Very shortsighted. Apple makes the real money on recurring subscriptions, not hardware. You can definitely argue that a shrinking device market share directly equates to a shrinking subscription services base which will upend their entire business model if it continues.
Additionally, you need to include the lost revenue from potential follow on peripheral purchases like watches, AirPods, etc. that will never happed with those 200,000 lost customers in your theoretical. The iPhone is the gateway into apple’s ecosystem - lose a phone customer, the whole business model takes a hit.