Baymowe335

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Original poster
Oct 6, 2017
6,640
12,449
First of all, this is my research and is by no means supposed to be taken as fact. It's just what I've found and I thought you guys would be interested since there is a lot of talk about iPhone X demand slowing down from Apple detractors (despite seemingly no evidence to show this). To tackle this thesis, I did my own research.

I have been tracking iPhone X demand daily via istocknow.com and screenshots of their map. For those that don't know, this website tracks retail stock at physical Apple stores mainly and has proven very accurate in my checks.

My Method
For the last 14 days, I have checked the live stock map diligently 2 times per day at 8AM and 9PM.
  • iPhone X has been green (in stock) in almost every city in America at 8:00AM and has been almost or completely red (out of stock) at 9:00PM.
  • New stock is posted every single day out of the 14 days I tracked and has been consistently out of stock at the end of each day.
  • Asia has been out of stock almost instantly (Japan, China, Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia, Singapore)
  • There is been decent stock in United Kingdom, but extremely limited in the rest of Europe and late in the day in the UK.
There are issues with my method:

1. I rely completely on what istocknow.com website is reporting.
2. I have no idea how many are being sold. Green means there could be 1 available or 1,000 available.
3. This is just directional analysis for demand. I.E. if there IS STOCK and then there is NO stock, it shows demand is healthy at least at Apple Stores.
4. My analysis does not incporporate other retailers besides Apple Stores, which only make up a small % of total sales.

Opinion: I do not see iPhone X demand waning AT ALL, even as shipping times improve on Apple.com to 2-3 weeks. This just indicates they are ramping supply.

My primary goal in this was to see what demand for the phones is doing at Apple Stores (which likely is similar at other retailers, but not 100%). The Apple Stores show strong demand, essentially selling their daily stock. This tells me demand for the phone is still very strong as they are basically selling every phone they ship.

I think we are going to see close to $100B in sales in Q1.

Disclosure: I am long AAPL.
 
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Newtons Apple

Suspended
Mar 12, 2014
22,757
15,235
Jacksonville, Florida
First of all, this is my research and is by no means supposed to be taken as fact. It's just what I've found and I thought you guys would be interested since there is a lot of talk about iPhone X demand slowing down from Apple detractors (despite seemingly no evidence to show this). To tackle this thesis, I did my own research.

I have been tracking iPhone X demand daily via istocknow.com and screenshots of their map. For those that don't know, this website tracks retail stock at physical Apple stores mainly and has proven very accurate in my checks.

My Method
For the last 14 days, I have checked the live stock map diligently 2 times per day at 8AM and 9PM.

  • iPhone X has been green (in stock) in almost every city in America at 8:00AM and has been almost or completely red (out of stock) at 9:00PM.
  • New stock is posted every single day out of the 14 days I tracked and has been consistently out of stock at the end of each day.
  • Asia has been out of stock almost instantly (Japan, China, Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia, Singapore)
  • There is been decent stock in United Kingdom, but extremely limited in the rest of Europe and late in the day in the UK.
There are issues with my method:

1. I rely completely on what istocknow.com website is reporting.
2. I have no idea how many are being sold. Green means there could be 1 available or 1,000 available.
3. This is just directional analysis for demand. I.E. if there IS STOCK and then there is NO stock, it shows demand is healthy at least at Apple Stores.
4. My analysis does not incporporate other retailers besides Apple Stores, which only make up a small % of total sales.

Opinion: I do not see iPhone X demand waning AT ALL, even as shipping times improve on Apple.com to 2-3 weeks. This just indicates they are ramping supply.

I think we are going to see close to $100B in sales in Q1.

Disclosure: I am long AAPL.


And my Apple stock just keeps going up and up, over $3 a share just today!:):):):apple::):):)
 

Strelok

macrumors 65816
Jun 6, 2017
1,420
1,639
United States
There is a 64GB Black and Silver iPhone X available at a store ~80 miles from me. Heck, when preordering started there was one available ~50 miles away from me for quite a while (next day even). That said, it's still sold out in most places.
 

UBS28

macrumors 68000
Oct 2, 2012
1,974
1,271
It is not accurate because I can buy an iPhone X from a physical Apple store tomorrow if I want to.
 

Baymowe335

Suspended
Original poster
Oct 6, 2017
6,640
12,449
And my Apple stock just keeps going up and up, over $3 a share just today!:):):):apple::):):)
Perhaps others are realizing that Apple is doing a good job STOCKING the phone while it is consistently selling out of retail daily?

After their last Q report, RIP shorts. The Q they put up without any benefit of the iPhone X and only 2 weeks of iPhone 8 and Watch 3 was simply amazing.
[doublepost=1511290837][/doublepost]
It is not accurate because I can buy an iPhone X from a physical Apple store tomorrow if I want to.
Which store Apple store? I'd like to check it.

Mind you, the data is fed over from Apple.com directly. Unless it is an error in the code, I have not seen many examples of showing out of stock on their website and in stock on Apple.com. If anything, I've seen more cases of in stock on istocknow and already gone at Apple.com retail finder.
 

valinda

macrumors 6502a
May 16, 2015
706
427
Virginia Beach, VA
There are 2 Apple Stores near me. They told me to get an X, I needed to come in as soon as they open. They get some every morning but sell them out soon.
 

Dirtydutch

macrumors 6502a
Sep 19, 2015
680
565
Jerseyyy
Demand is definitely still strong, just about all stores across the board are wiped by mid day the latest...Seems like most people buy on the app for pickup as I have yet to see stock of any just by simply walking in and asking, the answer has always been no when I strolled in.
 

skywalkerr69

macrumors 6502a
Jan 21, 2011
738
401
New York
First of all, this is my research and is by no means supposed to be taken as fact. It's just what I've found and I thought you guys would be interested since there is a lot of talk about iPhone X demand slowing down from Apple detractors (despite seemingly no evidence to show this). To tackle this thesis, I did my own research.

I have been tracking iPhone X demand daily via istocknow.com and screenshots of their map. For those that don't know, this website tracks retail stock at physical Apple stores mainly and has proven very accurate in my checks.

My Method
For the last 14 days, I have checked the live stock map diligently 2 times per day at 8AM and 9PM.
  • iPhone X has been green (in stock) in almost every city in America at 8:00AM and has been almost or completely red (out of stock) at 9:00PM.
  • New stock is posted every single day out of the 14 days I tracked and has been consistently out of stock at the end of each day.
  • Asia has been out of stock almost instantly (Japan, China, Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia, Singapore)
  • There is been decent stock in United Kingdom, but extremely limited in the rest of Europe and late in the day in the UK.
There are issues with my method:

1. I rely completely on what istocknow.com website is reporting.
2. I have no idea how many are being sold. Green means there could be 1 available or 1,000 available.
3. This is just directional analysis for demand. I.E. if there IS STOCK and then there is NO stock, it shows demand is healthy at least at Apple Stores.
4. My analysis does not incporporate other retailers besides Apple Stores, which only make up a small % of total sales.

Opinion: I do not see iPhone X demand waning AT ALL, even as shipping times improve on Apple.com to 2-3 weeks. This just indicates they are ramping supply.

I think we are going to see close to $100B in sales in Q1.

Disclosure: I am long AAPL.

I love this. This reminds me of what Peter Lynch used to do with the Magellan fund.
 
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Vinny19666

macrumors newbie
Nov 20, 2017
8
2
I feel like demand for the X is still really high now but come closer to the holidays demand is gonna be insane. I have faith in Apple they can keep up with it. They have been keeping up with current demand pretty well in my area but for Christmas it’s gonna be crazy.
 

Suspenders

macrumors regular
Oct 28, 2017
124
124
I feel like demand for the X is still really high now but come closer to the holidays demand is gonna be insane. I have faith in Apple they can keep up with it. They have been keeping up with current demand pretty well in my area but for Christmas it’s gonna be crazy.

I completely agree. I think as the holidays approach and people get into the Christmas spirit, it'll be much harder to get an iPhone X.

Up here in the Toronto area, there is new stock every day, and even more on Saturdays. All of the silvers sell out within minutes, but the space grays are generally available.

For example, on Saturday the Silvers sold out within 20-30 minutes, but the space grays were available up until the afternoon. All gone by the end of the day though...

I picked up another 256gb silver yesterday morning for my fiance. I checked back about 15 minutes later and everything was gone.
 

Vinny19666

macrumors newbie
Nov 20, 2017
8
2
I completely agree. I think as the holidays approach and people get into the Christmas spirit, it'll be much harder to get an iPhone X.

Up here in the Toronto area, there is new stock every day, and even more on Saturdays. All of the silvers sell out within minutes, but the space grays are generally available.

For example, on Saturday the Silvers sold out within 20-30 minutes, but the space grays were available up until the afternoon. All gone by the end of the day though...

I picked up another 256gb silver yesterday morning for my fiance. I checked back about 15 minutes later and everything was gone.

Yeah I'm from the Toronto area as well if your lucky some malls will have a very miniscule supply of iphone X's. The stock literally changes by the minute. Im glad I preordered mine its coming today so I can avoid that whole christmas rush.
 

JPack

macrumors 604
Mar 27, 2017
7,339
12,493
There's much better data available at http://www.iphonepricehk.com/iphone-x-and-8-price.

The prices are updated in real-time to reflect the buy and sell prices of iPhone X. Right now, the buy prices are only 2-3% above retail. Hong Kong scalper units supply China and Russia. It's much better data than looking at Apple Store stock.

First week after iPhone X launch, the buy prices were about 10% higher than retail.

upload_2017-11-21_13-13-7.png
 

Baymowe335

Suspended
Original poster
Oct 6, 2017
6,640
12,449
I wish I invested in AAPL :(
Honestly, you're not too late. The stock is still cheap relative to the S&P. They have a $270B cash hoard and trade at 15X F2018 estimates.

MSFT trades at 25X 2018 earnings as reference.

The average S&P500 company is trading around 25X. Do you think AAPL is better than the Avg S&P500 company? Your call.
[doublepost=1511299843][/doublepost]
There's much better data available at http://www.iphonepricehk.com/iphone-x-and-8-price.

The prices are updated in real-time to reflect the buy and sell prices of iPhone X. Right now, the buy prices are only 2-3% above retail. Hong Kong scalper units supply China and Russia. It's much better data than looking at Apple Store stock.

First week after iPhone X launch, the buy prices were about 10% higher than retail.

View attachment 737452
That looks like different data to me, not necessarily better. My analysis tracks availability, which is limited at Apple Retail. At 3:30PM CT, almost all Apple Stores in the US have no stock.

People might not be willing to pay a huge premium over market because there is new stock every day, but people clearly demand the phone at the moment. We'll have to see if Apple is doing a good job with supply when the numbers come out.
[doublepost=1511299915][/doublepost]
When someone says that demand for the iPhone X is declining why does that make you upset?
It's not upsetting. I am doing my own analysis because I am an AAPL shareholder and have an interest in how well they sell.
 

Baymowe335

Suspended
Original poster
Oct 6, 2017
6,640
12,449
It's like clockwork. All red last night at 9pm, back to pretty much green this morning at 8AM.

2.5 hrs in, about half the US is now red.
 

TroyBoy30

macrumors 68020
Jun 9, 2009
2,407
1,128
Atlanta GA
It is not accurate because I can buy an iPhone X from a physical Apple store tomorrow if I want to.

youre lucky. today is the first day ive seen any stock anywhere close to me via apple.com. the closest store with stock is 175 miles away lol
 

S&Cmom

macrumors newbie
Oct 4, 2012
18
3
On VZW website, the 64G silver model is in stock and ready to ship. I can order it now and have it by Friday...still up in the air on it though.
 

Baymowe335

Suspended
Original poster
Oct 6, 2017
6,640
12,449
They are complete out of stock at all Apple Stores I. The US and Canada as of 9:30 PM ET.

Some stock in California that will be gone when they close later tonight.

Doesn’t seem like low demand, at least at Apple retail.
[doublepost=1511836369][/doublepost]
On VZW website, the 64G silver model is in stock and ready to ship. I can order it now and have it by Friday...still up in the air on it though.
Stock is usually available in the mornings, but gone by evening. Att was also completely gone last I checked.
 

conifer

macrumors regular
Oct 30, 2014
152
37
They are right on schedule. In the beginning they manufacture limited stock and then gauge demand so they can give orders to suppliers, maximize efficiencies and solve problems. That then takes about a month or so to get going and that is where we are right now with a 1-2 week wait on the phone. I've seen this before with other tech companies. There was no way Cook was going to miss the holiday period on the flagship product --this is a key thing driving his sales.
This is not some small item like the AirPods, or what have you.
 

JediZenMaster

Suspended
Mar 28, 2010
2,180
654
Seattle
There's much better data available at http://www.iphonepricehk.com/iphone-x-and-8-price.

The prices are updated in real-time to reflect the buy and sell prices of iPhone X. Right now, the buy prices are only 2-3% above retail. Hong Kong scalper units supply China and Russia. It's much better data than looking at Apple Store stock.

First week after iPhone X launch, the buy prices were about 10% higher than retail.

View attachment 737452

At least here in the states the scalpers are going to be screwed. Here in Seattle someone was selling a 256GB X for like 1600 or so.

In two weeks those scalpers will be racing to get that phone sold as store availability will be so much improved why buy from a scalper when I can buy in store?
 
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