longer.

Availability pleases the customers who want one, but decreases perceived value and shortens your news cycle.
Truth in quotes.
 

Built

macrumors 68020
Oct 3, 2007
2,106
19
Los Angeles
I do think it's slowed. My Target had 20 units on launch day and at the end of the day they still had 5 left, albeit they were the 64GB ATT models. You can say that Apple provided enough stock this year, but if they are only supplying retail outlets 5-20 devices to sell and stock is still remaining, that doesn't add up to demand being that great.
The supply in the field is CLEARLY far greater this year than last.

In your scenario above, that Target may have only received one or two units on iPad2 launch day last year...not 20...

I remember VERY clearly the reports of the miniscule numbers being delivered to each store (ie Best Buy, Target, Walmart)...IIRC, there was a report last year of a Walmart store only receiving ONE for launch day.
 

Mortalias

macrumors 6502
Aug 24, 2011
351
0
Los Angeles, CA
Something about the naming decision is interesting to me...

The fact that they are just calling it "iPad" seems like they don't plan on updating it for next year or two years, so that nearly everyone can eventually get in the tablet market and inevitably choose an iPad.

Just imagine the sales over a period of 2 years if this is true. Inventory levels mean nothing.
 

erawsd

macrumors 6502
Jul 1, 2011
279
0
Something about the naming decision is interesting to me...

The fact that they are just calling it "iPad" seems like they don't plan on updating it for next year or two years, so that nearly everyone can eventually get in the tablet market and inevitably choose an iPad.

Just imagine the sales over a period of 2 years if this is true. Inventory levels mean nothing.
I doubt it. I think Apple is just starting to realize how ridiculous the numbering system will get. I expect they'll do the same with the iPhone.
 

noteple

macrumors 65816
Aug 30, 2011
1,407
323
I do think it's slowed. My Target had 20 units on launch day and at the end of the day they still had 5 left, albeit they were the 64GB ATT models. You can say that Apple provided enough stock this year, but if they are only supplying retail outlets 5-20 devices to sell and stock is still remaining, that doesn't add up to demand being that great.
The stores by me had limited stock left, but were turning customers away

How can this be? Not meeting their customer demographic.

Some wanted white... Sold Out.
Some wanted WiFi 16GB.... Sold Out.
Some wanted Verizon with a certain size of Flash. Sold Out.

When customers stop coming in then you could say that interest has peeked.

Mostly Black AT&T 64GB were left.
 

firstapple

macrumors 6502a
Sep 25, 2007
991
19
I would say it is still too early to tell. I am waiting for Apple to come out and tell everyone just how good sales were. If sales don't meet expectations I don't expect Apple to come out and say anything. If they sell more than iPad 2 sold during it's first weekend you can definitely expect an announcement, as Apple loves to brag about these things.
 

aka777

macrumors 6502a
Mar 13, 2012
819
373
I love my iPad 3 but do not consider it revolutnary.
I don't know what more they could have done to make this revolutionary.

Smartphone and tablets are becoming like desktops and laptops. Yes, at first everyone is amazed but who now honestly cares about the next iMac or macbook. If you are in the market, you will buy one, but very few are going to rush out and replace their $1K machine every year.
 

Stealthipad

macrumors 68040
Apr 30, 2010
3,223
7
I don't know what more they could have done to make this revolutionary.

Smartphone and tablets are becoming like desktops and laptops. Yes, at first everyone is amazed but who now honestly cares about the next iMac or macbook. If you are in the market, you will buy one, but very few are going to rush out and replace their $1K machine every year.
I do not think they could. The problem is Apple's hype prior to release get a lot of people think it will be:p
 

matttye

macrumors 601
Mar 25, 2009
4,956
30
Lincoln, England
I don't know what more they could have done to make this revolutionary.

Smartphone and tablets are becoming like desktops and laptops. Yes, at first everyone is amazed but who now honestly cares about the next iMac or macbook. If you are in the market, you will buy one, but very few are going to rush out and replace their $1K machine every year.
Apple hasn't had a revolutionary device since the first iPhone, and that's not a bad thing. Dumb phones worked, and worked really quite well, until smartphones (or more specifically, in my case, the iPhone) came along. Now smartphones work really well and will continue to do so for a number of years until something new and fantastic comes along. Probably the eye/brain controlled devices that have been demonstrated lately.

When you think about it, all of apples iPhones and iPads have simply built on the iPhone 1. Nothing has completely changed in the way it is used. Therefore there has been no new revolutionary device from apple since...2006 I think?

That's good because it takes people time to adapt to new technology. We don't want the way we use things to completely change every year. Little improvements are good :) unfortunately not good enough for me to buy the new iPad, but maybe next years will be.
 

aka777

macrumors 6502a
Mar 13, 2012
819
373
I agree with both posts. Apple's veil of secrecy seems to be working against them, as it sets expectations extremely high.

I think the next improvements will come in the form of battery life and possibly weight. The form factor is already good, how much thinner can an iPad and iPhone get really? They'd have to build them out of titanium to be able to support anything thinner.

Apple should not get caught up in the game other manufacturers play with having to build something every 6 to 8 months. Most people just want a solid product that works well and are not interested in the # of cores.

In the future, what I would personally like is an iPad with desktop like web browsing, decent battery, and to be able to choose any 4G carrier from one model. Nevertheless, I am still happy with the ipad 3, as I was with the 1 the day prior to getting the 3, and I'm a tech buff.
 

firstapple

macrumors 6502a
Sep 25, 2007
991
19
I've been observing this whole situation from the beginning. And it's amazing.

Have you read the article, We Gave People an iPad 2, Told Them It Was the New iPad, and They Loved It?

It's so interesting..http://cdn.static.viddler.com/flash/as3/mini-publisher.swf?ref=www.overclock.net&key=e33ae452

People honestly can't tell the difference.
This is a pretty lame video. Most of these people seem like they have never held an iPad before, at least not an iPad 2. So how can this be a true real world test? All this is saying is that the iPad 2 was pretty awesome and that the newest iPad is even better. I don't get how this proves anything... If you want an iPad 2 go buy it, it's $100 less than the new iPad.
 

/dev/toaster

macrumors 68020
Feb 23, 2006
2,473
248
San Francisco, CA
Pre-ordering is so much easier. Apple has really nailed down the proper number of units to produce prior to launch. There is very little reason to stand in line all day at the Apple store. FedEx within reason delivers it by end of day on the launch day. I had some friends get theirs at 10am and I got mine at 6pm or so. They were super busy and I heard that FedEx had to hire contractors to deal with the spike in delivery demand.

I used to stand in line for previous models, when supplies were very limited. But pre-order is so much less of a hassle.

I have about 3 or 4 friends who had never owned an iPad, pre-order it the day it was announced. At this point everyone knows what an iPad is or how it works. I can't remember the last time I ran into someone who hasn't played around with one at least once. So, I really doubt that is why the stores aren't totally packed.

I guess we will see when Apple releases sales results.
 

DS3

macrumors 6502a
Mar 7, 2011
504
0
I've been observing this whole situation from the beginning. And it's amazing.

Have you read the article, We Gave People an iPad 2, Told Them It Was the New iPad, and They Loved It?

It's so interesting..http://cdn.static.viddler.com/flash/as3/mini-publisher.swf?ref=www.overclock.net&key=e33ae452

People honestly can't tell the difference.
iPad 2 still a great device, news at 11.

Now hand them an iPad 3, tell them nothing about its upgrades, get them to look at a few photos, read a page of a book, etc. and then ask if they notice anything different. Theres the test.
 

KPOM

macrumors G5
Oct 23, 2010
14,494
3,035
Windows 8 being just around the corner probably has an effect.
I doubt it. I really don't see much buzz about Windows 8 except among the hard core tech writer crowd. I would venture to guess that if you stood on a street corner and talked to random people, most would be aware of the new iPad and very few would be aware of Windows 8.
 

Eric8199

macrumors 6502a
Feb 27, 2009
753
133
I don't know where ou guys are at, but where I am they are sold out everywhere. I have friends in other parts of the country where they are also sold out. Just because they weren't sold out when you went to the store to get yours on Friday or even Saturday doesn't mean they aren't sold out today.
 

Dstopsie

macrumors 6502a
Jun 22, 2010
791
230
LOS ANGELES BABY!!
Wirelessly posted (Mozilla/5.0 (iPhone; CPU iPhone OS 5_1 like Mac OS X) AppleWebKit/534.46 (KHTML, like Gecko) Version/5.1 Mobile/9B179 Safari/7534.48.3)

I live in Los angeles and while the store closest to me did. It experience long lines on launch day they have been packed ever since and sales have been very high. Just about every person who walked out of that store had anew iPad 3 in hand.

I visited 2 other stores, friend was looking for a particular iphone case, and the same thing was at the stores. Packed busy and lots
Of people buying iPads.

I really think the pre order made a huge difference in line ups.
 
We'll have to see if Apple announces any official numbers to know for sure, but it seems like Apple definitely had anticipated greater demand. I'm not saying Apple wanted to run out at every store, but I think supply exceeded demand a bit too much.

I think another factor could be that the iPad is losing its "I need it on day 1!" effect. I think most people either already own an iPad and are satisfied with just ordering the new one online and waiting for it to come in, or don't own an iPad and therefore aren't tech obsessed so can wait till the initial weekend hype dies down.
 

UrsaMajor

macrumors regular
Jan 4, 2007
130
0
While I'm sure Apple took massive preorders, the lack of retail interest is surprising.

Preorders generally come from existing owners.
New buyers often want to see something in store before spending,
and store activity seems quiet, or at least quieter than expected.

Is it possible tablet interest has peaked?
Everyone that wanted a pad got the ipad2. And all the droid models out there. People only have so much money so...

Apple has got to lower their price to get new people onboard