For the 14 that would be the case regardless considering it should come with the latest chip, 8GB RAM with Apple Intelligence and USB-C. The Dynamic Island and ultra wide camera should make the 15 viable enough to keep in the lineup. The SE won't have a Plus model so the 14 and 15 do have that going for them.It may be outdated, but it's the realistic expectation.
If it comes with 128GB and is priced at or below $500, it's in direct competition with iPhone 14. Even if the iPhone 14 gets discontinued upon SE4 launch, the iPhone 15 will face the same competition from SE4 only 6 months later in September 2025.
64GB with a 48 megapixel camera would be a bad combination so I really hope they don't go in that direction.