iPhone 18 Pro Event Could Hit Apple Shares, KeyBanc Warns

[MacRumors]

Apple's September 9 iPhone announcement event could become a negative catalyst for the stock, KeyBanc Capital Markets warns.

In a research note seen by Investing.com, KeyBanc said the event could motivate investors to weigh pricing decisions against the impact of higher costs on demand and margins. KeyBanc added that Apple faces a choice to either raise prices broadly to offset gross margin pressure, which could hurt unit volumes and trigger "sticker shock," or raise prices more selectively.

This could invite greater scrutiny of margins and raise the prospect of further price increases later down the line. The firm maintained an "Underweight" rating on Apple and a $250 price target, against a share price of $324.96 at the time of publication.

KeyBanc models total iPhone 18 lineup builds at around 80 million units across the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 and first quarter of fiscal 2027, down from roughly 91 million units a year earlier. The firm attributed most of the decline to the absence of a base iPhone 18 model in this part of the product cycle, with higher pricing and a richer product mix expected to partially offset the lower volumes.

KeyBanc is also expecting a $150 price increase for the iPhone 18 Pro, raising it to $1,249, and a $200 increase for the iPhone 18 Pro Max, raising it to $1,399. The firm expects the foldable "iPhone Ultra" to start at $2,199.

KeyBanc also pointed to a historical pattern of Apple shares weakening around iPhone announcements, with the stock averaging a 0.72% decline on announcement day over the past five years and a 1.22% decline five trading days later. Apple's "Surprise and shine" event commences at 10 a.m. Pacific time on Wednesday, September 9.

Article Link: iPhone 18 Pro Event Could Hit Apple Shares, KeyBanc Warns

 

[PixelPanics]

Experts are warning that AAPL might go up but it might also go down, crazy times eh?

 

[MayaUser]

Impossible, maybe just for 24hours

 

[svish]

Even if the stock price reduces after announcement, it should be back up in the near future. Was expecting foldable to start at $1999 before all the price hikes, now think $2199 is possible. For the Pro iPhones $200 hike could happen, $100 hike is very unlikely. Higer storage variants might cost much more.

 

[ralph_sws]

I’m afraid this could be just the beginning.
Apple has been pushing prices higher for years while giving people fewer reasons to upgrade. You can’t just add another $100 or $200 and assume the same customers will keep coming back every year.
I’ve bought every iPhone generation since the original, and even I’m now asking myself: why bother? It’s not that I can’t afford it. I just don’t see enough value in upgrading anymore.
That should worry Apple. Once even your most loyal customers start skipping generations because they no longer see the point, you have a bigger problem than people simply complaining about prices.
Higher prices can offset weaker sales for a while, but not forever.

 

[lenningj]

and thus wallets will remian closed, espeically for retail/in person shopping with this launch and the lowly trade in values when component inflation is taken into account

 

[Unregistered 4U]

Everyone wants to get in on Bloomberg’s beat 🙂

Not “could” but will. Like every year. But sure let’s pretend this is novel info. LOL

KeyBanc also pointed to a historical pattern of Apple shares weakening around iPhone announcements

OHhhhhhhh, so it’s Investing.com that wants their ads viewed. KeyBanc appears to be laying out everything as boring as it is… no opinions about Ternus either. 😀

 

[fezzzer]

I’m afraid this could be just the beginning.
Apple has been pushing prices higher for years while giving people fewer reasons to upgrade. You can’t just add another $100 or $200 and assume the same customers will keep coming back every year.
I’ve bought every iPhone generation since the original, and even I’m now asking myself: why bother? It’s not that I can’t afford it. I just don’t see enough value in upgrading anymore.
That should worry Apple. Once even your most loyal customers start skipping generations because they no longer see the point, you have a bigger problem than people simply complaining about prices.
Higher prices can offset weaker sales for a while, but not forever.

What are you talking about?

iPhone X was $999 with 64GB storage, Apple kept that price until the 16 Pro which was offered with 128GB.

They only raised the price to $1,099 last year, but upped the storage to 256GB.

I’m not sure how this indicates that Apple have been pushing prices higher for years?

Inflation alone would put the entry point to around $1,350.

Don’t get me wrong, I’d love Apple to keep the prices or lower them, but to claim they’ve been pushing prices higher just isn’t true.

 

[VisceralRealist]

Then they must cancel the event and protect the shareholders! 😦

 

[Nismo73]

Has KeyBanc gone to the gas pump lately?

 

[ralph_sws]

What are you talking about?

iPhone X was $999 with 64GB storage, Apple kept that price until the 16 Pro which was offered with 128GB.

They only raised the price to $1,099 last year, but upped the storage to 256GB.

I’m not sure how this indicates that Apple have been pushing prices higher for years?

Inflation alone would put the entry point to around $1,350.

Don’t get me wrong, I’d love Apple to keep the prices or lower them, but to claim they’ve been pushing prices higher just isn’t true.

Fair point — I phrased that too broadly. The Pro did stay at $999 for a long time, especially in the US.
My point was more about where Apple is heading now. The 17 Pro already moved to $1,099, and if the 18 Pro rumors are accurate, we could be looking at another big jump.
For me, the bigger issue is value. I’ve bought every iPhone generation, and I’m finally reaching the point where the upgrades just don’t feel worth the price anymore.

 

[CarAnalogy]

Experts are warning that AAPL might go up but it might also go down, crazy times eh?

Impossible, maybe just for 24hours

Happens every single time they do anything, especially iPhones. Stock goes down for a day or so, people see the phone selling, stock goes back up.

 

[vegetassj4]

Today on MacRumor's Lightning Round: Apple is doomed

b-b-b-booya Skeedaddy

**KeyBanc's record compared to other analysts is among the bottom of rankings

 

[GianL]

Very low stocks of iPhone Ultra in the first year(s)?

 

[spazzcat]

This sounds like stock manipulation to me

 

[DennisdeWit]

These EU-prices will go through the roof. Pretty convinced we'll be taking the hardest hits again, just as always. You know, America first!

 

[HQuest]

Then Apple stays in the same price range, reducing the initial profits and making shareholders unhappy, but in doing so it attracts not only those being on the latest and greatest, but customers reluctant to replace older devices, thus selling more devices and increasing profits, making shareholders happy.

Either way, there is no win over greed.

 

[TruthAboveAllElse]

When it goes down immediately after the keynote is exactly the time to buy. (This is not financial advice.)

 

[boswald]

Experts are warning that AAPL might go up but it might also go down, crazy times eh?

Kind of reminds me of Total Recall: "How did I get in here?" "The door opened, you got in. Hell of a day, isn't it?"

 

[davitur]

If these numbers are remotely accurate (possible this close to the event), then we can put similar % increase ranges to the rest of the line up. Adjusting to the closest natural price point (e.g., ending 49/99) we can estimate the new prices to be:

iPhone 18 - $899 (+$100, 12.5%) - Spring 2027
iPhone 18e - $699 (+$100, 16.7%) - Spring 2027
iPhone Air 2 - $1149 (+$150, 15.0%) - Spring 2027
iPhone 18 Pro - $1249 (+$150, 13.6%)
iPhone 18 Pro Max - $1399 (+$200, 16.7%)
iPhone Ultra - $2199 (new)

We will see if Apple surprises us on Wednesday.

EDIT: My thoughts are that they will keep the Apple Update prices the same, pushing any price increases to the payout price at the end of the 24m lease. I'm curious what the lease price ends up being for the Ultra - will they keep it under $40 per month?

 

[MiamiFL]

If the stock drops an appreciable amount, I have money sitting on the sidelines to buy.

 

[Haiku_Oezu]

Correct me if I’m wrong but doesn’t this usually happen? I seem to remember Apple stocks immediately go down after a “disappointing” event only to go right back up when they announce they sold out everything in 5 hours

 

[davitur]

Correct me if I’m wrong but doesn’t this usually happen? I seem to remember Apple stocks immediately go down after a “disappointing” event only to go right back up when they announce they sold out everything in 5 hours

The "gazelle" of Wall Street get spooked quickly. Never know which way they will bound next.

 

[CEmajr]

I fully expect the price to fall immediately after the keynote. Just like it dropped when Apple raised prices a couple months ago. I then expect it to go right back up even higher than before so if anything I'm expecting a buying opportunity.

 

[btrach144]

Consumers are bleeding everywhere right now. At the gas pump, at the store. It’s bad.

Increasing tech prices at a time when budgets don’t already have a lot of room means people will hold onto their current devices for longer and upgrade less.