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u think people would still be using the 1 (considering how outdated it is now), when the 4th or 5th generation iPad comes out???

I don't know. I'd expect a lot of them to get handed down to kids. It depends what market your app is targeting.

Make sure to put analytics into any app you ship, so that you can see which devices your user base are using. That makes it a lot easier to work out when to drop support for things.
 
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