iPhone X Responsible for 35% of Total Worldwide Phone Profits in Q4 2017

[inhalexhale1]

I bought an iPhone X 256 GB and I am very pleased with it, as well as it's price.
[doublepost=1523995736][/doublepost]
I'm glad I kept mine.

Same. I use the plus now and then, since I gifted it to family. It’s still a great phone, but the X is so much better. Face ID has a few quirks, but overall I prefer it to Touch ID.

 

[DeepIn2U]

In a couple of words, very impressive!

Most impressive!

Now imagine what could've been accomplished with Siri advancing her skills even by 20% what kind of revenues would Apple have seen?

 

[inhalexhale1]

For while, the newest iPhones started at $650. By newest, I mean the cheapest version of the most recently-released hardware with usually the latest-and-greatest SoC.

In theory, these things should get cheaper over time. The latest iMac and Macbook start much much lower than they did 10 years ago.

But Apple is trying to do the opposite. They're trying to raise ASP. The only reason they can get away with it is because they have spent the last 10 years cultivating this iOS/iTunes/AppStore ecosystem to be as entrenching as possible, they have this pseudo iOS smartphone monopoly.

Most analysts expected the iPhone X to be a "super-cycle" or upgrades, similar to the iPhone 5 and iPhone 6. So far it looks like that did not pan out. Perhaps Apple knew that repeating that super-cycle was impossible, so that is why they decided to price it higher. Only Apple knows for sure, but that is my guess. If you know you won't get the volume anyway, might as well try to jack up the ASP.

I hope most of these iPhone X buyers are kicking themselves this coming October, when they're offered $300 trade-in value or they're selling for $500 on Swappa and ebay. First-gen first-rev Apple hardware tends to lose value the quickest, for good reason usually.

IMHO, if you’re that worried about resale value to pay for a yearly upgrade, maybe you shouldn’t be upgrading every year.

There’s nothing wrong with keeping a phone for a few years. If you absolutely have to buy the newest, you should expect to lose money. The same is true for Apple’s other products as well.

 

[PickUrPoison]

Well it’s certainly better than $1000. Though, I’d be hard pressed to pay more than $900 for a phone unless it was truely remarkable. It can be spun however you want to spin it, but under the given premise, the X is being marked up 28% higher than normal.

Apple isn’t pricing the X based on your price ceiling.

And you’re really going to accuse me of spin in the same sentence you characterize Apple charging $999 instead of $946 as the iPhone X “being marked up 28% higher than normal”?

Hmmm, ok

 

[vipergts2207]

Apple doesn’t price the X based on your price ceiling.

And you’re really going to accuse me of spin in the same sentence you characterize Apple charging $999 instead of $946 as the iPhone X “being marked up 28% higher than normal”?

Hmmm, ok

I never said that they did or should. Just stating my opinion that it is too high. The 28% figure isn’t spin; it’s a number that was calculated. Like my opinion though, you’re free to feel that the amount is a-ok.

 

[deanthedev]

So in that scenario Apple is pulling an extra $56 from consumers for each phone, which is exactly what I'm pointing out. That comes out to more than the cost of a Apple leather case.

Sure other older phones would be included in the ASP, but that figure is for Q4 and how many older models sell in Q4 compared to newly launched models? I don't know that the data for that is out there, but obviously Q4 iPhone sales are going to lean very heavy toward new models. Anyone not buying a brand new model could just as easily by one the other 9 months of the year.

I posted a link earlier saying the 8 outsold the X in 2017. However, which ever one technically sold more doesn't matter because they were likely somewhat close is numbers. The X didn't sell so many more units that Apple makes 83% more profit from the X than the 8. Regardless of how you want to slice volume vs margin, it's a guarantee that some of the extra money Apple made from the X comes from a higher than usual margin for Apple.

Using only the U.S market, actually puts the X at the most favorable possible advantage for this comparison, as the U.S is easily among the top countries with the most disposable income. In fact, according to this link the U.S. is behind only Switzerland, Australia, and Denmark when it comes to disposable income. However, those countries only have a combined population of a little more than 10% of the U.S. population. So you're idea that the global market as opposed to just the U.S. market, will somehow make X numbers look better is extremely misguided. If anything global numbers will only worsen the numbers for the X, as poorer countries' citizens aren't going to be shelling out for a $1000 phone. Of course that's also before the exchange rates are accounted for, which generally causes Apple's products to be even more expensive in those countries.

I already addressed above, older models and Q4 data. Certainly older models bring the ASP down some, but a large portion of people buying in Q4 are there for the new stuff. Here, you can see how Apple's ASP skyrockets during launch quarters and takes big dips in between, evidence that large numbers Q4 customers are there for the newest (most expensive) stuff, not the older, cheaper stuff.

That's an awful lot of assumption.

https://www.counterpointresearch.com/apple-sells-record-22-million-iphones-usa-4q17/

This report claims in the US the iPhone X outsold the 8 and 8 Plus by a 2:1 margin last quarter (or that the X sold as many as the 8 and 8 Plus combined). So how do you reconcile the differences between the article you linked (which used data from CIRP) and this report (from Counterpoint)? Who's telling the truth?

On the one side we have Tim Cook (which you'd have to accuse of lying during an earnings call - a very serious matter) who stated the X was the best selling iPhone every day since launch. Then we have the ASP, which is based on actual numbers (not an estimate or the opinion of an analyst). Then we have Counterpoint which aligns with Tim Cook and Apples numbers and also produce this report about profits.

All of these vs CIRP. I think I know who I'll believe - the ones where the math adds up. The iPhone X has been very successful.

 

[fendersrule]

The thing is, iPhone 8 style models won't be around forever. Apple obviously expects iPhone X style phones to be the future. Unless Apple drops their flagship pricing, I'll be moving to a three year upgrade cycle instead of every two years, resulting in Apple netting less money overall. There's already barely enough compelling changes to upgrade every two-years as it is. I think many others will balk at the prospect of dropping $1000 on a phone every two years as well. Even upgrading at $900 every other year is pushing it for me if Apple insists on the base storage being less than 128 GB of storage.

Man, I've had an iPhone 6 since launch. That's what, nearly 4 years ago? Like I said, the real innovation is with the Apple watch. Please feel free (or anyone else) to challenge me in that the iPhone is still an iPhone. Challenge me with all your might. You take picture with it, you browse the web with it, and you check Facebook with it. Not much has changed, has it? So why upgrade to a new $1000 phone on any damn upgrade cycle unless stuff just doesn't work anymore/isn't fixable? A "better this, more powerful that" means nothing. The experience itself doesn't change. What has changed since the iPhone 6? I've heard mixed things about Face ID; touch ID is actually faster in many reports. I've heard mixed things about the notch. The iPhone X feels like the first Gen iPhone on the sides when held, which I'm not necessarily sure is a "new" or "innovative" thing, but more of a throwback. It feels just about the right size though; the plus iPhones are stupidly too wide. What can I really do with the iPhone 8/8+/X that I can't do with anything else? Waterproof? Well, I don't care about my iPhone as much anymore since I'm an Apple watch user, so that means squat; just keep it 20' away from the pool and all is the same. Inductive charging? Well, OK, but that's the only inductive device that I'll have out of 4 other iOS devices, so that doesn't really mean anything or will change my habits. What is it that's magical about anything above a 6? My point is no upgrade cycle is necessary, I guess.

My iPhone 6 really is just chugging along...

My Apple Watch changed my life, my habits, and still pesters me to exercise. I've lost 26lbs since January 1st and the Apple watch has helped me change my lifestyle. It's not a cause/effect ordeal, but it helped me instantaneously see when I'm being lazy, so it absolutely helped. I look at my watch more than my phone every day. I'll go without my iPhone, but never without my Apple Watch. Beat that, iPhone. THAT is innovation.

All great quality smart phones are $649 and up, I stand corrected. The Apple iPhone X is priced accordingly. It is THE, if not one of, the fastest phones ever built. But it's still a PHONE.

 

[deanthedev]

Better yet, go brag to all your friends how much profit your electric company makes.

Nope. But I will brag about having the best support in the industry with the best ecosystem. Or the fact I have the best aftermarket accessory support of any mobile device. And privacy/security as the icing on the cake. You need to be successful to provide this level of service.

Meanwhile people are happy to pay close to $1,000 for a flagship Samsung phone, and then wait 6 months before they get the next version of Android. Or wait months for security fixes for critical flaws. Or lose support after 2 years. Or put up with an inferior ecosystem and lower quality Apps. Or fewer accessories. Sounds like Samsung is the one overcharging, considering all the things you have to give up.

 

[m0sher]

Oh the trolling in this thread is deep.

It’s a successful phone, let’s face it, despite it being over priced by $100 IMO. Premium price for a premium phone.

No one forced anyone into buying the X. The new UI without home button and OLED display, despite the notch made the phone a success let’s face it.

Android manufacturers imitating apples success is pathetic as their latest releases now have a notch and android P is adding new UI gestures like the X for next gen.

One word to summarize why the X was so popular .... innovation.

 

[vipergts2207]

That's an awful lot of assumption.

https://www.counterpointresearch.com/apple-sells-record-22-million-iphones-usa-4q17/

This report claims in the US the iPhone X outsold the 8 and 8 Plus by a 2:1 margin last quarter (or that the X sold as many as the 8 and 8 Plus combined). So how do you reconcile the differences between the article you linked (which used data from CIRP) and this report (from Counterpoint)? Who's telling the truth?

On the one side we have Tim Cook (which you'd have to accuse of lying during an earnings call - a very serious matter) who stated the X was the best selling iPhone every day since launch. Then we have the ASP, which is based on actual numbers (not an estimate or the opinion of an analyst). Then we have Counterpoint which aligns with Tim Cook and Apples numbers and also produce this report about profits.

All of these vs CIRP. I think I know who I'll believe - the ones where the math adds up. The iPhone X has been very successful.

I think it’s interesting that the link you posted corroborates exactly what I suggested.

“There has been a lot of chatter that the iPhone X has disappointed on a global level which is partly true not only for Q4 2017 but also moving into 2018 as a result of the higher price which ensured the demand remained softer than expected. But this has not been the case in the US market and outlook looks positive for Apple in its home market for 2018. US consumers on an average are probably on their third or fourth iPhone and are willing to pay for the Apple ecosystem which is much stronger and sticky in USA than for example in China.”

Regarding what Tim Cook said on an earnings call, the X could have sold one more unit than the 8 and he’d still be telling the truth. It’s a purely qualitative statement.

And regarding the 2:1 figure, that’s not surprising because it says as of the iPhone X’s launch on November 3rd. The rush of people buying 8’s and 8+’s would’ve been long over by then considering how much earlier they launched. Thus, the figure doesn’t make the point you want it too.

 

[NetMage]

Regarding what Tim Cook said on an earnings call, the X could have sold one more unit than the 8 and he’d still be telling the truth. It’s a purely qualitative statement.

I know understanding is difficult, but that would have to have been one more unit per day every day the X was on sale. Minimum. And the ASP suggests it did better than that.

 

[vipergts2207]

I know understanding is difficult, but that would have to have been one more unit per day every day the X was on sale. Minimum. And the ASP suggests it did better than that.

Was that not implied? And while we’re being pedantic, the actual Tim Cook quote was that it was the best selling phone every week since launch.

 

[ipponrg]

On the one side we have Tim Cook (which you'd have to accuse of lying during an earnings call - a very serious matter) who stated the X was the best selling iPhone every day since launch

You know what's also a serious matter? Trusting what someone says at face value. The earnings calls are basically public PRs. You need to observe the tone, choice of words, verbage, historic actions, etc to interpret what's going on.

How often do you go to an All Hands Meeting at work and trust the information that comes out of it at face value?

 

[PickUrPoison]

I never said that they did or should. Just stating my opinion that it is too high. The 28% figure isn’t spin; it’s a number that was calculated. Like my opinion though, you’re free to feel that the amount is a-ok.

Well the new, improved version of the iPhone X is rumored to be priced 10% lower than this year’s model. Only five months to wait!

One thing is certain: Apple would sell more at $900 than they will have done this year at $1,000.

But a $749 6.1” LCD iPhone 9 Plus will also sell very well, I’m sure.

Maybe the analysts will call for another supercycle, only to be disappointed yet again when it fails to materialize. Another Apple “fail” just on the horizon lol.

Great for stock manipulation—and clicks

 

[kstotlani]

A single analyst dreams up statistics with no backing, essy when you have nothing available for others to challenge them with.

That said, you cannot help but be wowed by this particular analysts credentials, which also manage to be ambiguously meaningless..

But over 200 people comment on it here including insulting each other and spewing hate because they don’t have agreement on how great the phone is makes it a legitimate article. No?

 

[Analog Kid]

Nice, proof of how massively overpriced the X is.

This is proof that the X is correctly priced. If it were overpriced, their profits would fall.

These threads always drive home how many people could benefit from basic micro economics class...

 

[HutNews]

I guess the X isn't the failure that so many wanted it to be.

I love mine... just came back from NAB, most accomplished executives got X

 

[gibi]

well, now we have a clue of how much overhead profit the "X" has

 

[dirtylilhobo]

I just bought an iPhone X I’m afraid to open the box.

 

[HutNews]

Though you do have to pay attention to the metric they are using.

If sales weren't that great, but profits (revenue minus costs) are great, then it just means they managed to charge a massive premium.

footnote: I have X and it is the best phone I have ever had, so I don't mind that I had to give Apple a lot of margin on it.

Same here. I also bought Apple red case and Apple care.

 

[sirwoodland]

Soo... this just means they’re the leaders at slapping consumers with big fat margins on lower supply chain and production costs. Dunno why we’re congratulating that... “congrats on really working our wallets over, Apple”

 

[Ramchi]

This burden(of shouldering Apple's profits) will increase for adopters of iPhone X or its successor to make Apple rich while rest of the world smartly sharing the value through optimal price

 

[sirwoodland]

And its a flop?

Unit-wise and volume-wise, yes, against their forecasts. This is just a calc of units * margin, and a bigger margin puts it ahead of lower priced models.

 

[DeepIn2U]

So that's why every week there is a new article on MacRumors saying that Apple is "cutting production" and "going to discontinue" the iPhone X?

I'm starting to see these sort of "analysts" reports on Macrumors claiming production cuts and likes related to iPhone X or the latest iPhones as a revers pump & dump on the stock.

All days such a rumor is featured on Macrumors, within minutes Bloomberg features Mark Gurman stating the same claim as he's some sort of tech guru (yet most the news he's reported related to Apple in the last 12months is 90% sourced here first; 4hr minimal delay)! I'm not joking you can qualify this with past articles, threads of first posts and then cross reference with Bloomberg.

So my theory is:
report of product X dropping production, sales not as high as expected, no lineups, etc
stock drops, minimally or significantly (yet well enough for orders of 1000+ to amount up to significant)
someone buys the stock at a much cheaper pricing,
3 days later or a report/article such as this thread pops up - stock rises.

on such anlystics or reports of said company mentioned in the downplay of any new or in cycle iphone NEVER shows the long term history of analytical reporting done by said company or even long term focus or research on Apple. Which really has me smelling the "punks jump up to get beat down" song running in my head about such.

I'm no Android fan, and I rarely frequent the more popular Android forums: XDA Forums, XperiaForums, Droid-Life, AndroidCentral, etc ... but I don't see a reflexive correlation happening on the competition for their in cycle products getting this. makes me kind of wonder so I figure let's play this game out.

That surprised me a bit too, since the 8 Plus likely also has a higher profit margin than the 8, in addition to be priced higher.

After thinking about it, it might be that the X is cannibalizing the 8 Plus to the point that the smaller 8 is outselling the Plus, despite early reports that the Plus was the better selling of the two.

Also, the higher capacity 256GB model is much more profitable than the 64; it could very well be that the 64/256GB split favors the 8. Those that would usually buy the 256GB 8 Plus, for $949 may have been driven to the X.

Last sentence sums it all up. Retail price of the 8 Plus is far too close to the X, so it's a 50/50 decision: wait/save/to-buy/buy the X, or it's too costly in near term and get the 8. Feature wise the 8 has a lot going for it when non-owners of the 7 series consider the upgrade from older models or new to iPhone.

 

[mi7chy]

Tell me again how important market share is.