I feel pretty confident that we'll see some changes for the iPhone and Flash! I want to be able to see those late breaking local news bulletins with Flash on my iPhone v. the little blue box with the stinkin' Question Mark!!! (My next AVATAR is it doesn't show up!)
Since Adobe made the ill-advised "sure, we can do it" boast as soon as the SDK was announced, there have been no other publicized developments. The SDK/App Store terms specifically forbid development of something like a Flash player (or any other interpreted/compiled language/code) so Flash won't arrive to the iPhone in that way.
I'd describe Apple's interest in getting Flash on iPhone as indistinguishable from zero. Sorry, but I'd basically not hold my breath at all.
Apple is kinda-anti-flash, and flash is very CPU/battery intensive. As well, Apple expressly forbid anything like Flash from running in the SDK (pretty much anything that runs external scripts/code). So I wouldn't hold my breath.
think the iPhone will get flash. I mean look at it already - so many things packed in to that tiny shell already! how could better software be un-apple-like? new 3G iPhone should have a better battery, so it probably wouldn't be that big of a deal anyway
Basically, adding Flash to the iPhone is a risk for Apple with very little reward. Put those 2 things together and you end up with a situation that Apple isn't gonna go for anytime soon.