Outside of lowering capacity (to encourage iCloud use) or either shrinking (or excessively increasing 5"+) the display, I don't see how they could do anything that would make people not want to upgrade.
It's more likely that there won't be enough of a change to make people want to upgrade rather than some sort of downgrade.
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If it looks like iPhone 4, not upgrading. Not spending $200 on a minor upgrade.
So... new processor, more memory, and a new, better camera would only count as a "minor upgrade" to you?
Uhhh yeah, if an iPhone 4 can run iOS 5 perfectly, and that new hardware (by the way, there's no indication of more memory or storage, and we still don't know exact camera specs) is largely wasted, I'd call that a minor upgrade.
I'm concerned that ios5 will be sluggish on ip4. I just have an iPod touch right now and it is super sluggish, choppy with certain apps. Always freezing with Facebook, especially when I wake up in the morning and try to check Facebook.
What in your mind would apple have to change on the iPhone 5 to make you say "no thanks, I'll keep my 4"
Bigger screen or bust.
If Apple comes out with the same 3.5 inch screen then theres a real chance that some monster Android phone could sweep me off my feet...
p.s. absolutely HATE the idea of the teardrop design