It would be stupid if they did. I say so because even the Mini 3 is ahead of the Air, because it has Touch ID, which we all know is a very useful feature. I actually expect it to be more like the original Mini, in that it is not a shrunken down Air 2 or Air 3, but somewhere in between, like the original Mini was with the iPad 2 and iPad 4.
Here's what I mean:
iPad 4: iPad 2 + better internals, higher resolution, better cameras and Siri
iPad Mini: Smaller iPad 2 + better cameras and Siri
And then according to that, here's what I think will happen later this year (this is all speculation):
iPad Air 3: iPad Air 2 + better internals, better battery life, better cameras and Force Touch
iPad Mini 4: Smaller iPad Air 2 + better cameras and Force Touch
What do you think?