bitslap47,
Is my math off, or do you just think the format makes it confusing? How do you estimate how many copies you will sell? I know the 20K was an example, but could you share your methodology?
Your math is good... no problems there... I think it's just the specific example doesn't fit my particular circumstances.
My estimation of 20K in 3 to 6 months is based on average performance of past products. The type of applications I write are usually very niche products.
For example, SiriusWM5 is for users of Windows Mobile devices that are Sirius Satellite Radio subscribers. They have to fit the specific profile of someone that has a WM device, is a Sirius subscriber, cares about satellite radio, and has enough time to bother using the product to listen. I also do not actively advertise, so the uptake is slow.
Within the first 3 to 6 months I hit 20K users. 2+ years later, I am close to 100K users with about 20% needing to read the FAQ or request support (ask questions) of some sort.
The program is free, but had I charged $4.95 I would have made $500K by now.
I spent 3 hours making the first version, and to be honest, just patched and slapped new features into it... I wasn't even convinced it was useful for anyone except me. Don't get me wrong, it is rock solid, and best of all free... but it is not my best work.
Should I have made $500K for about 160 hours of work (coding and support/website maintenance) or $3,125/hour for something like SiriusWM5? I could be insane, but I say no.
Now I am doing it right. It will support Sirius, XM, user defined stream sources, local radio stations, and allow advertisers to TASTEFULLY advertise based on content. IT will best of all work on all mobile and PC devices and operating systems, and will have a plugin usable by game developers for XBox360 and PS3 games.
In this case I feel I SHOULD make more for this product than SiriusWM5, and I feel most of the money earned should come from the advertisers, not the users. If possible the application should be free... but I think 80-90 cents is fair to cover the server costs and costs of courting the advertisers and game studios. The profit will come from the advertisers if I have done a good job in designing the system.
I hope this helps...