iPhone rumours are getting more accurate, and early!

Discussion in 'iPhone' started by BMcCoy, Sep 8, 2016.

  1. BMcCoy macrumors 65816

    BMcCoy

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    Jun 24, 2010
    #1
    Just searching back through MR, and looking at the assorted iPhone rumours surfaced, and how they panned out... and it's really interesting. A lot of accuracy this time, even from more than 6 months ago..

    - The loss of the headphone jack was predicted in November 2015!
    - And the 256GB storage sizes stories started in January.
    - Other rumours about the EarPods, AirPods, and not forgetting the dual camera with its big bump.. all came months ago.

    I guess there are lots of reasons for this, and it's likely to continue.
    Does it change how we view early iPhone rumours?
    In the past, a rumour 9 months out would be quickly dismissed.
     
  2. OllyW Moderator

    OllyW

    Staff Member

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    #2
    I suspect that leak was engineered by Apple to gauge the reaction from the public.
     
  3. BMcCoy thread starter macrumors 65816

    BMcCoy

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    #3
    Very possible. Makes sense.
     
  4. LKN macrumors 6502a

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    #4
    Yes the headphone jack was probably leaked by Apple to prepare the world for it!!

    The leaks by that Ming geezer who predicts the stuff before hand has to be someone on the inside. Someone who works on design must be telling him that as i dont believe he predicts such accurate info!
     
  5. BMcCoy thread starter macrumors 65816

    BMcCoy

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    #5
    I think it's been confirmed that he has contacts in numerous supply chain companies, so can extrapolate orders from Apple into final product specs. If he's wrong, it's because he's made assumptions on smaller orders that perhaps are for prototypes, but never make it to final products. He must be the most reliable individual source of rumours. Didn't 9to5 estimate his accuracy at over 70% overall across all rumours and all products?

    But I seem to remember in years gone by a lot of rumours that were shown to be nonsense. The teardrop iPhone5 for example! This seems to happen less now. My hypothesis is that a greater % of rumours now are shown to be accurate.
     
  6. EM2013 macrumors 65816

    EM2013

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    #6
    We knew everything about what was announced except for the pricing of airpods :D

    I'm ready for the iPhone 8 leaks!
     
  7. C DM macrumors Westmere

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    #7
    Realistically a lot of these things start out as just pure speculation and not even really rumors or actual leaks, it's just that some of them end up becoming rumors and then leaks, while others don't really end up going anywhere either at all or just not until some point later when they might become actual rumors and leaks if something like that happens in some future model.
     
  8. Apple fanboy macrumors Core

    Apple fanboy

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    #8
    Recall the rumour of two plus phones? One with one cameras, one with two?
    Remember the magnetic charging cable a la Apple Watch?
    Rumours are rumours. Some will be true, some will not.
     
  9. Feenician macrumors 68040

    Feenician

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    Jun 13, 2016
    #9
    This is definitely possible
    But I think this is on the money. Confirmation bias. A thousand rumours, some stick and some don't. The ones that don't are quickly forgotten and the lasting impression is that the rumours are always right.
     
  10. C DM macrumors Westmere

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    #10
    And the whole "teardrop" design rumor, and even supposed "leaks".
     
  11. BMcCoy thread starter macrumors 65816

    BMcCoy

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    #11
    But that's my question...

    If we remove confirmation bias, are iPhone rumours getting more accurate?

    I'm not saying there haven't been false rumours this year, but if someone objectively reviewed all rumoured specs this year, and previous years, are the rumours getting better?

    (No agenda here.. I'm bring sincere and interested).
     
  12. Feenician macrumors 68040

    Feenician

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    #12
    Yep, I don't think anything you've said betrays an agenda and I'v been up front in my answer. The truth is I think it's an interesting thought experiment but the logistics of gathering and counting all rumours (the survivors and the non-survivors) year over year and assigning a truth level to them is nigh impossible. I would love to read the results of such a study though.

    One thing I forgot to mention earlier is the supply chain. It definitely leaks like a sieve now and has done for years. That definitely improved the accuracy of rumours but honestly its been so bad for so long I think you'd have to go all the way back to iphone 4 or so to see times when leaks came from something other than the supply chain.
     
  13. Apple fanboy macrumors Core

    Apple fanboy

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    #13
    Of course when is a leak not a leak, but part of a clever marketing strategy?
     
  14. Jimmy James macrumors 68040

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    #14
    Apple doubled down on secrecy while everyone else tripled up.
     
  15. FrozenInferno macrumors regular

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    Oct 27, 2013
    #15
    Well, iPhone manufacturing is on such a large scale now that leaks are basically inevitable. Tens of millions of each component, sourced from all over the world, and with a million people employed assembling the things.

    All of this only fueled even further by a rabid press and fan base who are thirsty for Apple rumors. It's basically impossible for Apple to keep any of this stuff secret anymore.
     
  16. Channan macrumors 68030

    Channan

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    #16
    This was an easy prediction that most people probably guessed when the iPad Pro was first available in this size.
     
  17. Apple fanboy macrumors Core

    Apple fanboy

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    #17
    Actually didn't most people predict Apple pencil support as well?
     
  18. joeblow7777 macrumors 601

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    #18
    Not just gauge the reaction, but also give the public time to get used to the idea.
    --- Post Merged, Sep 9, 2016 ---
    I heard some people suggest it, but there never seemed to be any reason to think so. Just one of those shot in the dark rumours.
     
  19. urkel macrumors 68030

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    Nov 3, 2008
    #19
    Its just like with Battery Life of the Apple Watch. People initially expected "3-5 days or this will be stupid". Then "rumors" emerged claiming "Its only 8hrs of battery!" to get people to freak out. So by the time Apple said "18hr battery" then Many peoples brains were rewired to believe that to be impressive.

    With the phone then some of the other stuff was leaks or simply people stating the obvious (you can't go wrong with predicting 32GB for the 5th year in a row). But I do agree that the headphone jack "leak" was intentional info set out there to create the initial hysteria and anger early enough for people to get over it and accept Apple's 'courage'.

    Its really scary to see how easily public opinion can be swayed with media manipulation and fanaticism.
     
  20. mrex macrumors 68020

    mrex

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    europe
    #20
    like smaller bezels or bezelless phone.
     
  21. spooky23 macrumors 6502

    spooky23

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    #21
    I know it's all just rumours (just read this sites iphone 8 page) but have I got this right? The rumour is that next year we'll get 's' versions of the current phones + a premium model? That cant be right (even as a rumour, it doesn't scan). I've obviously mis-read. No one would buy an 's' version if there's a premium.

    Although if Apple do release a brand new phone redesign, then I'll go from always upgrading on an S cycle to buying a first edition of a new phone.

    Yes...It's Friday afternoon, I'm at work, and I'm day dreaming. Deal with it.
     
  22. fxbeta macrumors member

    fxbeta

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    Sep 23, 2014
    #22
    Yes, it does feel that the rumors are more accurate every year. I don't think there was a single surprise this year except for the price of the airpods. I hope the trend continues and next year's model is indeed a complete redesign with better display technology.
     
  23. C DM macrumors Westmere

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    Oct 17, 2011
    #23
    Well, a few things or at least details that weren't really talked about like the upgraded front camera or details of the new CPU (being quad core and all that) or some newer features like Live Photo editing.
     

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