Kuo: Apple's Headset Coming End of 2022, Will Feature 'Pancake' Lenses

[deconstruct60]

My two cents:
Apple spread the rumors of the headset hight costs purposefully, to let the competition believe they have not much to worry about. But in reality this headset will cost much less than expected.

I wouldn't bet on that outcome. Two 4K microLED ( not mini or regular LED or OLED ) panels. Two SoCs ( one for display and one for housekeeping/wireless/etc. ) . Probably Wifi6E . another OLED panel thrown in ( either peripheral (non-foveal ) , controls , or ? ) .

and now highly custom glass to reduce the overall size.

(also pretty good chance Apple doesn't skimp on the multiple camera specs either. )

The drip , drip , drip of rumors here is that the expensive components keep piling up.

None of that is indicative that going to be low cost here. Very good chance this ends up like the XDR like pricing relative from previous Apple offerings. Goes back to the rumor reiterated a couple of times here that Apple has TWO goggles coming over next 2-3 years. One is this combo thing AR/VR and another focused on AR . And Apple has a AR foundation working on iPhones/iPads.
The one that Apple probably wants to sell in high volume is probably the second one; not the first. If they are not shooting for high volume with the first product, then there is substantively little upside in them trying to get into the "at cost" mud pit with Occulus and others. None.


Furthermore, Microsoft is essentially selling something in this general space. Hololens 2 $3,500

Microsoft HoloLens

Landing page for Microsoft HoloLens.

www.microsoft.com

So pretty good chance Apple pitches this as a "pro" tool that you use to make money with and therefore this isn't coming out of the "impulse buy for giggles " funds that joe applefan puts aside.
If Apple prices there's at $2,999 then they'll throw up a slide about how it is a 'bargin' relative to the Hololens and turn the reality distortion field on full blast. ( Just like "beyond HDR" XDR ).


To context : Sony Playstation VR2 is going to rolly 2000x2040 ( approx 4M pixels ) per eye ( not 3840 x 2160 approx 8M pixels )

https://blog.playstation.com/2022/0...ller-the-next-generation-of-vr-gaming-on-ps5/

The relatively more affordable Quest 2 : 1832 x 1920 per eye ( approx 3.5M ).



Also to context the Hololens has a custom chip only used in that device. Custom chips done in sub M volumes drive a higher price. ( as don't get economies of scale to distribute development costs over ).

So far indicative that Apple's device is on the same track. ( using A13 in prototypes likely as a "stub" for the custom process likely under development. )

 

[deconstruct60]

I don't believe any of these rumors. Apple's Tim Cook has repeatedly stated that AR will be as big as or bigger than iPhone. That means Apple needs AR devices to sell at the volume of iPhones - and that's not going to happen with a $3k VR headset. Even as a precursor, who is Apple going to market a $3k device to? T

To developers and content creators for AR apps for one.
( For example: If creating a 3D object going to deploy in AR could go into a VR mode were just work with the object by itself on a "blank" canvas. Scuplit it some. Do a gesture to get back to blended mode (AR) and look at it in the current room context. Rise and repeat. then shoot the draft model to a Mac wireless. )

To developers of "hands free" AR business apps. ( similar to the ecosystem around the Hololens )


A mainstream user might use an app on the lowest priced Macbook possible. But a developer of that app doesn't have to use the same tool to build the app. In fact, decent reasons not to in terms of edit/compile/debug turn around time impact on productivity.

here'd be essentially no game titles for it (other than the handful Apple will have enticed a few game developers to convert/create).

That has been the substantive problem with VR is that "games" are the only thing it is useful for. As long as cling to that then it is mainly a self fulling prophesy.

AR has worked on the iPhone/iPad , but there are certain usecases that is doesn't work with. If you need to use both hands, then can both hold/point the iPhone and do what you need to do.

What other general-public use cases are there for VR? For AR I can come up with limitless possibilities - but with VR, the only other use case I can see is as a desk/monitor replacement.

That is rather myopic. Actually getting dual 4+ K HDR 60Hz or better video back to a VR headset wirelesss is a challenge.

But the flaw here is the presumption that Apple is trying to make a general-public VR system here.
However, in a world where millions of folks have spent large number of hours in televidoe conferencing sessions ( Zoom, Teams , webex , FaceTime etc. ) then VR could work where doing more collaborative work than just almost purely talking at one another. If can do a meetings in Tokoyo , Mumbai , Berlin , and London in the same day and go home and sleep in your own bed ... that has upsides. There are times when getting folks in a same room gathered around a whiteboard and/or some other physical collaboration tools can work something out.

Instead of sitting down in front of your desk with multiple monitors to do your work, you could don this VR headset and accomplish the same thing. Being in VR makes you immobile (otherwise it would have to be an AR device) and VR/MR takes more power than AR, so you better stay near a power source LOL.

Large tableau of spanning monitors probably are not going to work as well in VR. Especially if doing foveal rendering to keep the rendering overhead down. Lots of scanning to multiple windows with substantively different content. Sometimes things off in the eye peripheral vision is useful.


Apple doesn't have limit themselves to just a high end VR model over the very long term. But to set a foundation for hands free AR , it would likely prove useful to have a "pro" that can mode switch . That one doesn't have to be "everything for everybody".

 

[deconstruct60]

Giving me real ‘original iPad’ vibes. Nobody thought that would only cost $500.

That isn't a good fit for this context.

Part of the iPad is going to cost $1000 was that folks though Apple was just going to scale up the same Retina, ( bleeding edge at the time) , screen from 3-4" to something like 9" . Same baseline screen tech tripled in size would likely cost substantially more. Hence iPad would cost way more than an iPhone ( even if used the same SoC , RAM , Camera , etc. .... the screen all by itself would cost much more).

Apple didn't go Retina resolution matching on first iteration of iPad. At this point in time the iPad line up is much broader. And now it is a reaonable expectation that the iPad Pro will cost more than a regular iPhone. ( iPad Pro has miniLED and iPhone doesn't ).

So far the rumors have not indicated that Apple is cutting corners on components. In fact, the rumors have been quite opposite. 4K resolution microLED screens is not a cost saving move. highly custom optic lens. Again not. New custom SoC not used in other products. etc. etc.

 

[tothemoonsands]

This feels like an Apple Watch 1 for me. I ended up getting one, but the next year's model was MUCH improved. It's going to take several iterations to get AR/VR usable, and even more iterations still to get it worthwhile/affordable. I highly doubt I will find any initial use-cases compelling enough to justify a purchase. Will be fun to see the progression though!

 

[UltimateSyn]

That isn't a good fit for this context.

Part of the iPad is going to cost $1000 was that folks though Apple was just going to scale up the same Retina, ( bleeding edge at the time) , screen from 3-4" to something like 9" . Same baseline screen tech tripled in size would likely cost substantially more. Hence iPad would cost way more than an iPhone ( even if used the same SoC , RAM , Camera , etc. .... the screen all by itself would cost much more).

Apple didn't go Retina resolution matching on first iteration of iPad. At this point in time the iPad line up is much broader. And now it is a reaonable expectation that the iPad Pro will cost more than a regular iPhone. ( iPad Pro has miniLED and iPhone doesn't ).

So far the rumors have not indicated that Apple is cutting corners on components. In fact, the rumors have been quite opposite. 4K resolution microLED screens is not a cost saving move. highly custom optic lens. Again not. New custom SoC not used in other products. etc. etc.

A set of very good points. You’re probably right and I’m just trying to find justification for denial so my wallet doesn’t whimper in fear at night.

 

[MyDogPia]

Apple's widely-rumored AR/VR headset is coming at the end of 2022, with shipments to ramp up in the first quarter of 2023, according to analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

In a research note with TF International Securities, obtained by MacRumors, Kuo said Apple's headset will feature two "3P pancake lenses," which have a folded design that allows light to reflect back and forth between the display and lenses. This design can allow Apple to release a more compact and lightweight headset.

The Information last year shared the above render of Apple's supposed headset based on a "late-stage prototype" that it viewed. The report claimed the headset will have a curved visor with a soft mesh material, swappable headbands, and more.

Earlier today, display industry consultant Ross Young claimed Apple's headset will be equipped with three displays.

Article Link: Kuo: Apple's Headset Coming End of 2022, Will Feature 'Pancake' Lenses

Education might be the big winner from this type of metaverse. There’s a bunch of studies out there that show that 3-D learning for kids and adults has a much more invasive memory application. Meaning when you learn it it stays with you long term. At my employer we actually bought something similar a couple years ago, it’s a big industrial plant, very dangerous. So they have the mechanics and the operators put on the electronic goggles and they shown areas of the plant and they identify all the hazards. Now they remember, they’re cognizant when they go into those areas of things that could go wrong. So maybe after the demise of our education system in this country this will actually help the kids who got the short end of the stick.

 

[deconstruct60]

This feels like an Apple Watch 1 for me. I ended up getting one, but the next year's model was MUCH improved. It's going to take several iterations to get AR/VR usable, and even more iterations still to get it worthwhile/affordable. I highly doubt I will find any initial use-cases compelling enough to justify a purchase. Will be fun to see the progression though!

If Apple starts off with a $2-3K version then pretty likely they would have put lots of efforts into the version 1. It isn't like they are rapidly coming out with a XDR replacement follow up. It is high priced because Apple didn't hold back (and not going to mainstream , for Apple, volumes ).

The rumored follow up is some AR glasses . That isn't going to be likely "way more powerful" than this first one ( that does AR/VR). Glasses that weight substantially less will probably have even tighter performance constraints ( much smaller battery , etc. ) . Decent chance what would get primarily is a "die shrink" of the display SoC used in the AR/VR classes so that it fit the tighter volume and power constraints of glasses. ( or even die shrink and smaller still because not going to have the "VR" mode workload. )

The lower priced glasses model would more likely be on the iterate treadmill the first several iterations. ( some of the same reason the watch was because limited into what can get into the form factor and it is a balancing act . Hard to get enough into the enclosure to make a difference. ). The constraints on the goggles are likely relatively much less. ( strap to hold on the goggles versus just ear loops to hold glasses. )

If there is an "optional" external system horsepower option that also would mean these goggles might be on a longer refresh cycle.

 

[twolf2919]

You are making a distinction between AR and VR that doesn't exist. You can switch back and forth or combine at will already. That is the Passthrough API. This is in use right now with the Quest 2 and Meta has already announced this will be greatly enhanced with Cambria. This is also the purpose of the 8 additional cameras on Apples rumored device. There is no way that this does not become the status quo for computing. Put the demo unit in the Apple store and they will sell. It is efficiency x 10.

Huh? With AR you're seeing the real world through transmissive lenses, optionally augmented with computer generated content. With VR/MR you're seeing a video image that reproduces, and optionally alters, what cameras pick up. This has practical consequences: if I'm wearing AR glasses, I can still see the world once the batteries die - with an Oculus you have to remove your goggles. So, aside from looking like a complete dork running around in the real world wearing a VR headset, you have to worry about batteries running out and your video feed getting interrupted at the most inopportune moment - e.g. while stepping into traffic LOL.

 

[8KYUP]

Huh? With AR you're seeing the real world through transmissive lenses, optionally augmented with computer generated content. With VR/MR you're seeing a video image that reproduces, and optionally alters, what cameras pick up. This has practical consequences: if I'm wearing AR glasses, I can still see the world once the batteries die - with an Oculus you have to remove your goggles. So, aside from looking like a complete dork running around in the real world wearing a VR headset, you have to worry about batteries running out and your video feed getting interrupted at the most inopportune moment - e.g. while stepping into traffic LOL.

Hi Twolf,

You have strayed a long way from your original post. . With a base level Quest II you can already move freely anywhere you want without removing the headset. Web browsing and need a coffee? No way you will take your quest off. Just go get one. That is the definition of AR. Just tap the headset twice for full passthrough. Have you used one? You can use a passthrough background to allow your monitors over your real environment and go to a virtual background with a click. It is super slick. You should check it out. I fully recognize the drawbacks of Facebook/Meta but that doesn't negate what exists. I am confident that Apple will take the current level consumer hardware and take it up many levels an I will be ready first in line when they do.

 

[diamornte]

Why hasn't Macrumors made an article about PS VR2?

 

[dwaite]

For me, I’m a ‘waiter’ on this one. The rumors are really intensifying that this will be Apples next big project outside of tablets and smart phones/Apple Watches, but at what cost and what are the distinct advantages to the consumer over the other ‘VR’s. That’s what I (And assumingly others) want to know specifically.

Apple has a lot of research in both AR and VR, and that means the rumors and speculation are all over the place.

My suspicion is that in the near term we'll have an add-on AR product while Apple does also have longer-term research into standalone VR a la Oculus Quest. I would expect the nearest-term, most likely product to be another wearable like Apple Watch that puts a transparent display in your line of vision, and possibly adds audio capabilities. It won't necessarily do VR at all.

The easiest is a heads-up display - show your new message in the corner of your view, overlay the overhead map and next turn while you drive, etc.

"Mixed" reality would mean that there's a system to map out the environment and project information stereoscopically - think floating 3D arrows while getting directions, or a way more sophisticated version of Pokemon Go.

This is way way harder - you need to use 3D capture to map the environment, calculate a pretty exact position, then draw (potentially partially obscured) objects in 3D space. Apple has this tech, but would likely need to have it run on the glasses themselves in order to get the latency and responsiveness to be acceptable.

It's also worth noting that "mixed" reality will have way less content - we all want immersive experiences, but they are hard to develop and not all (or even most) applications are suited for them.

If Apple is coming out with a mixed reality product, the exciting thing for me will be the first party software for it. Apple does not sell pure hardware platforms - they wouldn't release a pair of AR glasses without them being a compelling purchase out-of-box.

FWIW "pancake" means next to nothing other than 'thin' as a lens term, so this could just as easily be talking about AR as VR. 3P means oblong and tilted. a 3P pancake lens could mean a transparent display protected between two pieces of glass.

 

[turbineseaplane]

Why hasn't Macrumors made an article about PS VR2?

Maybe an early look at the Sony car plans also

 

[newyorksole]

I still have no idea what I would do with it in day to day life.
I am not a gamer.
I can see some specific use cases.
If you repair something or are a surgeon, an overlay could give good info. Maybe even for cooking. all this needs powerful software though.
If you are at a conference you could see the names floating of people you need to meet.
When walking using maps you see your destination or waypoints floating.
But none of the example I can think of are essential for daily use.

bruh… and that’s ok! people didn’t see the value in the iPhone, iPod, iPad or Watch. now look at them.

I know we are all technology’d out, it I guarantee when Apple debuts it it’ll make you want it.

I personally don’t know what I would do with it either though. ?

 

[Prof.]

It will likely be the best. There are a number of ways this could be addressed that will be far superior to glasses/contacts with conventional monitors.

I'm hoping you can enter your Rx and the screen will adjust accordingly.

 

[8KYUP]

Large tableau of spanning monitors probably are not going to work as well in VR. Especially if doing foveal rendering to keep the rendering overhead down. Lots of scanning to multiple windows with substantively different content. Sometimes things off in the eye peripheral vision is useful.

What do you mean? Multiple browsers works great on Quest II right now.

 

[mrr]

How many people are going to want to buy these?

 

[bLackjackj]

iPhones and laptops have millions and thousands of software applications available the moment you buy them. How many applications do you think will be available for an Apple VR headset?

The origional iPhone had 0 3rd part applications. How soon you forget.

It will sell, and sell out. Let's revisit this after release. We all know the usual story. There will be a delay, then shortage, then complaints of no stock. How long have you been a poster for,..Apple can even sell a piece of scrap cloth for $AU29!! ?

 

[MyDogPia]

Apple's widely-rumored AR/VR headset is coming at the end of 2022, with shipments to ramp up in the first quarter of 2023, according to analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

In a research note with TF International Securities, obtained by MacRumors, Kuo said Apple's headset will feature two "3P pancake lenses," which have a folded design that allows light to reflect back and forth between the display and lenses. This design can allow Apple to release a more compact and lightweight headset.

The Information last year shared the above render of Apple's supposed headset based on a "late-stage prototype" that it viewed. The report claimed the headset will have a curved visor with a soft mesh material, swappable headbands, and more.

Earlier today, display industry consultant Ross Young claimed Apple's headset will be equipped with three displays.

Article Link: Kuo: Apple's Headset Coming End of 2022, Will Feature 'Pancake' Lenses

I work at a nuclear power plant. We invested in low end AR or VR goggles for safety training. Can’t remember if they were were AR or VR. They are hooked up to large computers. It seems to work as described. The instructor said is that AR / VR will probably be big in the education space because there’s a ton of studies out there that says using AR / VR burns the memories into your brain. I found this statement to be true whereas the safety training several years later I can still remember. I remember the areas I walked into and the problems in those areas using the goggles.

 

[JBGoode]

I could not be less excited.

You could have ignored this thread and moved on with your life.

I'll not likely buy these but am dying to see what they do.