John Gruber's thoughts on Verizon iPhone

Discussion in 'iPhone' started by tac22, May 12, 2010.

  1. tac22 macrumors 6502

    Jun 16, 2009
    Personaly i find his info even when he is just speculating to be around the lines of what i believe. He was also the one who recently said the new iphone would have the double resoulution, apple A4 chips, and front facing camera befor the leak.

    Apple-Verizon Political Calculus, 2010 Edition

    Wednesday, 12 May 2010

    Regarding Verizon’s announcement of a supposed forthcoming Android iPad-alike tablet, MG Siegler wrote:

    The big question is: will it get ugly enough that Apple will re-up with AT&T and forget about a Verizon iPhone? Or maybe they have already, which is why McAdam would make such a pro-Google statement? The next few weeks leading up to Apple’s WWDC event in June should be interesting.

    There’s a lot to unpack here. First, I’ll state up front that I know very little, one way or the other, regarding whether the iPhone is coming to Verizon this year.

    The very little I know is that Apple has a skunkworks CDMA iPhone project. I don’t think it’s anything new — I think they’ve always had a skunkworks CDMA iPhone project, very much like the skunkworks Intel version of Mac OS X they kept alive during the PowerPC era. It’s just obvious common sense: be prepared.

    So, technically, yes, Apple could offer a CDMA iPhone HD (or whatever they’re going to call the next-generation iPhone — I’m truly just guessing that it’ll be called “HD”) this year. If they do — if — I don’t think it’d be ready alongside the GSM iPhone HD for AT&T this June or July; I’d guess that it’d be announced in September at the annual iPod event. (If Apple has a CDMA iPhone HD ready to unveil in June, they’ve kept it under far, far tighter wraps than any previous new iPhone.)

    As for whether Verizon’s vaporous pre-announcement of an Android tablet might squelch such a deal with Apple, count me in with Dan Frommer — if anything, Verizon’s early talk of such a tablet makes more sense as a negotiating tactic regarding the iPhone and iPad. Frommer writes:

    Think about it. There is ZERO reason for Google and Verizon to pre-announce a tablet collaboration, likely several months before anything is available for purchase. There is only downside from something like that — delays, other disappointments, etc. (Who’s going to make it, anyway? HTC? JooJoo?) Look what happened to Microsoft when everyone found out its “Courier” tablet was just a design mockup.

    Meanwhile, there is EVERY reason for Verizon to make it look like it’s doing something threatening to Apple.

    Strategically, the Apple-Verizon relationship is fascinating.

    Verizon wants the iPhone. It’s a popular and profitable phone; iPhone users pay high monthly service fees. AT&T’s current iPhone exclusivity is its biggest, maybe even only, advantage against Verizon. AT&T’s plans aren’t cheaper, and their service quality is infamously worse. If Verizon had the iPhone, surely many current AT&T customers would switch. And, some number of existing Verizon customers who would have switched to AT&T just to get the iPhone would instead stay with Verizon. Simply put, a Verizon iPhone would be terrible for AT&T. That’s reason enough for Verizon to want it.

    Apple wants Verizon. They have a better network, especially in major markets like New York and San Francisco. Yes, with CDMA, there’s a technical limitation where you can’t use 3G data while you’re on a voice call, and Apple and AT&T have run ads pointing this out. That’s unfortunate, but I don’t see it as a big deal. I can’t recall ever hearing anyone with a Verizon smartphone complaining about this; contrast that with the zillions of complaints from iPhone users about AT&T’s network quality. More importantly, Verizon has the most customers. The simple truth is that many people, when shopping for a new phone, choose a model from their current service provider. There are some number of people who would buy an iPhone on Verizon who will not ever buy one on AT&T — and that “some number” is, I think, very high.

    Really, we’re right back where we were a year ago with Apple-Verizon rumors. I could pretty much just re-run today this piece I wrote a year ago. (I’d change my prediction that we’ll see a Verizon iPhone “before the end of 2010” to “before the end of 2011”, though. But I still think it’s a question of when, not if, the iPhone will be available through Verizon.)

    One difference today from a year ago, though, is that Android has blossomed into a popular platform — and in the U.S., that’s largely attributable to Verizon. You can see why Verizon wants Android phones — and now tablets — whichever way it goes with Apple. If Verizon is not soon getting the iPhone, they want a good rival. If they are (or even just may) be getting the iPhone, they want to be in the best possible negotiating position.

    AT&T is in a weak position — they need the iPhone to remain theirs exclusively. Verizon and Apple are both in strong positions — they might want each other, but neither yet needs the other. That’s what makes this so interesting.

    But imagine a hypothetical world where there was no Android, or where Android was utterly unsuccessful in the market. In that world, Apple would be in a much stronger position against Verizon — in that world, Verizon would need the iPhone.

    Lastly, even if Verizon already had the iPhone, they’d still want a strong Android platform. A strong Apple does Verizon no good, regardless if they’re carrying the iPhone. Verizon’s interests are best served in a market where there are many phone makers — Apple, RIM, HTC, Motorola, Samsung, HP — none of which are in a dominant position.
  2. Geckotek macrumors G3


    Jul 22, 2008
    BINGO! Except for the statement about Verizon being in a strong position, everything he said mirrors exactly what I've been saying in this forum all along. :D
  3. maflynn Moderator


    Staff Member

    May 3, 2009
    Verizon is in a strong position. They have some very good phones and good network that can handle more then what att can do.

    ATT needs apple and they're bending over backwards for apple because they know that.
  4. rossihvac macrumors regular


    Jun 22, 2009
    Im willing to bet my first born that the same thing would happen to Verizon's network. The ONLY thing they have going for them is android....thats it. The rest of their phones suck.....period
  5. jesterscourt macrumors regular


    Mar 4, 2009
    This whole rumor thing is stupid. It's a case of WHEN not IF. Clearly ATT is not going to hold on to exclusivity forever. And no one knows when Verizon (or any other US carrier) will carry the phone until we get an official announcement.
  6. Geckotek macrumors G3


    Jul 22, 2008
  7. labman macrumors 604


    Jun 9, 2009
    Mich near Detroit
    I read this!

    when I read this post all I can think of is

  8. Applejuiced macrumors Westmere


    Apr 16, 2008
    At the iPhone hacks section.
    Well said.

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