John Dvorak: Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone
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eRondeau
macrumors 65816
Jurassic Jerk...
Dvorak is a DOS dinosaur who should have quietly retired when Windows 1.0 was introduced. Nothing he says has any relevance to anybody who uses technology anymore. Getting computer advice from Dvorak is like taking driving lessons from Mr. Magoo -- neither one of them can see what's really going on around them, but they're both too damn stubborn to admit it. Dvorak's only current claim to fame is that he occasionally soils Leo Laporte's otherwise fine podcast "This Week in Tech". I wouldn't be surprised if he still uses a rotary phone and types his drivel on a prehistoric Underwood. He has written and said a lot of inane things over the years but I've chalked most of them up to dementia. However to state that a million!!! advance inquiries about the iPhone suggests that Apple is doomed -- well, that's sets a whole new standard for lunatic ranting. Mr. Dvorak, if you're reading this (or more likely if your granddaughter is reading it aloud to you, because this is after all one of those newfangled internet thingies) here's what you need to do. Pick-up your very favourite telephone and carefully dial "0". Ask the friendly operator to put you through to the nearest Sunny Acres Retirement Lodge, then speak to the nice nurse and ask her to please get your bed ready. It is time for you to go.
Dvorak is a DOS dinosaur who should have quietly retired when Windows 1.0 was introduced. Nothing he says has any relevance to anybody who uses technology anymore. Getting computer advice from Dvorak is like taking driving lessons from Mr. Magoo -- neither one of them can see what's really going on around them, but they're both too damn stubborn to admit it. Dvorak's only current claim to fame is that he occasionally soils Leo Laporte's otherwise fine podcast "This Week in Tech". I wouldn't be surprised if he still uses a rotary phone and types his drivel on a prehistoric Underwood. He has written and said a lot of inane things over the years but I've chalked most of them up to dementia. However to state that a million!!! advance inquiries about the iPhone suggests that Apple is doomed -- well, that's sets a whole new standard for lunatic ranting. Mr. Dvorak, if you're reading this (or more likely if your granddaughter is reading it aloud to you, because this is after all one of those newfangled internet thingies) here's what you need to do. Pick-up your very favourite telephone and carefully dial "0". Ask the friendly operator to put you through to the nearest Sunny Acres Retirement Lodge, then speak to the nice nurse and ask her to please get your bed ready. It is time for you to go.
vi2867
macrumors 6502a
Dvorak just likes to stir up attention. He'll say things that other people have thought of, but won't say it.
He once told Leo that Apple should move to Intel chips about six months before Apple actually announced it. Leo told him he was crazy, and that would be the end of Apple if they did this.
Dvorak is basically saying that Apple is going into a market that is very mainstream and they won't have the success they had when they launched the iPod.
He once told Leo that Apple should move to Intel chips about six months before Apple actually announced it. Leo told him he was crazy, and that would be the end of Apple if they did this.
Dvorak is basically saying that Apple is going into a market that is very mainstream and they won't have the success they had when they launched the iPod.
IJ Reilly
macrumors P6
Dvorak just likes to stir up attention. He'll say things that other people have thought of, but won't say it.
He once told Leo that Apple should move to Intel chips about six months before Apple actually announced it. Leo told him he was crazy, and that would be the end of Apple if they did this.
Dvorak is basically saying that Apple is going into a market that is very mainstream and they won't have the success they had when they launched the iPod.
Apple didn't have great success when they launched the iPod. It took several years before it became the phenomenon that we know it as today. That's not to say that the iPhone will be just as big, only that nobody can accurately predict.
FrankBlack
macrumors 6502
He's still Alive??? Just when I think John Dvorak won't be down for breakfast, there he is.
freediverdude
macrumors 6502a
On the contrary, I think this handset market sounds just like the mp3 player market when the ipod was introduced. Just like then, there are products already out there from major manufacturers, and just like then, all those products are crappy and hard to use. This is exactly Apple's strong suit, taking a market like that where nobody is making a real wonderful product and coming out with THE product. In my opinion, it really doesn't matter that it's competitive and new versions come out every 3 months, because the fact that the products are crappy and hard to use is exactly the reason they have to come out with constant revisions. The cool factor rubs off quickly on a product that looks cool but doesn't perform well. If what we've heard comes true, this may be rectified by the iphone.
Strange that this clown still spouts..
This guy has been at it since the 80s, and always was a joke. His drugs must be good and health-saving..Anyhow CAPS
It's the loyalists who keep promoting this device as if it is going to be anything other than another phone in a crowded market. And it's exactly the crowded-market aspect of this that analysts seem to be ignoring. DIFFEREENT BUSINESS MODEL- FREEDOM FROM 3 YR CONTRACTS, DEVICE THAT WORKS WITHOUT LIMITS (CONSTRAINED WIRELESS SHARES ETC.)
Apple Inc.'s past successes have been in markets that were emerging or moribund. Its biggest hit has been the iPod. But let's examine what happened here. UGH, APPLE WON BEFORE MS WITH APPLE II, DEFINITION WINNING SUBJECT TO DEBATE (HAPPY USERS VERSUS PISSED OFF SLAVES TO CRASHES)
First the MP3 player business was segmented and unfocused with numerous players making a lot of cheap junk and not doing much to market any of it.
LIKE MS- JUNK. APPLE- INSPIRING WHAT A GOOD PRODUCT, SYSTEM, MARKETING, CAN DELIVER TO CUSTOMERS. RELIABILTY, INDUSTRIAL DESIGN, ERGONOMICS, PRODUCTION ENGINEERING.
Apple does what? Advertise. Gosh, what a concept. MAYBE 10% OR LESS OF MS. CLEVER AS WELL RATHER THAN LAME. START IT UP TO CLOSE=MS.
Then there was the online music distribution business, again unfocused and out-of-control with little marketing and a lot of incompatible technologies. So Apple comes in with a reasonable solution, links it to the heavily promoted iPod and bingo. A winner. IT HAS BEEN ANALYSED EXTENSIVELY BY THE GREAT AND OTHERS (INCLUDING OTHERS LIKE HARVARD BUSINESS SCHOOL)- LAWYERS ARE CRAP AT INNOVATION OR NEW BUSINESS MODELS, APPLE TAUGHT MUSIC COS HOW TO MAKE MONEY WITHOUT ILLEGAL ASPECTS OR BEING DUMB.
It advertises on TV, on billboards and on the Internet. Within no time the company takes over the business that would probably still be languishing without Apple.
Thus Apple does what it does best. It produces a jazzy product and promotes it like any good business should do. And in the process manages to get a high margin. IN THE US, CRAP PRODUCTS SUCEED DUE TO PROPOGANDA TRAINING SINCE 1911, REST OF WORLD NEEDS MORE. APPLE STUFF SUCCEEDS DESPITE BEING US, BECAUSE IT IS SO GOOD (LAST 6 YEARS, ALSO PRIOR).
This is nothing more than the fundamentals. DO NOT BELIEVE WRITER IS CREDIBLE IN THIS AREA, AS SO VAGUE- LIKE GWBUSH.
Now compare that effort and overlay the mobile handset business. This is not an emerging business. In fact it's gone so far that it's in the process of consolidation with probably two players dominating everything, Nokia Corp. and Motorola Inc. AND DILBERT CONFUSE-OPOLY. BOTTOM LINE, MY UK CELL SERVICE BEAT NORTH AMERICAN BY 300%= CHEAPER, BETTER, RELIBALE, CONTRACTS. ALL US CELL USERS ARE BEING PILLAGED BY PROVIDERS- A CRIME.
During this phase of a market margins are incredibly thin so that the small fry cannot compete without losing a lot of money. SEE GEOFFREY MOOE, CROSSING THE CHASM TEXT, BOWLING ALLEY STRATEGY.. VERY VERY MAIN STREAM YET THIS WRITER IS IGNORANT.
As for advertising and expensive marketing this is nothing like Apple has ever stepped into. It's a buzz saw waiting to chop up newbies. WRONG.
The problem here is that while Apple can play the fashion game as well as any company, there is no evidence that it can play it fast enough. These phones go in and out of style so fast that unless Apple has half a dozen variants in the pipeline, its phone, even if immediately successful, will be passé within 3 months. WRONG.
There is no likelihood that Apple can be successful in a business this competitive. Even in the business where it is a clear pioneer, the personal computer, it had to compete with Microsoft and can only sustain a 5% market share. LIKE THE BMW OR MERCEDES VERSUS THE.... US THING.
And its survival in the computer business relies on good margins. Those margins cannot exist in the mobile handset business for more than 15 minutes.
And note that the Microsoft Corp. versus Apple battles are laughable compared to the frenzied marketing mania in the handset business. Even Microsoft itself has troubles with its attempts to get into a small sub segment of the handset business with its operating system.
LOTUS FLIPPED TO INFERIOR MS; IBM FLIPPED TO INFERIOR MS; APPLE FLIPPED TO INFERIOR MS; MS FLIPPED TO INFERIOR SONY; ETC
What Apple risks here is its reputation as a hot company that can do no wrong. If it's smart it will call the iPhone a "reference design" and pass it to some suckers to build with someone else's marketing budget. Then it can wash its hands of any marketplace failures. THIS IS NOT FIRST GENERATION APPLE PHONE
It should do that immediately before it's too late. Samsung Electronics Ltd. might be a candidate. Otherwise I'd advise you to cover your eyes. You're not going to like what you'll see. DIFFERENT BUSINESS MODELS
This guy has been at it since the 80s, and always was a joke. His drugs must be good and health-saving..Anyhow CAPS
It's the loyalists who keep promoting this device as if it is going to be anything other than another phone in a crowded market. And it's exactly the crowded-market aspect of this that analysts seem to be ignoring. DIFFEREENT BUSINESS MODEL- FREEDOM FROM 3 YR CONTRACTS, DEVICE THAT WORKS WITHOUT LIMITS (CONSTRAINED WIRELESS SHARES ETC.)
Apple Inc.'s past successes have been in markets that were emerging or moribund. Its biggest hit has been the iPod. But let's examine what happened here. UGH, APPLE WON BEFORE MS WITH APPLE II, DEFINITION WINNING SUBJECT TO DEBATE (HAPPY USERS VERSUS PISSED OFF SLAVES TO CRASHES)
First the MP3 player business was segmented and unfocused with numerous players making a lot of cheap junk and not doing much to market any of it.
LIKE MS- JUNK. APPLE- INSPIRING WHAT A GOOD PRODUCT, SYSTEM, MARKETING, CAN DELIVER TO CUSTOMERS. RELIABILTY, INDUSTRIAL DESIGN, ERGONOMICS, PRODUCTION ENGINEERING.
Apple does what? Advertise. Gosh, what a concept. MAYBE 10% OR LESS OF MS. CLEVER AS WELL RATHER THAN LAME. START IT UP TO CLOSE=MS.
Then there was the online music distribution business, again unfocused and out-of-control with little marketing and a lot of incompatible technologies. So Apple comes in with a reasonable solution, links it to the heavily promoted iPod and bingo. A winner. IT HAS BEEN ANALYSED EXTENSIVELY BY THE GREAT AND OTHERS (INCLUDING OTHERS LIKE HARVARD BUSINESS SCHOOL)- LAWYERS ARE CRAP AT INNOVATION OR NEW BUSINESS MODELS, APPLE TAUGHT MUSIC COS HOW TO MAKE MONEY WITHOUT ILLEGAL ASPECTS OR BEING DUMB.
It advertises on TV, on billboards and on the Internet. Within no time the company takes over the business that would probably still be languishing without Apple.
Thus Apple does what it does best. It produces a jazzy product and promotes it like any good business should do. And in the process manages to get a high margin. IN THE US, CRAP PRODUCTS SUCEED DUE TO PROPOGANDA TRAINING SINCE 1911, REST OF WORLD NEEDS MORE. APPLE STUFF SUCCEEDS DESPITE BEING US, BECAUSE IT IS SO GOOD (LAST 6 YEARS, ALSO PRIOR).
This is nothing more than the fundamentals. DO NOT BELIEVE WRITER IS CREDIBLE IN THIS AREA, AS SO VAGUE- LIKE GWBUSH.
Now compare that effort and overlay the mobile handset business. This is not an emerging business. In fact it's gone so far that it's in the process of consolidation with probably two players dominating everything, Nokia Corp. and Motorola Inc. AND DILBERT CONFUSE-OPOLY. BOTTOM LINE, MY UK CELL SERVICE BEAT NORTH AMERICAN BY 300%= CHEAPER, BETTER, RELIBALE, CONTRACTS. ALL US CELL USERS ARE BEING PILLAGED BY PROVIDERS- A CRIME.
During this phase of a market margins are incredibly thin so that the small fry cannot compete without losing a lot of money. SEE GEOFFREY MOOE, CROSSING THE CHASM TEXT, BOWLING ALLEY STRATEGY.. VERY VERY MAIN STREAM YET THIS WRITER IS IGNORANT.
As for advertising and expensive marketing this is nothing like Apple has ever stepped into. It's a buzz saw waiting to chop up newbies. WRONG.
The problem here is that while Apple can play the fashion game as well as any company, there is no evidence that it can play it fast enough. These phones go in and out of style so fast that unless Apple has half a dozen variants in the pipeline, its phone, even if immediately successful, will be passé within 3 months. WRONG.
There is no likelihood that Apple can be successful in a business this competitive. Even in the business where it is a clear pioneer, the personal computer, it had to compete with Microsoft and can only sustain a 5% market share. LIKE THE BMW OR MERCEDES VERSUS THE.... US THING.
And its survival in the computer business relies on good margins. Those margins cannot exist in the mobile handset business for more than 15 minutes.
And note that the Microsoft Corp. versus Apple battles are laughable compared to the frenzied marketing mania in the handset business. Even Microsoft itself has troubles with its attempts to get into a small sub segment of the handset business with its operating system.
LOTUS FLIPPED TO INFERIOR MS; IBM FLIPPED TO INFERIOR MS; APPLE FLIPPED TO INFERIOR MS; MS FLIPPED TO INFERIOR SONY; ETC
What Apple risks here is its reputation as a hot company that can do no wrong. If it's smart it will call the iPhone a "reference design" and pass it to some suckers to build with someone else's marketing budget. Then it can wash its hands of any marketplace failures. THIS IS NOT FIRST GENERATION APPLE PHONE
It should do that immediately before it's too late. Samsung Electronics Ltd. might be a candidate. Otherwise I'd advise you to cover your eyes. You're not going to like what you'll see. DIFFERENT BUSINESS MODELS
MacNut
macrumors Core
Since when are cell phones hard to use, and if a person has trouble with a normal phone how many more bells and whistles will the iPhone confuse the average consumer with. I want a phone to do 2 things, make a call and receive a call. I don't want much more out of a cell phone. If a person cant understand how a cell phone works maybe they should not be buying one in the first place.
IJ Reilly
macrumors P6
Yuck. I mean, seriously -- this was the exact complaint waged against the Macintosh when it came out.
IJ Reilly
macrumors P6
That's a different point entirely. I don't suppose Apple is marketing the iPhone to you. They aren't marketing it to me, either -- which doesn't mean that I don't get what they are attempting to accomplish.
The UIs on cell phones, as a whole, suck. If a great many people can't use a phone beyond its basic functions, it's not evidence that they should not be using a cell phone. It's evidence that the phone's functions are poorly implemented.
The phone I've owned for the past couple of years has scads of functions that I don't bother using, not because I'm technology challenged, but because they're just too obscurely implemented to be convenient. I feel pretty much the same way about my phone as I did about MS-DOS, back in the day. Sure, you can make it work -- but why does it need to be so freaking difficult? Turned out, it didn't need to be.
suneohair
macrumors 68020
I think they are trying to market to everyone. Even those who just want it for calls.
The idea is, people don't want the other features because maybe they seem too hard or advanced or you have no use for them. But by making them easy to use and apply them to your life meaningfully, they think you may want to buy their product.
I would compare it to the Wii, Nintendo wants everyone to want one because they are showing how much fun gaming can be and how it can apply to everyones life.
The idea is, people don't want the other features because maybe they seem too hard or advanced or you have no use for them. But by making them easy to use and apply them to your life meaningfully, they think you may want to buy their product.
I would compare it to the Wii, Nintendo wants everyone to want one because they are showing how much fun gaming can be and how it can apply to everyones life.
zap2
macrumors 604
I really doubt that...they might want the Cell Phone to become a center for everyone, but if people don't want that, they aren't marketing it to them.
Lord Blackadder
macrumors P6
...And Apple has proven itself very successful at developing good UIs. I think that the iPhone project is ambitious, but I don't see the doom and gloom John "The FUDmeister" Dvorak is wailing about.
IJ Reilly
macrumors P6
Not at $500 at the entry level, they aren't. The vast majority of cell phone buyers are used to getting their phones for little or nothing.
johnee
macrumors 6502a
in 2 years, apple will have a "nano" type phone that many people will be able to afford.
anyway, i despise all those phones that do more than make calls. The only thing I really want is SIMPLE voice activated dialing, like pushing a button and saying a name.
johnee
macrumors 6502a
agreed
IJ Reilly
macrumors P6
Maybe, but I wouldn't count on it. A lot will depend on how the iPhone is received and the extent to which Apple can reduce the cost of the technology to the point where the comparison is appropriate.
thewhitehart
macrumors 65816
I think Dvorak is ignoring the fact that Apple just makes revolutionary products - If the ipod were a crappy product, Apple wouldn't of been able to dominate the mp3 player market. iPod kicks ass. And the iPhone is revolutionary - there is no other phone out there on the market like it.
Using the argument that Apple can't get a foothold in a competitive market, and only a struggling one, is nonsense.
The iPod is creating a domino effect in the market for Apple. It is not getting people to buy macs, but if it fits in the palm of your hand, and it's made by Apple, it is going to be a huge success.
I wonder why Dvorak didn't mention Cingular at all? It's not as if Apple is starting its own GSM network...
EDIT: ..."fits in the palm of your hand" *We can't count the Newton, because iPod hadn't been invented yet.
Using the argument that Apple can't get a foothold in a competitive market, and only a struggling one, is nonsense.
The iPod is creating a domino effect in the market for Apple. It is not getting people to buy macs, but if it fits in the palm of your hand, and it's made by Apple, it is going to be a huge success.
I wonder why Dvorak didn't mention Cingular at all? It's not as if Apple is starting its own GSM network...
EDIT: ..."fits in the palm of your hand" *We can't count the Newton, because iPod hadn't been invented yet.
Coming Spring 2009 The
Codec, it's not just for FOXHOUND members anymore.Mwahaha, that's what I want.
Lord Blackadder
macrumors P6
I know. F him.
He's been doing it for decades, literally, and I don't think his attitude is any more likely to change than other public blowhards like Paul Thurrot.
solvs
macrumors 603
Um, then don't buy one. They don't really expect to be selling to you. Not yet anyway. For those of us who do more, this will be a great product if it works as well as the demo I saw. I was planning on waiting to buy, but it would be perfect with my new job. Thanks to which, I can actually afford it.
Didn't Jobs specifically say they don't expect to sell that many the first year?
Oh, and Dvorak is the worst kind of yellow journalist, but he brings in money, so he still gets paid.