iPad Sales

kickandglide

macrumors newbie
Original poster
Jul 3, 2009
17
0
I believe the iPhone sold 1.1 million units in its first full quarter (correct me if I'm wrong). How many iPads do you think will sell in its first full quarter?
 

t0mat0

macrumors 603
Aug 29, 2006
5,425
263
Home
We may hear a stretch goal or similar at the release. But some analysts estimate 4-5 million. Do we know their capacity?
PIck a million - 4-10
 

vini-vidi-vici

macrumors 6502
Jan 7, 2010
416
0
I think it'll sell better than the iPhone, here's why:

- People have phone contracts and can't or don't want to switch right away... they'd rather wait a couple months and see.

- $70/month for a phone is a lot more than a one-time expense for a much bigger screen on the iPad.

- People are already familiar with the "concept" of the way the iPad works (touch screen, apps store, accelerometer, etc). They'll "get it" much more quickly.

- There will be a ton of cool apps "ready to go" at launch.

- The iPad is a more social device, and will be an easier sell "friend to friend". someone passes you their iPad to look at their photos, and you're sitting there thinking $499 for this? hmm... and it has all these cool apps too. (Then you go to the store and get the slightly more expensive model at the last minute).
 

3N16MA

macrumors 65816
Jul 23, 2009
1,011
177
Space
I will be buying 1.5 million units the first week so Apple has nothing to worry about.
 

bozzykid

macrumors 68020
Aug 11, 2009
2,176
232
- $70/month for a phone is a lot more than a one-time expense for a much bigger screen on the iPad.
The cheapest iPad is still $400 more expensive than the cheapest iPhone though. For many people that will be a big barrier to entry.
 

vini-vidi-vici

macrumors 6502
Jan 7, 2010
416
0
The cheapest iPad is still $400 more expensive than the cheapest iPhone though. For many people that will be a big barrier to entry.
But it's not... I've never understood people's logic with this kind of thing. When you buy an iPhone, you're signing up to pay at least $840 a year, PLUS whatever the thing costs up-front for the device... For a phone? and really, you're signing up for a 2 year contract. That's why I've never bought one. I have a cheap phone, and an iPod Touch... and I know a lot of people who have this combo.

Are people really so basic in their thinking that they don't "do the math" and realize what they're really spending?

In fairness, I guess if you need a phone anyway, you're going to pay something, so the real cost of the iPhone is $70 minus whatever else you'd pay... but still - that's a lot of money for a phone... even a very cool phone.
 

kdesign7

macrumors 6502a
Feb 1, 2010
646
3
earth, for now.
Honestly,

I believe in the FIRST quarter, Apple could sell around 1.5million.

But by the time the iPad is released, the new iPhone may be released as well, which will canabilize sales.

I think shortly after the release of the iPhone, the iPad will skyrocket, to nearly 3-4million units in the second quarter.

But those are just my opinions. :D
 

bossxii

macrumors 68000
Nov 9, 2008
1,749
0
Kansas City
The cheapest iPad is still $400 more expensive than the cheapest iPhone though. For many people that will be a big barrier to entry.
Wrong, in fact at the time of release the iPhone was $399 or $499? + 2 year contract... or $699/$799 without. (I think those were the numbers anyhow) Your not reading what he's asking... 1st quarter (2007 1g model) iPhones sales vs 1st quarter iPad sales.

If you want to compare now, even at $100 for an iPhone and 70/mo for a contract your 2 year cost is well over double the cost of the iPad. My guess is this very fact will make it rather attractive.

Plus as stated you won't be tied into a monthly fee to use the iPad.

I think it will see similar number in the first quarter after it's release 1 to 1.5 million.
 

kjanice2009

macrumors member
Dec 9, 2009
35
0
It is unpredictable! And i think apple ipad is just test for the market's reaction, soon the 2 generation will come out.
 

sushi

Moderator emeritus
Jul 19, 2002
15,630
3
キャンプスワ&#
I think that the iPad will sell very well. Probably surprise a few folks.

My guess is that the $499 will be the most popular version. It will be great for around the home and office for browsing and catching up on current events, completing e-mails, and maybe some light word processing with iWork.

The iPad will be so darn convenient. :)
 

kdesign7

macrumors 6502a
Feb 1, 2010
646
3
earth, for now.
I think that the iPad will sell very well. Probably surprise a few folks.

My guess is that the $499 will be the most popular version. It will be great for around the home and office for browsing and catching up on current events, completing e-mails, and maybe some light word processing with iWork.

The iPad will be so darn convenient. :)
Agreed!
 

greygray

macrumors 68000
Oct 22, 2009
1,848
1
A million for a start. We'll wait till sales pick up before we can decide.
 

Chupa Chupa

macrumors G5
Jul 16, 2002
14,830
7,369
Consensus among analyst is around 4-5m for the first year. Apple predicts 2x that amount. Historically Apple is conservative with its estimates so food for thought. I know of two that are sold right now, and that is just one family -- and the possibility of more sales from same family are good.

Ultimately, the iPad depends on compelling apps. From what I've seen so far that won't be an issue. Once solid s/w is in place I think the iPad is going to be one of those products people see and feel in store and can't resist to buy -- maybe not immediately, but for a special occasion -- graduation, birthday, holiday gift.
 

lordhamster

macrumors 6502a
Jan 23, 2008
691
281
The cheapest iPad is still $400 more expensive than the cheapest iPhone though. For many people that will be a big barrier to entry.
Yes, but its only about $200 to $250 more expensive than cheap computers. Not to mention no monthly fees. In fact, if you figure in the fees, this badboy is waaaay cheaper than any iPhone.
 

maflynn

Moderator
Staff member
May 3, 2009
63,851
30,366
Boston
This device is being directed at a different market that is admittedly smaller in size. So much so I doubt very much if the sales figures come close what the iPhone sold.

People were clamoring for a smart phone that was easy to use, had great functionality. There's less of a market for a device that sits between an iPhone and a laptop.
 

Chupa Chupa

macrumors G5
Jul 16, 2002
14,830
7,369
This device is being directed at a different market that is admittedly smaller in size. So much so I doubt very much if the sales figures come close what the iPhone sold.

People were clamoring for a smart phone that was easy to use, had great functionality. There's less of a market for a device that sits between an iPhone and a laptop.
Who admitted the target market is smaller? Please share your scientifically collected marketing data.
 

samcraig

macrumors P6
Jun 22, 2009
16,610
35,019
USA
You're talking phone to pad comparisons. Just because they both can handle 3G?

That's not necc the comparison to make

Why not compare # of ipod touches to ipad wifi. Both have no contracts and wifi. The price spread is pretty large at entry levels.

I have no idea what the sales would or could be - and everything is speculation.

But those that keep saying 499 is cheap are thinking narrow-mindedly. Not meant to insult. But the iPad is a LUXURY item. And while you might think 499 isn't that big of a deal - tell that to the rest of the US/World - especially since the economy hasn't made its recovery yet. Unemployment is still very high. People are losing their homes. 499, if you already have a computer and/or an iPhone or touch is not easy to justify. Easier if you don't have either of those - but still - it's not "CHEAP".

Is the iPad good value for 499 - sure. But it's still not cheap or affordable to many.
 

bozzykid

macrumors 68020
Aug 11, 2009
2,176
232
But it's not... I've never understood people's logic with this kind of thing. When you buy an iPhone, you're signing up to pay at least $840 a year, PLUS whatever the thing costs up-front for the device... For a phone? and really, you're signing up for a 2 year contract. That's why I've never bought one. I have a cheap phone, and an iPod Touch... and I know a lot of people who have this combo.
You may not agree with the logic, but it has been shown time and time again, that people will always choose the lower upfront cost even if it will cost more in the end. Just look at devices like TiVos. They tried to sell them at a premium with lifetime offers. It didn't take long to realize people aren't going to pay a lot upfront.
 

bozzykid

macrumors 68020
Aug 11, 2009
2,176
232
Wrong, in fact at the time of release the iPhone was $399 or $499? + 2 year contract... or $699/$799 without. (I think those were the numbers anyhow) Your not reading what he's asking... 1st quarter (2007 1g model) iPhones sales vs 1st quarter iPad sales.
I'm talking about the current market. I think the demand for iPhones will still be greater because of the price. Most people are going to see this is a big iPod Touch, so why not get an iPhone. I think the iPhone OS is a blessing and a curse. People with iPhone's probably will not be compelled to buy it because they already have the same functionality. And people without iPhone's will see more value in a iPhone since it includes an actual phone. The question will be, what is the target audience. If Apple can find the target audience for this device, then it may take off.