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They got to lower per song prices to $0.89. Doing so, you'd probably see a two-fold increase in song purchases. But this seems highly unlikely.
 
Lacero said:
iTunes needs now to diversify and go after old, rare and live recordings. They need to expand to 5 million tracks available within the next 2 years if they want to compete in a much more competitive marketplace. That would seem to be the natural evolution of iTMS.

Although my goal for iTMS would be to offer every single song available that ever existed.

Eh, they've got a pretty extensive catalog, and while it needs to keep growing at the rate it is, it doesn't need to do more than that. Most of what they don't have wouldn't sell that many copies, anyway.

What I think they really need to do is become a better way to browse and discover music. They sell it perfectly, but other people can compete there pretty easily. If, though, they have really smart software that keeps track of everything you buy, everything you look at and don't buy, how long you look, etc. and do some good statistical analysis of this, they could become not a service for buying music, but for finding and suggesting music. Plus links with radio stations, online reviews, etc. and the fact that by being the market leader, they have so much more data available to them, and hence can give better recomendations....

That's how itms could really, really rock.
 
Republishing press releases

This is not news. It's an arbitrary number, and has little real news benefit. It's a press release. An article that looks at this stated number in relation to other music services, or how iTMS profits are becoming a larger part of Apple's profits would be different.

I come to MR to get the news that I can't get from the "Hot News" page on the apple site.
 
BlueDjinn said:
This one doesn't include the "new country" dates, but does include the "average per day" numbers for each time period:

itms_sales.gif


I got all of the numbers from Apple press releases except for the 13 million and 230 million figures, which were announced by Jobs at the iTMS for Windows launch and this years' MWSF keynote respectively.

Note that there actually has been a slight dip in the rate since January, but it's actually the other way around--the first few weeks of January had a brief *spike* while thousands of gift certificates were traded in, new iPod recipients went nuts with their new toys, and so forth.

At the current rate, they should hit 375 million by the 2-yr. anniversary (April 28, 2005) and around 700 million by years' end...but they could indeed break 1 billion if the rate keeps ramping up...

crap, I guess I misread the graph before this. ignore that post. I thought the number of songs sold per day had increased, but the rate of that increase had slowed down. But a net drop in number of songs sold per day? I'm not liking this.
 
dontmatter said:
Yeah, the rate of downloading is still increasing, but the rate of growth seems to be slipping pretty bad. And, not to be the pessimist, but the rate of growth is really what's important when you're in a market with as much growth potential as this one.

I was disappointed by the announcement.

The time to sell 50 million songs dropped from 39 to 37 days over the previous 50 million. That's less than 3 million more songs in a 37 day period.

Normally I might call that marginal growth, but in the same press release they tout the popularity of the exclusive “Across the Universe” song.

One exclusive song for tsunami relief may have accounted for all the growth. Without this one song, the growth may have been flat or down.

This is troubling give the number of iPods, Shuffles sold just prior.

--Sebastian
 
VIIGemina said:
I was disappointed by the announcement.

The time to sell 50 million songs dropped from 39 to 37 days over the previous 50 million. That's less than 3 million more songs in a 37 day period.

Normally I might call that marginal growth, but in the same press release they tout the popularity of the exclusive “Across the Universe” song.

One exclusive song for tsunami relief may have accounted for all the growth. Without this one song, the growth may have been flat or down.

This is troubling give the number of iPods, Shuffles sold just prior.

--Sebastian

The previous period included Christmas. Show me a store that INCREASES its sales in the month after Christmas and I'll show you an incredible success story.
 
dontmatter said:
crap, I guess I misread the graph before this. ignore that post. I thought the number of songs sold per day had increased, but the rate of that increase had slowed down. But a net drop in number of songs sold per day? I'm not liking this.

Consider sesonality into all sales numbers like this. The drop is likely an aberation partly, if not wholy, caused by a spike resulting from fallout from the holiday buying season in the states, etc. If you graph the run rates you see the that holiday seson is really a spike in comparison to the run rates for other periods of time.
 
dontmatter said:
Eh, they've got a pretty extensive catalog, and while it needs to keep growing at the rate it is, it doesn't need to do more than that. Most of what they don't have wouldn't sell that many copies, anyway.

What I think they really need to do is become a better way to browse and discover music. They sell it perfectly, but other people can compete there pretty easily. If, though, they have really smart software that keeps track of everything you buy, everything you look at and don't buy, how long you look, etc. and do some good statistical analysis of this, they could become not a service for buying music, but for finding and suggesting music. Plus links with radio stations, online reviews, etc. and the fact that by being the market leader, they have so much more data available to them, and hence can give better recomendations....

That's how itms could really, really rock.

Let's hope that what they saved the version number 5.0 for iTunes for.
 
wordmunger said:
The previous period included Christmas. Show me a store that INCREASES its sales in the month after Christmas and I'll show you an incredible success story.

I would expect Christmas to have an impact on iPod sales. I'm not sure that iTunes sales are so seasonal. Were people buying iTunes for Christmas?

I would expect the iPod sales to drive iTunes sales. So are we saying that all the new Christmas iPod owners were done buying music by Jan 24th?

--Sebastian
 
From a semilog plot, it looks to me like Apple's right on track for 1B this year:
itunes.jpg
 

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Trowaman said:
good chart azdude, BUT, you have some errors. UK, France, and Germany was in may or june and Pan-euro store was in October. nice chart though.

You're right. When I added the new point and changed the X scale, the lines didn't move. Oh well... I'm too lazy to fix it.
 
lalcan said:
There are some 500 millions in Latin America, most of us have less than 40 years, and most of us LOVE music

Yeah. The only problem, unfortunately, is that most of them rather download music illegaly than to spend money if there was a ITMS Latin America... :(

Daschund
 
wordmunger said:
I think it's impressive that the rate of sales has climbed, even though we're now past the Christmas season.

I think it might have to do with the first-time iPod owners -- got them as Christmas gifts. They're probably checking out the iTMS and buying a few tunes for the very first time. Plus, I know some people who also received iTunes gift certificates along with their new iPods, so they're pretty much forced to buy something at the iTMS.

And let's not forget about the iTunes/Pepsi promotion going on now. I know I'm buying more soda as a result of it.
 
Just wondering what effect the iTunes capable Motorola phone may have on this growth rate?

Let's see here,
add Japan
add South America
add iPods at all price ranges
add Motorola iTunes capable cell phones

Me personally, I think music sales @ Apple should continue their upward spiral for a time yet.
 
rjwill246 said:
What's with that? On a story this positive

Good for Apple. I, too, love my iPod, iTunes and iTMS.

However, I voted against the story appearing on MR. It's been a long-standing issue of whether a negative vote is against the story content or the story's appropriateness for the site. I subscribe to the latter. s.n.goat
 
Yvan256 said:
At the current rate (1.35 million a day) plus the number of days left in the year (~300 days) I'd bet more around 405 millions more songs, for a total of around 905 millions.

/vicmacs throws Yvan a calculator... hrrmmmm.... are you using napster by any chance?

do the math :p

:eek:
 
sw1tcher said:
And let's not forget about the iTunes/Pepsi promotion going on now. I know I'm buying more soda as a result of it.

Yeah i never drank pop but now since this promotion ive drank 15 in a month that is a ton for me. Also i am 15 for 15 thanks to the helpfull tilt trick. :p do the free downloads count when they calculate how many songs were sold?
 
samiam said:
From a semilog plot, it looks to me like Apple's right on track for 1B this year:
itunes.jpg
Wow. Impressive chart! I kinda had a hunch they'd do it this year. We'll see if things keep going this well for Apple. Of course, it's not possible to maintain this sort of sales growth forever, so the question is, when does the pattern start to break?
 
nicee

JGowan said:
I agree. But those that want to sell "BY ALBUM ONLY" are able to do that. I've seen it quite a few times. Apple will set it up however they want. The bands just need to get with the program. I can't see why Paul McCartney hasn't jumped all over this. Can you imagine how big a deal (literally) that Jobs would make for an opportunity to have a Beatles iPod with exclusive use of their songs (including some never-released stuff that you just KNOW they have!) It would be awesome! It would blow the U2 promotion away!

I'd get a beatles ipod... with ALL their songs for free of course...
 
I've only bought 2 songs from the iTMS. I don't have them anymore, and have no desire to re-acquire them, nor do I plan on purchasing/downloading any more songs from the iTMS...since, quite frankly (IMO, of course), there's too much filler junk to sort through to make a purchase worthwhile. This is a problem with the music industry, not the iTMS - the iTMS's continued success might just convince the music industry to change their ways. Guess what happens after that - an even more successful iTMS!
 
louden said:
Am I alone, or are there others who want a losseless format before they're willing to pay for a download?
It depends on how much it costs, and what the benefits are. On the Canadian iTMS I can purchase an album at home in my PJs for much cheaper than I can buy a CD from a brick-and-mortar store that I would have to travel to (on public transit, through the snow). That difference is valuable to me. So is the ability to purchase single tracks, which saves me money. So is the ability to purchase music that simply isn't available locally.

Also, I spend most of my time listening to music in transit, or in my office. I don't listen to it on an audiophile system, and so the reduced sound quality just isn't noticeable.

Sure, I would like lossless downloads. I would also like mahogany furniture rather than IKEA, and a Hummer rather than taking the subway. But the trade-offs involved simply aren't worth the expense to me. The same is true for music downloads -- to me, lossless formats aren't worth the costs (both in time and convenience). I don't see any point in being dogmatic about lossy vs. lossless -- it's all just a matter of cost/benefit analysis.

What happens if home audio changes in the next few years, and the lossy formats used by iTunes today turn to shrill?.
I don't follow this, given that it is iTunes itself (or the iPod) which is doing all of the heavy lifting -- the sound system essentially just amplifies the input.

dontmatter said:
Eh, they've got a pretty extensive catalog, and while it needs to keep growing at the rate it is, it doesn't need to do more than that. Most of what they don't have wouldn't sell that many copies, anyway.
Given that it is a digital store, without the overhead of brick-and-mortar, they don't have to sell many copies to make a ton of money of back-catalog. Wired had an excellent article on this, called The Long Tail, that demonstrated that even obscure items can be purchased often enough to make them highly profitable, especially given that the marginal cost of additional catalog items is pretty close to zero. Also, more popular items can actually drive the sales of less well-known items (through recommendation systems). So it makes quite a lot of sense for iTMS to add as much material as it can, even if some of it may not be purchased all that often.
 
VIIGemina said:
I would expect Christmas to have an impact on iPod sales. I'm not sure that iTunes sales are so seasonal. Were people buying iTunes for Christmas?

I would expect the iPod sales to drive iTunes sales. So are we saying that all the new Christmas iPod owners were done buying music by Jan 24th?

--Sebastian

I got a few iTunes gift cards for Christmas, I definitely had a downloading spree in the days that follow that I don't normally do
 
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