Kuo: Apple Has Opportunity With iPhone XR in China as Chinese Rivals Face 'Lower Than Expected' Demand

[MacRumors]

In a research note obtained by MacRumors, Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said cumulative smartphone shipments from four major brands on the Chinese market, including Huawei, Oppo, Vivo, and Xiaomi, declined 10 percent on a year-over-year basis during China's Golden Week, a national holiday and major sales period.

iPhone XR in (PRODUCT)RED​

Kuo, writing on behalf of research firm TF International Securities, said the estimated 6.5-7 million shipments during Golden Week were "lower than expected." He called Huawei the "major winner" as the only brand with a year-over-year increase in shipments during the October 1-7 holiday.

The well-known analyst attributed the year-over-year decline to a lack of innovative selling points among Chinese-brand smartphones. Kuo is positive on the trends of triple-lens cameras and fingerprint sensors under the display in smartphones, but said only limited models currently support both functions.

Kuo also cautioned that the US-China trade war "may be affecting consumer confidence, which makes the replacement cycle longer."

A third reason is that some consumers--particularly existing iPhone owners--will opt for more affordable legacy iPhone models or wait for the iPhone XR, according to Kuo, who expects replacement demands for the iPhone XR in China will be better than last year's demand for the iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus.

Extrapolating from Golden Week, Kuo said smartphone shipments in China in 2018 as a whole may be "lower than expected." He estimates shipments may decline 10-15 percent to 410 million units on a year-over-year basis.

Chinese brands have to rely on overseas markets for further growth, according to the research note, shared with investors Thursday. Kuo remains confident about Huawei's future shipment momentum because the brand has "the best competitiveness among Chinese brands in overseas markets," the note said.

As for Apple, the iPhone XR represents an opportunity for the company to increase its market share and revenue in the Greater China region, where it has faced increasing competition from the likes of Huawei, Oppo, Vivo, and Xiaomi.

With a lower starting price of $749 in the United States, the iPhone XR lacks some of the bells and whistles of the flagship iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max, including an OLED display and glass rear casing, but it has many identical tech specs and longer battery life than both of the more expensive models.

iPhone XR pre-orders begin Friday, October 19 in more than 50 countries, followed by in-store availability on Friday, October 26.

Article Link: Kuo: Apple Has Opportunity With iPhone XR in China as Chinese Rivals Face 'Lower Than Expected' Demand

 

[ChrisCW11]

If the Chinese market is disappointed with the "innovation" of current phone offerings, certainly the iPhone XR is not offering anything more then what companies like Xiaomi and Oppo have been offering for a year or more, also considering the XR will probably still be more expensive then the other Chinese flagships and is just a slightly retooled iPhone 8 with a notch.

I think its just a poor year for cellphone innovation as they are on the tock cycle where there is nothing really new to offer from all phone companies. Last year it was the notch and bezel free screens which drove up sales, this year its a second generation of this style of phone design and not much more is different across the board. Even the Xs phones are kind of lacking in appeal after the first burst of sales wear off.

 

[AngerDanger]

A third reason is that some consumers--particularly existing iPhone owners--will opt for more affordable legacy iPhone models or wait for the iPhone XR, according to Kuo, who expects replacement demands for the iPhone XR in China will be better than last year's demand for the iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus.

*grips iPhone SE* Yeah, I can understand that… *sniffles*

 

[Jwil736]

If the Chinese market is disappointed with the "innovation" of current phone offerings, certainly the iPhone XR is not offering anything more then what companies like Xiaomi and Oppo have been offering for a year or more, also considering the XR will probably still be more expensive then the other Chinese flagships and is just a slightly retooled iPhone 8 with a notch.

I think its just a poor year for cellphone innovation as they are on the tock cycle where there is nothing really new to offer from all phone companies. Last year it was the notch and bezel free screens which drove up sales, this year its a second generation of this style of phone design and not much more is different across the board. Even the Xs phones are kind of lacking in appeal after the first burst of sales wear off.

I can agree to that. I feel a lot of iPhone SE customers will be upgrading to the iPhone XR. The iPhone XR will be extremely popular with teens and children due to color options like the 5c was and lower cost.

 

[thenewyorkgod]

All set to pre-order three for the family. The XR is gonna kick it out of the park.

 

[now i see it]

Saving up for that iPhone 5 on Swappa

 

[Princejb134]

If the Chinese market is disappointed with the "innovation" of current phone offerings, certainly the iPhone XR is not offering anything more then what companies like Xiaomi and Oppo have been offering for a year or more, also considering the XR will probably still be more expensive then the other Chinese flagships and is just a slightly retooled iPhone 8 with a notch.

I think its just a poor year for cellphone innovation as they are on the tock cycle where there is nothing really new to offer from all phone companies. Last year it was the notch and bezel free screens which drove up sales, this year its a second generation of this style of phone design and not much more is different across the board. Even the Xs phones are kind of lacking in appeal after the first burst of sales wear off.

what does apple offer that xiaomi and oppo doesn't? I actual good, speedy, reliable, nice to look at OS. Android OS is just so cheap looking but they do have better functionality, but that's debatable.

 

[usersince86]

Was hoping for an updated SE, but will be buying an XR. Not thrilled about fitting it in my pocket, though!

 

[Baymowe335]

Finally, "Lowered than expected demand" for companies other than Apple.

 

[thebeans]

In a research note obtained by MacRumors, Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said cumulative smartphone shipments from four major brands on the Chinese market, including Huawei, Oppo, Vivo, and Xiaomi, declined 10 percent on a year-over-year basis during China's Golden Week, a national holiday and major sales period.

iPhone XR in (PRODUCT)RED​

Kuo, writing on behalf of research firm TF International Securities, said the estimated 6.5-7 million shipments during Golden Week were "lower than expected." He called Huawei the "major winner" as the only brand with a year-over-year increase in shipments during the October 1-7 holiday.

The well-known analyst attributed the year-over-year decline to a lack of innovative selling points among Chinese-brand smartphones. Kuo is positive on the trends of triple-lens cameras and fingerprint sensors under the display in smartphones, but said only limited models currently support both functions.

Kuo also cautioned that the US-China trade war "may be affecting consumer confidence, which makes the replacement cycle longer."

A third reason is that some consumers--particularly existing iPhone owners--will opt for more affordable legacy iPhone models or wait for the iPhone XR, according to Kuo, who expects replacement demands for the iPhone XR in China will be better than last year's demand for the iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus.

Extrapolating from Golden Week, Kuo said smartphone shipments in China in 2018 as a whole may be "lower than expected." He estimates shipments may decline 10-15 percent to 410 million units on a year-over-year basis.

Chinese brands have to rely on overseas markets for further growth, according to the research note, shared with investors Thursday. Kuo remains confident about Huawei's future shipment momentum because the brand has "the best competitiveness among Chinese brands in overseas markets," the note said.

As for Apple, the iPhone XR represents an opportunity for the company to increase its market share and revenue in the Greater China region, where it has faced increasing competition from the likes of Huawei, Oppo, Vivo, and Xiaomi.

With a lower starting price of $749 in the United States, the iPhone XR lacks some of the bells and whistles of the flagship iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max, including an OLED display and glass rear casing, but it has many identical tech specs and longer battery life than both of the more expensive models.

iPhone XR pre-orders begin Friday, October 19 in more than 50 countries, followed by in-store availability on Friday, October 26.

Article Link: Kuo: Apple Has Opportunity With iPhone XR in China as Chinese Rivals Face 'Lower Than Expected' Demand

“...... the iPhone XR lacks some of the bells and whistles of the flagship iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max, including an OLED display and glass rear casing.....”. Uhhh..the XR does have a glass back. So....

 

[Baymowe335]

If the Chinese market is disappointed with the "innovation" of current phone offerings, certainly the iPhone XR is not offering anything more then what companies like Xiaomi and Oppo have been offering for a year or more, also considering the XR will probably still be more expensive then the other Chinese flagships and is just a slightly retooled iPhone 8 with a notch.

I think its just a poor year for cellphone innovation as they are on the tock cycle where there is nothing really new to offer from all phone companies. Last year it was the notch and bezel free screens which drove up sales, this year its a second generation of this style of phone design and not much more is different across the board. Even the Xs phones are kind of lacking in appeal after the first burst of sales wear off.

Apple never had a better year for iPhone sales with the X and you're still talking about a notch?

The Xr is an entirely new model phone and the Xs Max is a new model with the larger screen size.

Apple will beat last year's epic iPhone year with the current lineup.

 

[CrysisDeu]

If you didn’t know already, take a look at oppo findx, vivo nex, mi8, oppo r17, meizu 16th, huawei pro20, and new honor phone, new mix3, both to be released in a month. You will be amazed

 

[Rogifan]

So people in China aren’t buying new phones because they don’t have triple lenses cameras or finger print sensors imbedded in the display? Please. This guy needs to find a new line of work. His research notes are getting more and more absurd.

 

[WannaGoMac]

Xr is going to sell an insane amount. The Xs just doesnt have enough to make it worthwhile for the vast majority of users.

 

[imgroot]

Pre-ordered three for the family. The XR is gonna kick it out of the park.

I thought pre-orders take place on October 19th?

 

[x-evil-x]

Xr is going to sell an insane amount. The Xs just doesnt have enough to make it worthwhile for the vast majority of users.

the screen alone makes the xs worth it.
Most people dont pay for their phone in full and id imagine a lot of people would rather pay what 8-12$ more a month for an xs than an xr but maybe im wrong.

 

[repoman016]

I'll stick with my 6s. I'm not spending 1000+ so i can have more emoji's

 

[WannaGoMac]

the screen alone makes the xs worth it.
Most people dont pay for their phone in full and id imagine a lot of people would rather pay what 8-12$ more a month for an xs than an xr but maybe im wrong.

Wanna bet $10 Xr slaughters Xs sales? Screen? Most people cant tell difference between 480p and 1080p let alone on a high quality LCD (thats a tiny 5.8-6.5" size) which is already "retina level."

[doublepost=1539267771][/doublepost]

I'll stick with my 6s. I'm not spending 1000+ so i can have more emoji's

If you think the difference between your ancient 6s and an Xr/Xs is emojis, then you definitely shouldn't bother upgrading. P.s. 6s was actually a great phone, huge CPU upgrade and last with a headphone jack...

 

[Justanotherfanboy]

If the Chinese market is disappointed with the "innovation" of current phone offerings, certainly the iPhone XR is not offering anything more then what companies like Xiaomi and Oppo have been offering for a year or more, also considering the XR will probably still be more expensive then the other Chinese flagships and is just a slightly retooled iPhone 8 with a notch.

I think its just a poor year for cellphone innovation as they are on the tock cycle where there is nothing really new to offer from all phone companies. Last year it was the notch and bezel free screens which drove up sales, this year its a second generation of this style of phone design and not much more is different across the board. Even the Xs phones are kind of lacking in appeal after the first burst of sales wear off.

Yeah, virtually all Chinese phones have included 6.1” screens w/ secure face identification, insanely fast 7nm processors, including 5.3 trillion calculations per second AI engines, top notch graphics & better battery life than any iPhone in history for over a year now- why would ANYONE want this silly phone??!!
Oh, no... wait. None of those things.

 

[x-evil-x]

Wanna bet $10 Xr slaughters Xs sales? Screen? Most people cant tell difference between 480p and 1080p let alone on a high quality LCD (thats a tiny 5.8-6.5" size) which is already "retina level."

[doublepost=1539267771][/doublepost]

If you think the difference between your ancient 6s and an Xr/Xs is emojis, then you definitely shouldn't bother upgrading. P.s. 6s was actually a great phone, huge CPU upgrade and last with a headphone jack...

ill hold my remarks on the screen till I see one but I dont have anything good to say about it based on specs.

 

[joueboy]

It's nice to see Apple became a trillion dollar company but profit on top of everything is getting ridiculous. I know you got to make investors happy and keep up Wall Street but how much more money these rich people need? I use to hear Steve Jobs words of making a difference on people's lives help mold for a better future. As he said as the technology matures and materials getting cheaper we see prices goes down but he also explains about why initial prices is high due to R&D and promises that eventually prices goes down for the upcoming generation. Now we only see prices are lower if you decide to buy the 2 year old device straight from Apple. I think it's time for Apple to return the favor to people that put them on the top and stop taking advantage of their customers because we still like them. Just sayin!

 

[H.E. Pennypacker]

Pre-ordered three for the family. The XR is gonna kick it out of the park.

You somehow have early access to pre orders, because they don’t start until the 19th.

 

[ISanych]

Most people dont pay for their phone in full

How do you know that?

 

[repoman016]

[doublepost=1539267771][/doublepost]

If you think the difference between your ancient 6s and an Xr/Xs is emojis, then you definitely shouldn't bother upgrading. P.s. 6s was actually a great phone, huge CPU upgrade and last with a headphone jack...[/QUOTE]

I know there is more to it than that, but when i can check every box on the list for things i need from a cell phone, the 6s hits them all. still.

 

[kaycrystal626]

iPhone is just getting too expensive. If I want a iPhone Xs, mostly like I have to get 256GB, and it will cost over $1300 after tax. It's like price of a Macbook Pro.