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iPhone XR Accounted for an Estimated 32% of U.S. iPhone Sales in November
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If these percentage numbers of android->iphone switchers are correct and iPhone total yearly sales are flat, that means there are an equal number of iphone->android switchers each year.
Wait, wasn't there just a rumor last week that said the XR was a flop?
I know there was because I predicted then a rumor similar to this one.
I realize this is a rumors site, but this is getting old and silly.
I know there was because I predicted then a rumor similar to this one.
I realize this is a rumors site, but this is getting old and silly.
I want many things too.
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The XR might be the best-selling, but it is possible that Apple is selling fewer units overall. That's it.
XR sales represent 48% of 2018 iPhone models. It beat the iPhone X during the same period last year.
Not sure what else people were expecting. The model is clearly a hit in Apple’s huge lineup. Not to mention Apple continues to manufacture and sell ancient models like iPhone SE, 6, and iPhone 6s through carriers.
Not sure what else people were expecting. The model is clearly a hit in Apple’s huge lineup. Not to mention Apple continues to manufacture and sell ancient models like iPhone SE, 6, and iPhone 6s through carriers.
In November most of estimates said iPhone XR is a failure.
It only gives percentages, not raw numbers
Clearly something is not right with their projections if they're promoting trade ins to stir sales (something they've never done) as well as numerous analysts lowering their previous projections by tens of millions of phones
These phones are still selling more than entire android lineups have sold, but it should be encouraging news for those who are hoping apple will change their current practice of pushing high premiums
I would have been loyal but the PWM of the OLED displays makes the phone unusable for me. Unbelievable that Apple would use tech that causes headaches
While it is true that you can draw very valid conclusions of a population on a very small sample size, that only holds true if your sample is truly random. That means that every member of the population has an equal chance of being selected in the sample.
How can you do this with smartphone sales? The article says it sampled Apple customers. OK, does that mean Apple customers who purchased an iPhone from an Apple retail store? Did they include people who may have purchased their phone online and had it shipped to their home? What about people who purchased through a carrier or another reseller? What about people in countries other than the United States?
I would be hesitant to draw any conclusions from this sample without better understanding the selection methodology.
The sample size of this survey is 165 people and it's USA-only. Given the size of the smartphone market, it's hardly what I call meaningful. The most accurate I've seen in terms of iPhone adoption trends is this one by Mixpanel
https://mixpanel.com/trends/#report/iphone_Xs
https://mixpanel.com/trends/#report/iphone_Xs
165 people for a survey! Some people don’t even try anymore. Let me know when it’s a few thousand.
Well if they sell too many of them it will bring down the ASP from the previous volumes of XS $1000 sales last year , and that won’t be good for the share price since they aren’t telling us how many phones sold now either.
We also know that overall volumes have been pretty much flat year on year or slightly lower.
I would personally never get an XR - it’s huge , heavy, and a little fugly compared to the XS. But it is cheaper which is a strong selling point.... because the XS I have was a total rip off !!
Unless their pricing strategy changes this will either be my last iPhone or the one I keep the longest sadly.
We also know that overall volumes have been pretty much flat year on year or slightly lower.
I would personally never get an XR - it’s huge , heavy, and a little fugly compared to the XS. But it is cheaper which is a strong selling point.... because the XS I have was a total rip off !!
Unless their pricing strategy changes this will either be my last iPhone or the one I keep the longest sadly.
According to another study*, 0% of iPhone 7 owners upgraded to a newer model in 2018. So that study is clearly wrong.
*Study based on a sample of 4 owners of iPhone 7 I know of, including me.
Well I brought the Max in November and I couldn't be happier. After having small phones for years I can't see myself going back to the smaller screens. My mum needs help at times with her iPhone 8 and I swear I question myself when I use her phone "How did I manage with this screen size for a long time?" (I had an iPhone 6 and 7 before I upgraded to the Max)
I’m not sure I’d call the XR overpriced. It’s roughly the size of the 8, with a screen closer to that of the 8 Plus. Granted, it’s missing the second rear camera, but it’s $50 cheaper than the 64Gb 8 Plus, and it’s still faster and all that. If I had to get a new iPhone today, it would probably be the XR. The problem, I think, is that we just don’t need to upgrade as often. My 6S still gets it done.
I'm one of those Android switchers that the XR grabbed. And I am quite happy with my decision. I love my XR.
Take this for what it's worth. Every year, CIRP releases their results from their surveys. The analysts, pundits, tech reporters and rumor lovers (that's most folks on MR) will twist the results into whatever argument they want. Some will point to the small sample size. Others will point to the USA only. Whatever.
What does stay consistent is CIRP's methodology. I won't comment on their accuracy, but they use the same methodology from month to month and year to year.
So if you used their data for an argument in previous years, you shouldn't discount the data this time, at least from the same MR account. Use a burner account.
Anyways, we should all take a look at this report thinking "who paid for this report?". I can guarantee you that CIRP doesn't do this research for free. Someone is paying them for their services. I'd go on to surmise that the folks who pay for this research actually get the "real" report. We're only seeing what CIRP (and their customer) wants us to see.
Here's a fun thought exercise. If this data is accurate, what would this mean for Apple's Q1-2019 results?
1. Xr is selling better than the recent reports would suggest.
2. Compared to last year, the latest iPhones are selling at a similar percentage (2017 8/8+/X vs 2018 Xr/Xs/Max). 69% vs 67%
3. Max is selling better than the Xs.
4. No SE in the current lineup.
I take all of this in and my conclusion to this thought exercise is that the ASP will be ridiculous for the current quarter. Q1-2018 the ASP was $796. Last quarter (Q4-2018) the ASP was $793. Looking at the CIRP chart, that kind of a mix would indicate something in the range $900 or so.
Of course, Apple won't report unit sales, but they will report iPhone revenue. Let's say they get unit sales around what they've done the last 4 years. That's 75M units. At $900 a pop, that would be $67B. They did $61.5B last Christmas quarter.
Back to the point of my post. The amateur investors on this board (and countless other boards on the internet) have to scrap and hunt for data like this. The pros (Hedge Fund Managers and guys like that) buy data and analysis. They actually pay for it, so they get the real stuff (or at least the real stuff a few weeks early). I wouldn't be surprised if CIRP had a second report that includes estimated unit sales and perhaps worldwide information.
Anyways, Apple has certainly put the fun back into the Pre-Quarterly Earnings Report guessing game. Ever since they put the high-low earnings estimates, it's been boring. I liked it better when they put one estimate number and the game was to determine if AAPL would be the estimate by 15% or 35%.
Now, the analysts will actually have to do work if they want accurate estimates for their analyst reports. Of course, accurate estimates were never part of what they provided anyway, but we can all still hope.
I think we can all agree that mid-Feb will be an interesting time for AAPL and Wall Street in whole.
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When you upgrade, of course they would prefer that you buy the top-line, spec'd out iPhone (this year it's the 512 Xs Max), but if you upgrade to the mid-tier or previous years' flagship, that would make them happy too.
As long as you don't go Android, Apple will make money.
That's why Apple is actively making an effort to keep older iPhones usable. This is the new Apple strategy.
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The deals offered by the carriers were generally BOGO offers, provided you opened a new line or transferred in from another carrier. The $700 that the carrier gives you is a great deal. Apple has to compete against that, but they aren't going to give you a BOGO offer straight up.
So what Apple is doing to compete against these offers is to give you an additional $100 or so on a trade in. Apple's trade in pricing was pretty bad to begin with and the extra $$ brings it in line with Swappa and Ebay and stuff. They are advertising the price with the trade in (iPhone 7) to bring you in. It really isn't that great of a deal, IMO, but the low price tag brings in shoppers. Once they have you, they can upsell you AppleCare, iCloud, etc. Plus, they get your old iPhone, which they can resell for more than they gave you for it in the first place.
I really don't think these promotions have anything to do with Apple meeting sales projections or not. They're just trying to sell phones and services.
What does stay consistent is CIRP's methodology. I won't comment on their accuracy, but they use the same methodology from month to month and year to year.
So if you used their data for an argument in previous years, you shouldn't discount the data this time, at least from the same MR account. Use a burner account.
Anyways, we should all take a look at this report thinking "who paid for this report?". I can guarantee you that CIRP doesn't do this research for free. Someone is paying them for their services. I'd go on to surmise that the folks who pay for this research actually get the "real" report. We're only seeing what CIRP (and their customer) wants us to see.
Here's a fun thought exercise. If this data is accurate, what would this mean for Apple's Q1-2019 results?
1. Xr is selling better than the recent reports would suggest.
2. Compared to last year, the latest iPhones are selling at a similar percentage (2017 8/8+/X vs 2018 Xr/Xs/Max). 69% vs 67%
3. Max is selling better than the Xs.
4. No SE in the current lineup.
I take all of this in and my conclusion to this thought exercise is that the ASP will be ridiculous for the current quarter. Q1-2018 the ASP was $796. Last quarter (Q4-2018) the ASP was $793. Looking at the CIRP chart, that kind of a mix would indicate something in the range $900 or so.
Of course, Apple won't report unit sales, but they will report iPhone revenue. Let's say they get unit sales around what they've done the last 4 years. That's 75M units. At $900 a pop, that would be $67B. They did $61.5B last Christmas quarter.
Back to the point of my post. The amateur investors on this board (and countless other boards on the internet) have to scrap and hunt for data like this. The pros (Hedge Fund Managers and guys like that) buy data and analysis. They actually pay for it, so they get the real stuff (or at least the real stuff a few weeks early). I wouldn't be surprised if CIRP had a second report that includes estimated unit sales and perhaps worldwide information.
Anyways, Apple has certainly put the fun back into the Pre-Quarterly Earnings Report guessing game. Ever since they put the high-low earnings estimates, it's been boring. I liked it better when they put one estimate number and the game was to determine if AAPL would be the estimate by 15% or 35%.
Now, the analysts will actually have to do work if they want accurate estimates for their analyst reports. Of course, accurate estimates were never part of what they provided anyway, but we can all still hope.
I think we can all agree that mid-Feb will be an interesting time for AAPL and Wall Street in whole.
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You'll probably be ready for an upgrade next year, then. As long as you stick with an iPhone, AAPL wins. They get to attempt to sell you Services and apps.
When you upgrade, of course they would prefer that you buy the top-line, spec'd out iPhone (this year it's the 512 Xs Max), but if you upgrade to the mid-tier or previous years' flagship, that would make them happy too.
As long as you don't go Android, Apple will make money.
That's why Apple is actively making an effort to keep older iPhones usable. This is the new Apple strategy.
[doublepost=1545866886][/doublepost]
Apple promotions are indeed new this year, and quite aggressive. However, at least in the US, the carriers are being more aggressive than in past years. Apple does not compete in a vacuum. They are not competing just against Android vendors. They are also competing against the carriers. The carriers don't really compete against Apple, they more or less, compete against the other carriers.
The deals offered by the carriers were generally BOGO offers, provided you opened a new line or transferred in from another carrier. The $700 that the carrier gives you is a great deal. Apple has to compete against that, but they aren't going to give you a BOGO offer straight up.
So what Apple is doing to compete against these offers is to give you an additional $100 or so on a trade in. Apple's trade in pricing was pretty bad to begin with and the extra $$ brings it in line with Swappa and Ebay and stuff. They are advertising the price with the trade in (iPhone 7) to bring you in. It really isn't that great of a deal, IMO, but the low price tag brings in shoppers. Once they have you, they can upsell you AppleCare, iCloud, etc. Plus, they get your old iPhone, which they can resell for more than they gave you for it in the first place.
I really don't think these promotions have anything to do with Apple meeting sales projections or not. They're just trying to sell phones and services.
Spec’ed up won’t happen here. I’m still using a 16GB iPhone! But yes, I do subscribe to iCloud, and the household has an array of Apple products. We do attempt to make them last, though.
You say this:
Then proceed to be the object of your own criticism:
Might have been better to just start of with your own armchair analysis instead of pointing fingers.
"I’m not sure I’d call the XR overpriced." => It isn't
"but it’s $50 cheaper than the 64Gb 8 Plus" => At $749 USD MSRP, it's actually $50 more than the 64GB 8 Plus
I agree. And when you look at the comparison of the XR to the XS, the XR is a better value, and it shares a lot of the same features as the XS, aside from the telephoto lens, OLED panel and stainless bands, everything else is primarily the same. Consumers want to see the cheaper price point of $250 under the XS, the XR looks so similar to the XS, it offers a very similar experience and the battery life has been receiving outstanding reviews.
Long term, the XR will do very well and it should, as I think Apple wants this phone to be the real contender against the competition.
It’s a hit by default. The XS and max is just priced out of many people’s budgets. The iPhone 8 and 7 are old designs that look dated. So if you want edge-to-edge style you only choice is the XR.
Those of you commenting on the sample size need to read up on statistics.
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I would like a McLaren 570S for the price of a Ford Mustang. McLaren has gotten so greedy.
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But that’s exactly what the people alleging inaccuracy because of the small sample size are doing. While you are correct, it is more likely that a firm that is in the business of conducting polls knows what they are doing and created a representative sample.
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Or maybe it shows that for some people the XR fits their needs and budget irrespective of a subjective opinion of pricing “reasonableness.”