KGI: Apple to Launch Cheaper MacBook Air in 2Q 2018

[firewood]

They are not converting the entire macOS platform over to ARM in Q2 2018... Before they even announce Marzipan in June at the earliest. Developers need time (probably more than a year of slow transitioning) to rewrite their apps. This isn't something that will happen overnight.

The don’t have to convert in 2018... because they very likely have already ported full macOS plus all their productivity apps to arm64 within a year or two of when they got their first 64-bit ARM processors, the A7.

Xcode can already build “fat” x86+arm64 binaries, no rewrites required, and a lot of developers are ready as soon as macOS and its UI frameworks are ready.

 

[toke lahti]

A pretty realistic preciction. I think a Retina display is still a no go for this price point. It would cannibalize 12” and especially 13” base MBP sales. Not going to happen. I also highly doubt they will have TB3. The cheapest TB3 notebooks cost about $800-$1000 and there aren’t that many. It’s still a premium feature that Apple will charge more for and USB-C does not mean TB3. Even the 12” MacBook doesn’t have it. I think it will remain pro only for a while. USB-C 3.1 gen 1 will be there. Most likely two USB-C 3.1 gen 1 ports, one USB-C 3.1 and one TB2 or two USB-C and a TB2 port. TB2 is still not dead and enough bandwidth for a value MacBook.

They will get rid of the SDXC slot as well. They will make people buy an adapter. Also the USB-C digital A/V adapter with USB type A and hdmi ports. No more than 8GB ram base at 1866mhz and 128GB storage but nowhere near as fast as the MBPs. And a headphone jack.

Apple introducing new Mac in 2018 with tb2 and selling that for the next decade? Last time they introduced new model with tb2 was in 2015. Maybe they should bring also tb1 back? I’m still using fw, so bring that back also!

 

[Mainsail]

I really see three general types of users: consumers, pros, and ultraportable road warriors.

1. The consumer category is by far the largest (maybe 80% of users). It consists of students, home users, and typical office workers. These users mainly need email, calendar, notes, messaging, web browser, productivity apps (MS Office, iWorks, etc) and access to corporate data. Laptops have been doing this stuff for a couple of decades, so just about any reasonable computer will do. The MBA is a great laptop for these activities, and it simply needs a refresh to be viable for years to come. My daughter recently graduated from University and landed a job in Business Consulting for a large firm. They gave her a MBA to use as her primary computer.......so, it is still a viable machine for work. BTW - I would consider routine processor updates and maybe an improved 1080p IPS display to be “refreshes” rather than a complete “redesign”. Apple has refreshed the MBA many times with minor improvments, such as: Added Backlit Keyboard and Replaced Mini Display Port with Thunderbolt 2.

2. The pro category is for quants and creatives. These are people that spend a large amount of time on the computer doing things like building massive financial models, engineering simulations, CAD drawings, and professional movie/video editing. The funny thing about this group is that many of them prefer work stations to laptops because they need multiple screens and significant computing power plus an ergonomic workplace to accommodate hours and hours of computing. When I had financial analysts working for me, a few spent their entire day building massive spreadsheets from large corporate data bases. They would have found using a laptop with a 13-15 inch screen laughable.

3. The ultraportable is for the road warrior that needs to do a fair amount of work in a cramped airplane seat on a tiny tray table. It’s kind of a niche category.

So, if you generally buy into the categories listed above, I think it makes perfect sense for Apple to keep the MBA around for a while longer. Otherwise, they run the risk of turning their backs on a very large segment of the laptop buying public. If this rumor about a lower cost MBA has any truth, it is because Apple still sells a bunch of MBAs........perhaps their most popular laptop. It would be a pretty risky to remove the MBA from their lineup and count on sales of the rMB and MBP to make up the difference......especially, considering the problems they are having with the faulty keyboard mechanisms on these models after almost 3 years of production.

 

[ksec]

If Apple is actually working on an update to the MacBook Air, then I think that's great, but you have to remember, this is Apple. When these updates do happen, they tend to infuriate as much as they delight. Here is what I can envisage them doing -

Delight - CPU - Intel has discontinued higher end Broadwell CPUs and the CPUs that Apple is using in the current MBA have no Broadwell-based successor. I do not think Apple would go with Skylake CPUs at this point, since the U-series (6360U,6660U) were superseded by Kaby Lake U-Series (7360U, 7660U) so quickly. Couple that with the inevitable update to quad-core Coffee Lake U-Series in the 13" MacBook Pro at some point this year, leaving dual-core Kaby Lake as a logical choice. It also ensures compatibility with HEVC and HEIF in future macOS updates. So minimum Skylake, but I am hedging towards Kaby Lake U-Series.

Both - RAM - 8GB LPDDR3 standard, 16GB LPDDR3 BTO. Apple is not giving you a DIMM slot for your own upgrades, let it go.

Infuriate - Flash Storage - 128, 256, 512 and new 1TB BTO options, nVME, but slower than MacBook Pro storage. Apple is going to solder this to the board after years of using a proprietary slot.

Neither - GPU - Built-in...it's a MacBook Air, if you want a discrete GPU, buy an MBP.

Both - Ports - USB 3 Type-A (x2), SDXC Card reader, headphone jack and TB3 replaces TB2, with two ports, one of which replaces the MagSafe port. Again, let it go. MagSafe had it's day and Apple wants to standardize power delivery to USB-C.

Both - Display - 1680X1050, but it will be an IP-S panel. I think Apple can get IP-S at the price it wants and I don't think the battery hit will be that bad, given that the CPU is a bit more power efficient. Apple is not going to put a Retina display in a "value" portable. If you want Retina, they are going to push you to a 12" MacBook or a 13" MacBook Pro.

Both - Keyboard - Not the current keyboard, but not the butterfly one either...more than likely, the Magic Keyboard mechanism will be used. It's cheaper to implement in a value portable and allows Apple to discontinue manufacturing the current MacBook Air mechanism. Also, expect it have the arrow keys that NOBODY seems to like.

Both - Trackpad - Force Touch, and bigger, but not as big as it's Pro siblings.

I think we might see some minor chassis mods for revised airflow, the revised ports, larger trackpad, etc. I expect the lighted Apple logo to disappear to fall in line with the current MBP ID. My opinion is that Apple management thinks it's cheesy and not dignified enough.

The iSight will stay at 720p. I think the screen will be made a tad thinner, maybe the body as well, but I wouldn't count on it if Apple is trying to maximize it's existing investment without retooling the innards too much. hopefully, tiered/terraced batteries make an appearance and we still get the phenomenal battery life that made the MBA famous.

We'll see if I'm right, if Apple actually releases an update, but that's a big IF.

There is your wish list for MBA update, and there is the rumours of price drop. It is one of the other. I dont see anything in that list that is possible for price drop. Remember Apple's margin is a constant Number.
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Ben Bajarin is pushing for a cheaper MBA with retina and updated specs. Says it would take share from Windows. My question is how does Apple update internals and screen to retina and lower the price to $799 or $899? And if they did that wouldn’t it be overlapping with the MacBook and 13” non-touchbar MBP? The lineup would be incredibly confusing.

Updating the MBA to say 1080P, wouldn't make it Retina. The Retina used MB and MBP are 220 to 227 PPI.
The current MBA is 128PPI, updating it to 1080P only makes it 166PPI, still quite some way to go before it becomes Retina.

If Apple were to continue its use of TN Panel, then the BOM cost should only be a few dollars difference. Heck even switching to e-IPS it should only be $10 - $15 difference.

The Apple T2, used in iMac Pro, is another candidate for cost saving, as it integrate many components into one. You could expect $10 to $15 dollar saving here.

If Apple were to have W3, its wireless chip with 802.11ac and bluetooth, it could save another $10 to $15 dollar here.

Dropping Thunderbolt All together. It is an entry level Notebook, may be TB is not needed. Use USB 3.1 / 3.2 instead. That is a saving of $10, those TB controller from Intel are really expensive. Although I say this is not necessarily needed as Intel is opening up TB, may be Apple could integrate TB into T Series chip. ( Is that why it is code name as T? )

Since you cant do much with NAND and Memory pricing. The only thing left is CPU.

Unless Apple switch to AMD Ryzen APU, or Intel Pentium Goldmount Plus chip, I just dont see it hitting $799.

 

[tresmith]

Apple is reluctant to update the Air for fear of cannibalization. A macbook Air with retina and a nice bump in speed would be the best laptop for the average consumer especially at that $1000 price mark. No one would buy the 12" macbook nor the 13" macbook pro if that were the case.

 

[CWallace]

Apple is reluctant to update the Air for fear of cannibalization. A macbook Air with retina and a nice bump in speed would be the best laptop for the average consumer especially at that $1000 price mark. No one would buy the 12" macbook nor the 13" macbook pro if that were the case.

A MacBook air with a 13" Retina display and modern internals (CPU, iGPU, SSD, TB3/USB3, etc.) would be much closer to the $1300 price of a "MacBook Escape".

 

[Netniks]

I bit the bullet and bought a 13-inch MacBook Pro over Christmas. Retina screen was a big factor, with a dual-core i7 processor as a close second.

I anguished over this only because I couldn’t purchase an 11-inch MacBook Air that’s still available through Apple Ed. Despite the non-retina screen, I would have gone this route since the cpu can still be configured with a dual-core i7.

The MacBook Air is a rugged laptop that is perfect for educational buyers. Apple should tweak it so that it stays a viable alternative to the p.o.s. Chromebooks. The MacBook Pro is a nice laptop, but arguably not a great value at twice the cost of a comparably specced MacBook Air, IMHO.

 

[cuwickliffe]

I would welcome an entry-level Mac of some kind if only because it would make it easier to ramp some of my more-reluctant coworkers and relatives onto the macOS platform. Mac mini is great, but is in dire need of hardware updates. Without a Retina screen and updated innards, MacBook Air is DOA.

A new MacBook (Air) at $699 and Mac mini at $399 could bring some more market penetration Apple otherwise wouldn't have.

 

[cannono]

I would welcome an entry-level Mac of some kind if only because it would make it easier to ramp some of my more-reluctant coworkers and relatives onto the macOS platform. Mac mini is great, but is in dire need of hardware updates. Without a Retina screen and updated innards, MacBook Air is DOA.

A new MacBook (Air) at $699 and Mac mini at $399 could bring some more market penetration Apple otherwise wouldn't have.

They would absolutely never launch a notebook in 2018 at $699.

 

[qawes]

The material gains from losing a port has never been positive for most folks
(despite what a single Iviot and a handful of donglemakers want you to believe)

Not quite, or we would still be living in the days of firewire 400.

 

[firewood]

The material gains from losing a port has never been positive for most folks

Really? You want your new MacBook to include SCSI, RS-422 serial/AppleTalk, ADB, VGA, Firewire, and Ethernet ports, because losing them has no positive benefit for you?

 

[Zdigital2015]

There is your wish list for MBA update, and there is the rumours of price drop. It is one of the other. I dont see anything in that list that is possible for price drop. Remember Apple's margin is a constant Number.
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Updating the MBA to say 1080P, wouldn't make it Retina. The Retina used MB and MBP are 220 to 227 PPI.
The current MBA is 128PPI, updating it to 1080P only makes it 166PPI, still quite some way to go before it becomes Retina.

If Apple were to continue its use of TN Panel, then the BOM cost should only be a few dollars difference. Heck even switching to e-IPS it should only be $10 - $15 difference.

The Apple T2, used in iMac Pro, is another candidate for cost saving, as it integrate many components into one. You could expect $10 to $15 dollar saving here.

If Apple were to have W3, its wireless chip with 802.11ac and bluetooth, it could save another $10 to $15 dollar here.

Dropping Thunderbolt All together. It is an entry level Notebook, may be TB is not needed. Use USB 3.1 / 3.2 instead. That is a saving of $10, those TB controller from Intel are really expensive. Although I say this is not necessarily needed as Intel is opening up TB, may be Apple could integrate TB into T Series chip. ( Is that why it is code name as T? )

Since you cant do much with NAND and Memory pricing. The only thing left is CPU.

Unless Apple switch to AMD Ryzen APU, or Intel Pentium Goldmount Plus chip, I just dont see it hitting $799.

Agreed...I don't see Apple aiming for $799 either, but I do see them trying to hit $999 with incremental upgrades that would update the MacBook Air for the next few years and still preserve their margins. My list wasn't a wish list, it was a feasible progression based on the available components. Intel would love to phase out Broadwell sooner rather than later and I think Skylake as well if you asked them.

For the most part, Apple can use the current non-TB 13" MacBook Pro as a guide for a new MBA motherboard. The cost of the equivalent Kaby Lake U-Series CPUs (i5-7360U - $304.00 i7-7660U - $415.00) are $11 cheaper than their Broadwell U-Series predecessors (i5-5350U - $315.00, i7-5650U - $426.00). The TB3 controller Apple uses (JHL6540) is $8.55, although it is superseded by the JHL7540, which is $9.10. I doubt the TB2 controller was any cheaper. Apple will have Thunderbolt 3 in this machine for a variety of reasons. The fact that the MacBook doesn't have it makes no difference to them, as it will by next year at the latest.

Adding an option to go to 16GB is a cost the user incurs, ditto for upgrading the Flash Storage. Whether or not RAM or NAND prices drop anytime soon remains to be seen, but I sincerely doubt they will.

Replacing the MagSafe with a USB-C/TB3 port, changing the TB port on the other side, making the trackpad larger, replacing the keyboard, possibly engineering a new battery, making the panel enclosure thinner/eliminating the lighted logo are all engineering costs that are figured into equation.

The only variable I can see in keeping an upgraded MBA with base CPU 8GB RAM/128GB storage from hitting the $999.00 price point is going to be getting a 1680X1050 13.3" I-PS panel at the same cost as a 1440X900 TN panel and I think that is doable given the sheer volume of I-PS panels that are produced versus 3 years ago when the MBA received it's last update. Apple has a long relationship with LG, I'm sure that they have a panel that will work at the price Apple wants.

All in all, while I don't think a new MBA will be any cheaper than it's current $999, I do think that an update that preserves Apple's margins isn't a far fetched idea.

 

[lowendlinux]

Apple is reluctant to update the Air for fear of cannibalization. A macbook Air with retina and a nice bump in speed would be the best laptop for the average consumer especially at that $1000 price mark. No one would buy the 12" macbook nor the 13" macbook pro if that were the case.

I'd still buy the MB because it's fanless

 

[Abazigal]

Apple is reluctant to update the Air for fear of cannibalization. A macbook Air with retina and a nice bump in speed would be the best laptop for the average consumer especially at that $1000 price mark. No one would buy the 12" macbook nor the 13" macbook pro if that were the case.

I think that for all intent and purposes, the MacBook is the upgraded MacBook Air. The air is really just hanging around on life support until Apple devices to finally do away with it.

 

[Falhófnir]

One question I do have is does he mean Apple’s Q2 or everyone else’s Q2?

 

[JPack]

One question I do have is does he mean Apple’s Q2 or everyone else’s Q2?

Calendar Q2'18.

 

[CWallace]

One question I do have is does he mean Apple’s Q2 or everyone else’s Q2?

Calendar Q2'18.

Assuming Apple has an event this month or uses a PR blitz to announce the iPhone SE2, AirPower mat, new Air Pods and a price drop on the iPad 9.7, a price drop on the MacBook Air would make sense as being part of it, too.

 

[Brandhouse]

Lol you want the most accurate Mac rumor guy to go away and you’re posting this on a Mac rumors site. The irony...

But the amount of drivel that is quoted from Ming gets very tiring. There are rumours and there are rumours.

 

[cincygolfgrrl]

Most people want a computer that just works—bells, whistles, and touchbars be damned. There are reports the MBA is still Apple's best-selling laptop because it keeps the extras, like price-exploding retina, to a minimum while being a very dependable machine. We, the nerds and geeks, want everything maxed. That doesn't sell as well in the real world.

 

[Populus]

why keep the Air even around? They got rid of the iPad Air line. Just make the MacBook cheaper.

Just spit balling here but I wouldnt mind seeing:

iPad (one size)
iPad Pro (different sizes)

MacBook (one size)
MacBook Pro (different sizes)

iPhone (one size)
iPhone X (different sizes)

iMac
iMac Pro

When I read Macrumors comments and forum post, I think Apple should read us and listen us a bit more. This comment has a lot of sense. Well, I'd leave the iPad mini, with the same specs than the regular iPad. Also, I would keep the Non-TouchBar MacBook Pro as well. But the rest of the lineup can be streamlined like this man says.

 

[DocMultimedia]

Did Apple pull the 11inch MacBook Air from the refurbished list this week? I'd swear I saw both 11 and 13 listed when I checked on the weekend. I'm looking to buy a refurbed 13inch, and neither has been in stock the past week. But I really think it showed both a day or two ago (as it does for MacBook Pro). Hmm. Still think I'm going to buy a 2017 13inch if it shows up.

 

[CWallace]

Did Apple pull the 11inch MacBook Air from the refurbished list this week? I'd swear I saw both 11 and 13 listed when I checked on the weekend.

It's an End of Life product so there might not be any refurbished stock left.

 

[rtdunham]

That new style keyboard feels a little odd to me too.

I've got my fully-maxed MBP with TB for sale, because i can achieve neither the speed nor the accuracy of input on its keyboard that i get with my MBA. A shame. I love all the MBP's features & specs and would buy a new one in a minute if it came with the MBA keyboard.

 

[DocMultimedia]

It's an End of Life product so there might not be any refurbished stock left.

Ah, Thanks. Guess I missed the EOL on that one. Makes sense with the MacBook.

 

[Bearxor]

Expect it to be ARM-based as it's a great way to test the market. If you want a real Intel MBA then grab one now.

Yep, my first thought when I saw this story.

Microsoft is doing it this year I expect Apple won’t be far behind.