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Is it usually hard to get into the mall on a Friday night? That is your guide. There aren't 1/1000th the Apple nerds out there that the people on these forums seem to think.
Look at the number of views on these threads. A few thousand. Spread out all over the world. Most people have more important **** going on in their lives than standing in line on a workday to buy an iPad. My prediction: there will be lines at 5 when the stores open. Around 5:45 there won't be, and any iPad you want will be available for the taking.
Get off the forums for a bit and walk out into the general public. Probably 25% of the population realizes the new iPad is coming out. 10% of those people realize it is tomorrow night. 1% of those people want it this weekend. 1% of those people are willing to stand in line.