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Joshua Topolsky on the iPhone 4S/5
- Thread starter mikethebigo
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I'm interested to see how Topolsky will react when the 4S is released and there is no redesign. He was adamant that his tear-drop source was 100% reliable this last Spring, even after the same source was incorrect about the iPad 2's retina display and a SD card slot.
He blamed a last minute "engineering issue" for why his source was wrong. I hope he can just admit his source was wrong this time.
He blamed a last minute "engineering issue" for why his source was wrong. I hope he can just admit his source was wrong this time.
What was innovative about the 3GS? At least the 4S will have a dual core and twice the ram, the 3GS got a compass lol
The 3GS was the first smartphone on the planet with a Cortex A8 processor, and had a revolutionary PowerVR graphics chip as well. It took almost a half a year for developers to even write apps that were powerful enough to make use of the new hardware.
That upgrade was truly revolutionary. It was extra power that actually made more things possible.
The switch to the A5 is similar. Ridiculous graphics, and twice as fast (not just due to dual core, but also the architecture of the processor itself - a Cortex A9 variant). But this time, Apple's not the first to do it. Tegra 2 has been out since like February on phones. Apple needs to push the envelope here. I don't want them catching up on other things, like screen size, one year from now.
At what point does marketshare in smartphones stop being a useful metric? There is currently a process taking place where smartphones are replacing feature phones and to a certain extent cannibalizing traditional personal computer markets. How do you measure whether someone buys an iPhone or an Android phone and merely makes phone calls on it and sends and receives SMS or actually does a more diverse number of tasks on it? This is important to determine the general usefulness of a particular class of devices.
At what point does Apple cease caring about marketshare vis-a-vis Android? It's entirely an asymmetrical sort of relationship. One manufacturer with one OS with one or two phones versus an amorphous OS that is used by any number of OEMs manufacturing a diverse array of handsets.
It's only relevant should Android surpass the iPhone all of the following metrics: in hardware technology, software technology, user experience, customer service, and general ecosystem. While there may be those zealots on both sides who think one is far superior to the other, in reality, for the foreseeable future it is very much a mixed bag - iPhone does not necessarily lose if Android wins.
Finally, the amount of schadenfreude concerning Apple truly is second to none. Android has zero traction outside of the phone market, which is where iOS truly shines and while any number of people is taking delight in the downfall of iPhone due to no new form factor, there is a general willingness to declare Android the winner while this is a very consequential year for Android as well. What will happen to the relationship with other OEMs once the Motorola deal is done? What will the added price to an Oracle victory over Google be?
I imagine on Tuesday there will be a number of people claiming the final downfall of the iPhone and that should the general pattern of sales between iPhone generations continue, not one of them will admit they were wrong. Time will tell.
At what point does Apple cease caring about marketshare vis-a-vis Android? It's entirely an asymmetrical sort of relationship. One manufacturer with one OS with one or two phones versus an amorphous OS that is used by any number of OEMs manufacturing a diverse array of handsets.
It's only relevant should Android surpass the iPhone all of the following metrics: in hardware technology, software technology, user experience, customer service, and general ecosystem. While there may be those zealots on both sides who think one is far superior to the other, in reality, for the foreseeable future it is very much a mixed bag - iPhone does not necessarily lose if Android wins.
Finally, the amount of schadenfreude concerning Apple truly is second to none. Android has zero traction outside of the phone market, which is where iOS truly shines and while any number of people is taking delight in the downfall of iPhone due to no new form factor, there is a general willingness to declare Android the winner while this is a very consequential year for Android as well. What will happen to the relationship with other OEMs once the Motorola deal is done? What will the added price to an Oracle victory over Google be?
I imagine on Tuesday there will be a number of people claiming the final downfall of the iPhone and that should the general pattern of sales between iPhone generations continue, not one of them will admit they were wrong. Time will tell.
I think Engadget will get better with time, once the new staff finally finds their individual and collective voices. Then again, I've been saying that for months now, so for all I know this could be the best they can do. With that said, under Josh and Nilay Engadget seemed to have a better handle on covering the news and writing great editorials that engaged the audience. Now I can get the same news they post anywhere else. Let's not even get started on the constant flamewar of a commenting section they have...
You sound like an Apple user from the early 90's. How did the company fare after Windows gained excessive marketshare by developing an amorphous OS used by any number of OEMs manufacturing a diverse array of PCs?
I'm going to be pretty unhappy if they only come out with a 4S instead of the rumored thinner 5 with a slightly larger Retina screen. If they do, that means the 5 will be in 2012, and I'll be one year (or less) into a two year contract extension. I don't know if I'll upgrade from my 3Gs now or not. I bought it about a week before the 4 came out because I didn't believe they'd have a white 4.
I stood in line the night the original iPhone was released.
I stood in line the night the original iPhone was released.
There are any number of reasons why this is a poor and lazy analogy.
First, there are fundamental differences in a smartphone versus a personal computer ranging from how they happen to be used (are smartphones really just used to make phone calls or are they primarily computing devices, how do you measure their usefulness as computing devices for people?) to how they happen to be purchased (ecosystem of services, content, smoothness of user interface, individual style etc).
Second, Apple has managed to be price competitive. In the big picture price of a smart phone, there is very little price disparity between an iPhone and any other top tear smartphone.
Third, Android is not Windows 95 from a standardization or a technological standpoint. Nothing in the Android world screams that they are going to offer a technological advantage to users on the software side that will give it a demonstrable advantage over iOS. At the same time, even with the new Android OS coming out, there seems to be little done to cope with the forking of their OS.
Fourth, Apple does not seem to have a problem building and maintaining a base of software developers.
Or in summarizing, so long as Android does not outperform iOS in ALL of the following metrics: hardware technology, software technology, user interface, customer service, and ecosystem; iPhone does not lose if Android wins.
Naturally, you seemingly ignored that part of my post in order to cherry pick things to make an specious argument.
Putting an A5 with "revolutionary graphics" in a phone with a 3.5" screen is worthless. They need to have a 4" screen. 3.5" was big in 2007 but not in 2011.
1. Smartphones are becoming the PC equivalent of this generation. I highly suspect that in the future, if we want a desktop experience, we will simply plug our smartphones into our monitors. What they will ultimately be purchased for is the same as PCs: what brings greater utility.
2. Even if they remain price competitive, advantage remains to whoever has significantly greater market penetration. If Android is owned by 65% of users and iPhone by 20%, where will developers start to spend most of their efforts? Once the software on the Android side exceeds the software on the iOS side, Android has the advantage since iOS is offering less for the same price. I know that currently developers still make more with iOS because iOS users are more likely to spend money for apps, but that could change as Android presses further into the high end territory.
3. Fragmentation is an issue, but Google is obviously tightening up on it. Android phones, as much as you or I might hate to admit it, actually do provide more functionality and more services. iOS is limited. Think about this, what is actually closer in experience to the extremely functional OSX, iOS or Android?
4. The developers will ultimately go wherever they make the most money. Such is capitalism.
Windows 95 did not outperform Mac OS in all of those metrics, but with some serious business savvy, Microsoft figured out how to catch up with and out-compete Apple. I guarantee you Steve Jobs' greatest concern for the future of his company is a similar outcome this decade. Remember, about a year ago Apple actually started teaching classes on how the company should continue to function after Jobs was gone. The worst thing they could do is become complacent and be okay with lower marketshare in exchange for quality. It's a slippery slope.
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This is exactly what I've been saying, the competition apple has now is far greater than in 2007. They are forced to innovate and make every possible advancement they can in order to continue to wow the average customer and get them to purchase an iPhone over some of the great new phones coming out. Also, it is 100% true that the average customer wants to see something different than the previous year when they go out to buy a new phone. Yes, the iPhone 4 looks great, but that is irrelevant, because apple wants to bring in as many new and previous customers as possible, and the main draw to buy that new phone is the new sleek cool look and feel of the phone when compared to the previous year's phone.
This is exactly what I've been saying, the competition apple has now is far greater than in 2007. They are forced to innovate and make every possible advancement they can in order to continue to wow the average customer and get them to purchase an iPhone over some of the great new phones coming out. Also, it is 100% true that the average customer wants to see something different than the previous year when they go out to buy a new phone. Yes, the iPhone 4 looks great, but that is irrelevant, because apple wants to bring in as many new and previous customers as possible, and the main draw to buy that new phone is the new sleek cool look and feel of the phone when compared to the previous year's phone.
Even two years after the release of the 3GS, there aren't many games that challenge its technical strength. I'm quite impressed by how quick it is after all this time, and that's one of the reasons why a fast 4S phone isn't enticing: the 3GS isn't really that slow.
I agree with Topolsky (great Jewish surname 
).
Ultimate FAIL for Apple if there is no redesign.
The market share enjoyed by iOS powered devices is almost growing at an exponential rate at the moment. A lack of innovation will surely stunt this growth.
I can just see it now, consumers will walk into carrier store's with their iphone 4 in hand ready to upgrade to receive a statement from sales akin to "Well they only released a slight revision to the 4 so it looks exactly the same as your present device".
All stakeholders will be frustrated if there is only a slight revision. Carrier's will be ultimately annoyed as anyone with an 4 will have less of a reason to upgrade.
).Ultimate FAIL for Apple if there is no redesign.
The market share enjoyed by iOS powered devices is almost growing at an exponential rate at the moment. A lack of innovation will surely stunt this growth.
I can just see it now, consumers will walk into carrier store's with their iphone 4 in hand ready to upgrade to receive a statement from sales akin to "Well they only released a slight revision to the 4 so it looks exactly the same as your present device".
All stakeholders will be frustrated if there is only a slight revision. Carrier's will be ultimately annoyed as anyone with an 4 will have less of a reason to upgrade.
I think this is where you're wrong. Fewer and fewer new Android phones are compared to the iPhone. They've moved on and know their real competition is the next Android or W7 device. I can't remember the last high end Android that bothered to compare itself to the iPhone. Sad but true.
Maybe because there are so many options and those reviews are mainly to help them choose between the different flavors.
Can those phones actually beat the iPhone? Can you get all the apps and games you want?
Even Android based phones summed all together have a bigger market, their users are not consuming as much apps as the consumers of iOS devices. I still believe that Apple's App Store is still spearheading this game.
I also think that the security issues will change the Android market, or generate a lucrative business for antivirus software, like the PC market is.
What is the point on having hardware full of specs if you don't have good software to exploit it?
I agree, I think my gut is tell me it will only be an iPhone 4S. That's it. No redesign.
I BADLY want a redesign though, but I am keeping my expectations low. I think it's a BAD MOVE by Apple to not redesign the phone. People in this world are becoming so materialistic that they don't care about specs, they just want whatever is new and hip. And if Apple can't keep pace with Android-based phones in that department, it will eventually bite them in the ass.
Ethan
I BADLY want a redesign though, but I am keeping my expectations low. I think it's a BAD MOVE by Apple to not redesign the phone. People in this world are becoming so materialistic that they don't care about specs, they just want whatever is new and hip. And if Apple can't keep pace with Android-based phones in that department, it will eventually bite them in the ass.
Ethan
But when they designed 3GS, there was no Android phone yet, and by the time they started selling 3GS, there was only two Android phones - HTC Dream and Magic, and both were bad by comparison even to iPhone 3G. Now the competitive landscape has totally changed.
I agree with the view of Joshua Topolsky.
Do you know what date the podcast was on? I wanted to know if it was the one in Sept or today's one.
