iPhone 12 Series Still Strong Despite Weaker Demand, Says JP Morgan Analyst

[MacRumors]

Quarterly shipments of Apple's iPhone 12 series continue to enjoy a year-on-year increase, despite weakening demand for the devices, according to JP Morgan analyst Samik Chatterjee (via AppleInsider).

In an investor note from the analyst, Chatterjee decreased his 2021 iPhone shipment expectations from 236 million units to 230 million units, but noted that this number was still equivalent to a 13% overall increase in volume shipments for Apple compared to 2020.

Chatterjee's revised expectations are based on a significant cut in iPhone 12 Pro shipments and weaker-than-expected demand for the iPhone 12 mini, both of which make the bank "take note of a weaker demand environment." Chatterjee continues to believe that Apple will discontinue iPhone 12 mini production in the second quarter this year.

A report at the start of the year suggested Apple's ‌iPhone 12 mini‌, which is the smallest ‌iPhone‌ that has been released since the 2016 iPhone SE, has not been selling as well as Apple hoped, making up just 6% of iPhone 12 sales in the U.S. in October and November. A later report claimed that the ‌iPhone 12 mini‌ accounted for only 5% of all ‌iPhone 12‌ sales in the U.S. in the first half of January.

• Will There Still Be an iPhone 13 Mini?

The JP Morgan analyst puts the slowing demand for the iPhone 12 series as a whole down to weaker consumer spending in China and a normalization of demand trends following the initial excitement surrounding Apple's adoption of 5G connectivity in the iPhone 12 series.

Chatterjee revised his shipment estimate to 52 million units for the March quarter, a 3 million decrease compared to his original expectations. For the June quarter, the analyst revised the number to 42 million units from 36 million units.

"However, at this time we do not see any reason to change our 2H21 volume forecast," said Chatterjee, noting that the supply chain is sticking with its 80 to 90 million build estimate for the first half of this year.

Article Link: iPhone 12 Series Still Strong Despite Weaker Demand, Says JP Morgan Analyst

 

[ian87w]

Meh, typical Apple cycle. Sales will keep slowing down until the next iPhone is released. Getting tired of analysts proclaiming the obvious.

 

[44267547]

This same re-hashed article rolls out almost every single year at this time, we’re six months into the halfway point from the iPhone 12 launch, which always has a drag in sales. But, I also suspect the unstable economy might have an affect on iPhone sales, which consumers probably won’t upgrade unless absolutely necessary.

 

[Romeo_Nightfall]

still STRONG

 

[DeepIn2U]

Meh, typical Apple cycle. Sales will keep slowing down until the next iPhone is released. Getting tired of analysts proclaiming the obvious.

This is a typical industry cycle not just Apple. And after years of talk of 'super-cycle' this launch is the closest we've seen of that - the numbers.

All this flack of the 12 mini ... I just purchased mine, full retail and it's charging updating the OS and will setup with decals and case after my workshift today. I'm LOVING the size, build quality and feel in the hand.

 

[DeepIn2U]

This same re-hashed article rolls out almost every single year at this time, we’re six months into the halfway point from the iPhone 12 launch, which always has a drag in sales. But, I also suspect the unstable economy might have an affect on iPhone sales, which consumers probably won’t upgrade unless absolutely necessary.

This isn't size months ... we're about to start the 4.5mth (mid-October 2020 launch).

 

[sdreamer07]

I mean, that 5% is still a dream for other manufacturers.

 

[CharlesShaw]

Lawn fertilizer ads during the Super Bowl are evidence that consumers have different spending priorities during a pandemic. I’m not sure how often my iPhone 12 mini will leave the apartment in 2021, but I still bought it as a reminder that one day I will care about how much it weighs in a pocket.

 

[Cosmosent]

I do NOT believe their numbers at all !

They, & others, remind me of a guy named Henry Blodget.

Got caught making up facts.

AAPL's iPhone Unit Sales have been running @ ~190M units per year the past few years.

5G is a boost, NO doubt, & interest is driven in large part by the cellular service providers, NOT just Apple.

Did AAPL get a 20% boost in sales (OR wait, we're calling them shipments in the article) ?

Possibly, but more-likely ONLY 10%, to ~209M units.

We are, AFTER all, still in a virus pandemic !

I do think the 12s/13 will sell better than the current models, for various reasons.

 

[7493920]

No way iPhone mini gets discontinued during second quarter. Maybe they decide to not continue to produce it at a lower price after the next generation iPhone gets introduced.

 

[ikramerica]

We did our part. My wife loves her valentines day 12 as a replacement for her old 6+. Granted it’s much much faster, but it’s also lighter and smaller for roughly the same screen width, higher dpi and much better main camera. She says she doesn’t miss touch ID, but I still would miss it.

 

[oldMacGenius]

If there wasn’t a pandemic and a reasonably priced new iPhone SE, sales would be stronger for iPhone 12, mini or otherwise.

The largest cohort of iPhone SE 2016 users bought the SE because they were concerned with the cost of a handset, in which lowest pricing for any iPhone holding steady over the years at $399. Many people I know upgraded to an 8, a 10R or 11. Today, if I was concerned about cost, the SE is hard to beat.

The pandemic has changed our habits greatly. I’m not walking around downtown trying to use my iPhone. I find there’s less opportunities of breaking it, the likelihood of replacing an older handset as a result also goes down.

Of course, if I’m no longer a mobile on the go user, I’m not gonna require as portable of a device, a device with 5G, or even unlimited data. I personally have dropped the purchase plan of a 12 Mini, and also have switched to prepaid.