In the UK, the iPhone was released on 9/11/07 (or 11/9 for US readers). If my maths is correct, then people will be updating to the iPhone 3G when their contracts approach termination (17 months). The earliest being 9/4/09. So a lot of people will fork out £99 for the earliest opportunity to upgrade their handset. Some of them would have forked out within four months of the iPhone 3G release on July 11th, but I'm willing to bet at least half didn't. But if a new model is on the way, shouldn't they wait for that? We know that the new iPhone will probably be released in June or July. At an estimate, probably half of those who upgrade will have wanted the iPhone 2,1 instead of the iPhone 3G. But rumours won't have hotted up enough by then for most people to know about the iPhone 2,1. So this awkwardness in terms of contract expiry seems to be playing right into Apple's pockets. What I wonder is whether Apple will be responsible about this and advertise, or at least publicise in Europe early enough for people to wait a few months and get the latest handset. After all, it may well be more in their interests to keep their customers happy than to get a small number of people to fork out £99 for a 1 year old handset. Anyway, I'm just thinking about this because I broke my iPhone, and am considering whether to wait for the new one or fork out in April.