Kindle Fire at 55% of android market. The time is ripe for the 7.85" iPad!

[Mad Mac Maniac]

http://www.engadget.com/2012/04/26/comscore-kindle-fire-android-tablet-market-share/

The people have spoken and they are saying that they want a smaller, cheaper tablet. Obviously the 10" iPad is selling better than the Fire, but other venders will continue to push inexpensive, smaller alternatives and until Apple tries to plug that hole they will lose potential customers.

 

[nfl46]

Naw, its not time, yet. Wait until Xmas time or next year.

 

[TheWheelMan]

I wonder if Apple can get a smaller iPad down to that price point without limiting its functionality? Not everyone really needs the full power of an iPad, so unless they can match the price, Kindle Fire may continue winning that segment of the market.

 

[dmccloud]

Seems to me if Apple made a 7.85" device with the same resolution as the iPad/iPad2, they could gain the advantages of a sharper display (similar to the iPhone 4/4s and 3rd gen iPad) without forcing app developers to design for a third resolution. The only drawback would be that icons/page elements would be smaller than on current iPads, but if you target such a device towards the K-12 market and even colleges, that might not be as big a concern. I also think they could get the price in the $249 range without placing too much pressure on product margins. For starters, they wouldn't need to include LTE/3G as an option, and the smaller screen would be less expensive than those used in the other models. The glass and case components would also be less expensive as they would also be smaller.

 

[MrXiro]

Seems to me if Apple made a 7.85" device with the same resolution as the iPad/iPad2, they could gain the advantages of a sharper display (similar to the iPhone 4/4s and 3rd gen iPad) without forcing app developers to design for a third resolution. The only drawback would be that icons/page elements would be smaller than on current iPads, but if you target such a device towards the K-12 market and even colleges, that might not be as big a concern. I also think they could get the price in the $249 range without placing too much pressure on product margins. For starters, they wouldn't need to include LTE/3G as an option, and the smaller screen would be less expensive than those used in the other models. The glass and case components would also be less expensive as they would also be smaller.

Well Amazon was/is selling the Kindle Fire at a loss at 199.99... and we all know Apple would never do that... not come close to that even.

Making a 7.XX inch tablet at iPad 2 resolution makes it at very least higher density if it's not considered "retina" and that'll cost more money than the lower resolution Kindle Fire Screen.

I smell $299 for an 8gb model as the base, not based on any facts but just my speculation and logic.

 

[Carouser]

The people have spoken and they are saying that they want a smaller, cheaper tablet.

You're assuming that people are selecting the tablet based on size and price when it may be either or even neither.

You're also mischaracterizing "the subset of consumers who bought a Fire" as "the people" as though it is a generalizable demand.

Obviously the 10" iPad is selling better than the Fire

This means according to your previous logic that 'the people have spoken' and that they are saying they really want a 10" iPad.

but other venders will continue to push inexpensive, smaller alternatives and until Apple tries to plug that hole they will lose potential customers.

You're assuming that those buying 'inexpensive, smaller alternatives' would have otherwise been Apple customers.

 

[nuckinfutz]

Pretty much says it all.

Price does matter.

I don't think Apple has to be at $199 but a $299 iPad mini this fall before the busy Xmas shopping season would be right on along with the 6th generation iPhone.

Apple's not going to let Amazon and Google flank them with cheap tablets.

 

[poloponies]

http://www.engadget.com/2012/04/26/comscore-kindle-fire-android-tablet-market-share/

The people have spoken and they are saying that they want a smaller, cheaper tablet. Obviously the 10" iPad is selling better than the Fire, but other venders will continue to push inexpensive, smaller alternatives and until Apple tries to plug that hole they will lose potential customers.

People want cheaper, period. There are countless parents who won't shell out $500 for an iPad but will pay $200 for a Kindle Fire. That doesn't mean the demand is there for 7" devices, it means that the market for $200 tablets can only be filled with the smaller size tablet.

Amazon fills that need by keeping it cheap; cheap display, no cellular option, no GPS, no camera, barely-there storage. It's an ideal device for the Amazon ecosystem and a device that can only exist in the Amazon ecosystem.

A $200 feature-limited, brand x tablet has little market unless it syncs effortlessly with the content Amazon can provide.

That's not Apple's business model. They can't make a smaller size iPad that will cost hundreds less than the existing iPad. Maybe $100 less, possibly $125, but that's really not enough to drive a market.

 

[TheWheelMan]

What's also being overlooked here is that Amazon has cultivated its own fiercely loyal fan base, and it's very large as well. The Kindle Fire may mostly be selling to that segment of the market, which would both provide those impressive numbers and yet not be as receptive to a mini iPad.

Don't get me wrong. I think Apple could make a two inch iPad and a 70 inch iPad and somehow manage to sell millions, but I don't think anything about Kindle Fire sales reflects how much of a market there is for Apple. In fact, I think Amazon comparing the Fire to the iPad is a huge mistake. That just might be enough to motivate Apple to seriously go after the mini tablet market, where as otherwise I think the two would be considered entirely different animals.

 

[batotman]

Well Amazon was/is selling the Kindle Fire at a loss at 199.99... and we all know Apple would never do that... not even come close to that even.

Making a 7.XX inch tablet at iPad 2 resolution makes it at very least higher density if it's not considered "retina" and that'll cost more money than the lower resolution Kindle Fire Screen.

I smell $299 for an 8gb model as the base, not based on any facts but just my speculation and logic.

$299 might not be a bad price point but can't imagine 8GB....they do make nice chunk of money on content and 8 to 16GB is a very minor cost difference.

In the case of the 8GB iPhone 4, I figured they did that to discourage people from choosing a 16GB 4 over a 16GB 4S. A smaller ipad would be a different product and much easier to differentiate.

 

[DeathChill]

John Gruber threw this out earlier and it *may* be a hint:

Apple seems to be having it both ways with the iPad, but I suspect they’d prefer to err on the side of maximizing market share than maximizing profits.

I’m trying to keep this in mind as I ponder the idea of a $249 7.8-inch iPad.

 

[japasneezemonk]

John Gruber threw this out earlier and it *may* be a hint:

If you listen to his podcast Gruber also mentioned that if Apple were to sell a smaller tablet, they would probably market it as a larger ipod touch. So they could potentially sell both an 3.5" and a 5 to 7" ipod touch.

----------

What's also being overlooked here is that Amazon has cultivated its own fiercely loyal fan base, and it's very large as well. The Kindle Fire may mostly be selling to that segment of the market, which would both provide those impressive numbers and yet not be as receptive to a mini iPad.

Don't get me wrong. I think Apple could make a two inch iPad and a 70 inch iPad and somehow manage to sell millions, but I don't think anything about Kindle Fire sales reflects how much of a market there is for Apple. In fact, I think Amazon comparing the Fire to the iPad is a huge mistake. That just might be enough to motivate Apple to seriously go after the mini tablet market, where as otherwise I think the two would be considered entirely different animals.

Yeah, I agree.

 

[eastercat]

I can't see apple doing a cheap tablet, especially one that cuts its profit margins to the bone. They're not going to make a loss leader.
So the real question is, if they make a 7" tablet, how much is it going to cost? That's what people who clamor for the smaller ipad should be asking themselves? This means a realistic pricing, not some trumped up fantasy of what you want to pay, but an actual look at components cost and the profit margin that apple likes to have on their products. Right now, it doesn't seem like there's a realistic look at a realistic price.

 

[Yr Blues]

I can't see apple doing a cheap tablet, especially one that cuts its profit margins to the bone. They're not going to make a loss leader.
So the real question is, if they make a 7" tablet, how much is it going to cost? That's what people who clamor for the smaller ipad should be asking themselves? This means a realistic pricing, not some trumped up fantasy of what you want to pay, but an actual look at components cost and the profit margin that apple likes to have on their products. Right now, it doesn't seem like there's a realistic look at a realistic price.

The iPod Touch is is $199 and the iPad 2 is $399. That leaves room for a $299 SKU. Nice and neat.

Then the question is, would someone buy a 7-inch tablet for $299 or an iPad 2 for $399 … for just $100 more?

 

[eastercat]

There'll always be the cheap asses who will buy the cheapest thing, quality be damned. At $299, assuming it's a realistic cost, it's still $100 more than the kindle fire. The people who want the cheap tablet are still going to gravitate towards the kindle. However, the people who were saving up for the $399 or $499 ipad are going to get the $299 ipad instead.
If you're going to cannibalize sales, I'd imagine you'd want to steer people towards the item of higher profit margin. If apple's managed to get a higher profit margin off the 7.85", then they'll likely make more money. Otherwise, it's not likely to happen.

The other issue I forgot to mention in my other post is the fragmentation of the ipad apps. From what I've read, designers do custom UIs for ios apps. An app for a 10" isn't going to work in 7.85". So I'm also not sure how this is viable.

Don't get me wrong. I'd love to see a cheaper ipad. I just don't know if it's realistic within apple's business model.

The iPod Touch is is $199 and the iPad 2 is $399. That leaves room for a $299 SKU. Nice and neat.

Then the question is, would someone buy a 7-inch tablet for $299 or an iPad 2 for $399 … for just $100 more?

 

[Yr Blues]

From what I've read, designers do custom UIs for ios apps. An app for a 10" isn't going to work in 7.85". So I'm also not sure how this is viable.

But the rumored 7.85" screen would have the same resolution as the iPad 2, so the UI would be exactly the same … 1024 x 768. No reprogramming necessary.

 

[MacAttacka]

There is absolutely no money to be made competitng with the kindle. Its a loss leader for amazon and they're praying they make their money on software.

Personally Im pleased to see some competition for the iPad at long last but i dont think Apple need to fear.

Headlines like "kindle fire at 55% of Android market" sound quite scary until you look at the actual sales figures compared to the iPad.

This is less about the screen size anyway. I bet Amazon would have even greater than 55% had they gone the full 10" for the same price.

Lastly, I bet a lot of Amazonians who dip their toe with the Fire and very likely to upgrade to the iPad 2 once they get a taste of what tablet computing has to offer.

 

[ZipZap]

Mark my words. A 7" iPad spells the end of the regular ipad.

The smaller form factor will be preferred by all.

 

[gnasher729]

http://www.engadget.com/2012/04/26/comscore-kindle-fire-android-tablet-market-share/

The people have spoken and they are saying that they want a smaller, cheaper tablet. Obviously the 10" iPad is selling better than the Fire, but other venders will continue to push inexpensive, smaller alternatives and until Apple tries to plug that hole they will lose potential customers.

Your fallacy is to assume that the number of customers is essential or important. That is wrong. What is essential is revenue and profit. Amazon has a strategy where they sell the Kindle just at cost or even at a loss, trying to make up for that loss with the sale of books (which Apple made a lot harder for them by offering the publishers a fair deal on book sales). Apple sells its products at a profit. Your other fallacy is to assume that people want a smaller tablet. They don't. They all would prefer a bigger tablet at a lower price but have to accept the smaller size because that reduces the cost.

What this news shows is that people don't want to pay much money for tablets that are not iPads. So 55% of Android tablets are Kindle Fires. Another huge portion are the cheap no name tablets that are cheap enough that I might buy one just because I'm curious how bad it is. The iPad 2 has just been reduced to $399, so all the $399 Android tablets have now become unsellable except to the most hardened Android fans.

 

[Hepnotic]

I bought an iPad partly because I'm not a fan of 7 inch tablets. To me they look like jumbo smart phones. They're too big to fit in your pocket yet too small to be ideal for watching full-length movies on or gaming for extended periods of time.

 

[VFC]

I bought an iPad partly because I'm not a fan of 7 inch tablets. To me they look like jumbo smart phones. They're too big to fit in your pocket yet too small to be ideal for watching full-length movies on or gaming for extended periods of time.

The Fire fits in my son's coat pocket and my daughter's handbag, At home, my son carries his Fire around in his hand; most all of the time. It's the perfect form factor for them. I asked my son if he wanted an iPad for his birthday, and he said it was too big and that his Fire did all that he needed.

 

[Blakjack]

Doesn't mean the time is right. Just means Androids in a whole lot of trouble if the device that barely uses its platform makes up more than half the Android tablet sales.

I was reading an article yesterday and it made note of ICS being in huge trouble because the majority of android tablet users have never seen it because they all own the kindle fires. Google is losing control of their OS...fast!

And if the Kindle Fire is the only thing competing against the iPad, there's is absolutely no need for Apple to go cheap with a smaller cheaper tablet just because some people would like a smaller one.

 

[nfl46]

Mark my words. A 7" iPad spells the end of the regular ipad.

The smaller form factor will be preferred by all.

I agree to an extent. The smaller version will outsell the larger version but I don't think it'll be anything like 4 million (7.85) to 1 million (9.7).

But yeah, Apple its time for a smaller tablet. 9.7 is uncomfortable to read in bed.

My guess is:

New iPad (9.7") - $499
iPad 2 (9.7") - $399
New iPad (7.85") - $249
iPhone (4") - $199
iPod Touch (4") - $199

That's ideal in my opinion for Fall 2012.

And the new 5" device Apple is working on in 2013 will replace the iPod touch to distinguish it from the iPhone.

 

[carefreecork]

The Fire fits in my son's coat pocket and my daughter's handbag, At home, my son carries his Fire around in his hand; most all of the time. It's the perfect form factor for them. I asked my son if he wanted an iPad for his birthday, and he said it was too big and that his Fire did all that he needed.

I think this is an interesting point - the reduced size appears ideal for the young and for use in schools.

At a $299 price the iPad 'mini' sits perfectly in the range and even though the base present iPad is only $100 more, I can see a market for both models.

At the end of the iPad keynote Tim Cook said there was lots more come - we shall see - new iPhone and iPad 'mini' in October?

 

[poloponies]

At a $299 price the iPad 'mini' sits perfectly in the range and even though the base present iPad is only $100 more, I can see a market for both models.

I know playing SimCEO is fun but there's no way to profitably sell a smaller tablet with the iPad's functionality at $299. Merely finding it to be a comfortable price point doesn't get you very far. If Amazon isn't making money on their feature-deprived Fire then adding features isn't going to make a 7"+ iPad feasible at $299.