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I actually would assume this would happen. As oppose to all other retail during the shopping season, Im not surprised to see revenue go down for intangible property because its not something you can really give to someone. And after someone has spent all their extra money on gifts for others, they have little left over for music for themselves. Seems logical...
 
overrated hooey

This is the register.. I get their RSS feed and it seems to me that it is a pretty sensational article.. They knew they would get lots of mention for it.. I have seen it posted on digg and /.

All I know is that my wife just spend $85 on Christmas Music and I have bought about 135 items in the past three months.. Apple is still selling a ton of iPods, and that is where Apple is making the money. I think the music store is doing better than breaking even. If Apple is still making more money year over year and beating the streets revenue expectations.. I don't see the problem.

Looking at http://tools.thestreet.com/tsc/quotes.html?symb=AAPL&pg=analyst

They dont see any problems... Nothing like an Apple story to drive page views though.
 
Possibly the market is getting more educated. At first they bought iTumes downloads, now they find (1) they don't like 128kbps quality and (2) they figured out how to rip their CDs. or (3) they've figured out how to use the other on-line services that charge les than Apple.

I doubt most people understand the relationship between bitrate and sound quality. But people have had time to have a run in with DRM. Having to de-authorize songs when you sell your old machine is easy enough...but who remembers. Heck half the time I zero out my drive and THEN remember. Too late. Maybe it's a little more work to go to the store and buy a CD, but it's a lot easier in the end.

Meanwhile, it looks like iPod sales are still increasing. Apple makes very little money from iTMS. I think this is more a message to the RIAA, MPAA, etc than Apple.
 
Numbers LIE!!

Seconded - there's no way 65% of iTunes purchases are being made via gift cards.

Would you give your kids access to your credit card info or an unlimited account at the iTunes store, I hope not. Gift cards from the local Apple Specialist is how I gift friends and family (No tracability there). The Nielson Soundscan chart I saw only looks as if there there was a 15% decline in music sales in 3rd Qtr 2006 from the January Qtr 2006 high.
 
Well, there is nothing interesting to buy. I have bought many songs that I can't find anything good ... either past or new.

So the record industry is not looking good now at least for me.

zzzz
 
If Apple is only making pennies on this anyway, who cares? It's not like people aren't buying music anymore. It is still being purchased, ripped and played on an mp3 player. For as long as the iPod is the player of choice, Apple should be sufficiently pleased.
Exactly. People sometimes forget that the iTMS exists to sell iPods. It may create some revenue in the process, but it is not a major source of revenue for Apple - the iPod is.

I bet all music consumption is down. IMO, there hasn't been anything worth buying in a long time. Frankley i beleive the quality of the current music is not worth my money now
Which is actually part of the reason the iTMS has been such a success so far. Music quality has been down for about 10 years, with only to three to five tracks on the average album really being all that outstanding, so buying singles and skipping the whole album makes good financial sense.

JFC, MacRumors and Appleinsider have been wearing out the question mark key in their latest headlines.

iTunes Store Seeing Revenue Crunch?
Aqua To See Leopard Refresh?
iPhone not at Macworld Expo San Francisco 2007?
Public Beta of Adobe Creative Suite 3?
Three New iPod Models in 2007?
16GB Flash-based iPod Video Player?

Please find alternative ways to write a headline.
This is actually considered poor journalism, too. Take an inflammatory/unproven statement, then add a question mark at the end and it becomes an interrogative rather than a statement. The premise is you're now posing it as a question, but it still reads like a suggestion and FUD.

But then, when the entire publication is based on rumors, its kinda hard to always make truthful statements in headlines.

I only use paypal and I buy quiet a bit.
So are you saying you don't buy much (so you have a lot of quiet in your life), or you're a fan of those tracks on the store that are recorded silence? I couldn't let that typo go. :D

HA! That's like saying the Patriot Act isn't an issue if you're not doing anything wrong.
No, it's a suggestion that DRM is not an issue with things like Hymn, downloading the music illegally, burning and re-ripping, ect

"DRM is not an issue if you're buying music legally." is a sentence that fits your comparison.

Analysis from another person shows more sense:
http://biz.yahoo.com/seekingalpha/061212/22282_id.html?.v=1

Again - declining growth is not EXACTLY the same as declining sales.

Nice dip in the share price though. I just bought some!
Declining growth might as well mean declining sales in todays business world. And I think that's a real issue. If you're not constantly growing you're doing something wrong is the attitude taken by Wall Street today, the result is the list of "successful" companies only includes the top three in an industry now.

Remember when a business was considered a success simply by making a modest profit? What happened to that. World domination isn't the end-all/be-all.

emusic sells MP3 format, bitrate higher but not necessarily better quality, esp when there are some 168kps VBR on emusic.
No DMR is the advantage of emusic.
I'm an emusic subscriber and I have to say that generally the music is higher quality. Most tracks are 180-220 VBR. yeah, there are the occasional stick in the mud group that will only put out 128kbps, but I've only had that happen a couple times, and emusic marks albums encoded this way.

I also suspect that iTunes "colors" some tracks audio-wise. I have a single I got from iTunes that sounds "better" than a 192kbs MP3 version I downloaded online. Now I can't verify what encoder settings that user had when he ripped the album, but there was significantly sharper treble and deeper bass in the iTunes version.
 
does this include Debit card purchases? cause I have my iTunes setup with my debit card

...and I have mine set up through PayPal, which goes through my bank account...

I switched from using my credit card to PayPal to consolidate my bill paying. But I don't think 65% of Apple's users did.
 
It's not surprising that online music sales in general will eventually taper off.

Think about the natural progression of the first time MP3 player buyer.. they run out and the first thing they do is load it up full of all the music they want.

Once it's loaded up, then the only time you bother buying music is when something in particular interests you.. which certainly isn't something that happens every day, or even once a week.

So now since most of the people interested in having an MP3 player has one, and most of them are finally getting all their old favorites loaded into their players, they won't be buying as much.
 
wow, I just read this, I find it quite surprising, if not shocking.

I just can't make sense of the figure: is it that in general music sales have dropped so dramatically or is it that people are buying elsewhere ?

Any comments ?

THE REPORT IS DELIBERATE DISINFORMATION

http://www.blackfriarsinc.com/blog/2006/12/do-math-itunes-sales-arent-collapsing.html

PLEASE START THE WAVE OF ARTICLES EXPOSING THIS LAME ATTEMPT TO DISCREDIT THE iTUNES STORE !!!! SPREAD THE WORD !
 
Forrester looked at transactions by this panel from April 2004 to June 2006. During this time there were 2,791 iTunes purchases by the 7,000 consumers on their panel.

[…] During that 12 month period, only 181 of those households made an iTunes purchase.

Right away you should realize this isn't a very deep population sample. Apple has sold more than 1.5 billion songs on iTunes and this study only looks at a total of 2,791 of those transactions, spread out over two years.

Everything that Forrester says in this research about iTunes is drawn from this sample. The big headline is that the number of transactions, per household in their panel, went from about 17 in January 2006 to about 7 in June 2006, while the average amount of dollars spent on each transaction went from about $7 to about $5.50. This amounts to a 65% drop in monthly revenue during that period.

[…] Forrester themselves cautioned heavily against people drawing larger conclusions.

Thank you very much for this information.

It puts the whole story into perspective.
 
My daughter's 1st ipod was replaced once, fixed a second time now DOA. Her second is now DOA. She's an adult who takes good care of things. She has stopped paying for itune songs. She refuses to buy another ipod. I rarely download songs to burn audio discs. I think the honeymoon is winding down as is the novelty.

My household has 7 iPods and never has had a failure. Your daughter has had three failures.

hmmm..... Tell her to stop driving nails with it, it's not a hammer :)

It's plainly obvious it's something she's doing to the device.
 
Don't be too worried -- even though Fergie, Christina, Paris, etc. aren't "musicians" per se, they have excellent producers behind their backs.

Music nowadays is all about hiring 40-50 year old music professionals, and slapping a cute face on top. It kind of bastardizes the whole concept, but these producers are really really good musicians.

I met Christina Aguilera's producer and he's produced Quincy Jones and listens to all sorts of music -- jazz, techno, etc.

These people understand the concept of pop music through and through, and make cookie-cutter, catchy songs (that go through the bastard record companies, but still...)

And anyway, I agree with the people who say they first downloaded a lot of music to digitize their collection, and now they're pretty much through with it all, and might purchase around 5 albums a year. Frankly I've never bought on iTunes -- I usually buy CD's off amazon.

And don't forget Linda Perry is also Christina's producer (and helped out James Blunt)
 
The sample looks too small to be conclusive but personally I have never brought off itunes. Why would you though? You by an inferior quality compressed recording, with no hard copy and it will be gone if your computer dies. Sorry not a fan of itunes but I love the ipod.
 
ok, and according to Apple, things actually look pretty good for the ITMS.

It looks like it was mere misinformation spread by Forrester Research Inc. This is a name to remember. May be they were short Apple shares ??

It just did not make much sense, as I believe most of us said around here.
 
Sub-CD quality, DRM music. This is why I don't buy from the iTunes store.

They should offer flac, or apple lossless at that same current prices. THEN it would be a good deal.
 
Sub-CD quality, DRM music. This is why I don't buy from the iTunes store.

They should offer flac, or apple lossless at that same current prices. THEN it would be a good deal.

I agree with you in principle. However I wonder how many people have hi-fi systems that can really resolve differences in quality between the various formats above what the ITMS offers.

On DRM it is a real huge pain in the behind; I still don't really understand it (and now with my 4th mac in the house I might have to). I however just don't know what else can be done in the attempt to defeat piracy.

Anyhow, for my critical music I also buy CDs only, and for all the remaining stuff I find the practicality of the ITMS store hard to beat.
 
Who loses?

Nobody loses on this actually.

• Apple is selling iPods like never before (the new shuffle will prove to be a bigger hit than the first one and the 80GB iPod will be even bigger). We've heard time and time again that Apple doesn't make money on the store so it's no big deal.

• Content providers don't care (too much) as the store has always been just a very small suppliment to their overall sales.

• Customers aren't losing. The store is there any time they want, with new content coming in every day.
 
Slower sales... why?

My biggest thought about the slower sales is the fact that people are repeat buyers of the iPod and know how the store works and aren't in as big a hurry to add content as they were intially. I have purchased about 400 tracks/video files since the store's introduction. Most were within the first year. I love Apple. I love the store. I've decided that, if the music is really good, I want the CD. I'd rather buy a Used "Very Good" CD from Amazon than download a whole album at a mere 128kbps. For quick song or two to please the wife or to have on my iPod, I still use the store.

Does this mean that Apple is losing money on me? No.

Personally, in 5 years, I have owned 6 iPods. I have bought iPods for my wife (5G & 2G Shuffle), father (3G), sister (3G & 5G) and best friend (2G). Apple is getting business as I'm certainly shelling out the money for my loved ones but not spending it on the store. I'm sure there are more like me.

It's funny that another big story on the horizon is the possible BEATLES introduction on iTunes. Why wouldn't the Register share that info as a possible "silver lining" to the current revenue cloud?

My guess is spin. Sex and Bad news are the E.F. Hutton of media.
 
Here's an interesting comment posted on the original analyst's blog (bold added by me):

Remy Fiorentino from Forrester here, I helped Josh with the analysis for this report.

TIMK - The 65% decline in revenue was between January 2006 and June 2006. This decline is statistically significant, but is still based on a sample of 181 iTunes buyers. When we compare this to 2005 data, we see that revenues declined 39% from January 2005 to June 2005. Is 2006 worse than 2005? It's hard to say. However, the January 2005 revenue was a bit higher than the January 2006 revenue, and the June 2005 revenue was more than twice the June 2006 revenue. Our data suggests that the iTunes growth has slowed, though neither Josh nor I would say sales have "collapsed".

181 iTunes buyers? They don't make a roll-eyes smiley big enough...
 
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