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iMac only would make sense as the 1st M3 Mac if it were the 27-inch model.

Don’t agree - a 24” iMac with m3 this fall would make perfect sense - especially if it is just the base M3 chip. The new generation of chips debut in the “base” models these days (iMac, MacBook Air, Mac mini)
 
Glad I got my 15” MBA when it first came out. No sense waiting for new tech with no eta. You’ll be waiting forever!
Yeah, I am glad I got mine too. It is really a wonderful machine, does not get warm for the tasks I do (MS Office, Pages, Numbers, Safari, Firefox, YouTube, Netflix, Disney+), I only have 8gb ram but a 512 gb ssd. I am liking it more and more everyday! Can't say the same for Ventura OS though. Still some bugs to iron out...
 
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The Mac Mini is getting an M3 before anything else. Perhaps.
 
I’ve been saying this all along—the writing has been on the wall for a 2024 WWDC M3 release, with next years’ Vision Pro being M2 and the recent 15” MacBook Air M2 release.

It wouldn’t surprise me a bit if Apple press-releases an M2 iMac this fall.

I’d waited so long for the M3, but I felt justified to buy my M2 MacBook Air a couple of months ago.
 
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What would be interesting is if Apple enters 2024 with their phone having higher perf numbers than many of their computer offerings...
 
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Apple is unlikely to release any new MacBook models with the M3 chip this year, according to information shared today by supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

MacBook-Air-15-Inch-Feature-Purple.jpg

"It seems that Apple will not launch new MacBook models (equipped with M3 series processors) before the end of this year," Kuo wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter.

Earlier this year, Bloomberg's Mark Gurman said an Apple event in October of this year could feature the first Macs with the M3 chip. He said Macs that were candidates for the M3 chip included the 13-inch MacBook Air, 13-inch MacBook Pro, and 24-inch iMac. Kuo only ruled out new MacBooks, so there is still potential for a new iMac this year.

The as-yet-unannounced M3 chip is widely expected to be fabricated with TSMC's 3nm process for significant performance and power efficiency improvements compared to the current 5nm-based M2 chip, which debuted in June 2022.

Article Link: Kuo: First MacBooks With M3 Chip Unlikely to Launch This Year
It makes sense to align refresh cycle for MBA 13 and 15 inch .. with new M3 in early spring I guess followed but autumn Pro line M3 refresh.
 
Would Apple roll out M3 iMac BEFORE MBs? I have to think NO.

So would an October Mac event then be about an M2 iMac? Seems like a "NO" too (press release level change vs. an hour or two show for mostly one Mac).

It is the 25th anniversary year of the iMac. Technically we have already passed the date.


Apple is just going ignore it entirely in 2023 or throw a 'party' for it? Tossing the M3 at the iMac would be a great major anniversary 'party' feature. ( while at the same time being relatively 'cheap' since going to make the M3 anyway. Going to make it anyway ... this is just ordering of release to put 'extra sprinkles on top' for the party).

Apple hasn't done anything for the iMac for over two years. Go look at the macrumors's buyers guide


The iMac is DEAD LAST on the list (today). There are today, 862 good reasons to refresh the iMac. By end of October could be in the 900 range of good reasons.

Can do a ton of hand waving and say the Mac Studio was a iMac 27" update so an 'iMac' update. The vast majority of potential 24" iMac users are not going to see it that way. A fair sized fraction of the old school 27" iMac buyers doesn't see it that way either.

There is a pretty good chance that Apple might have originally wanted to do something in the March-August timeframe for the iMac and the logistics just didn't come together.

Apple could toss a M3 into the iMac and it goes comatose for another two years unitl the M5 is ready. That is about the 'update' speed they are going at with this product. It isn't strategically or tactically critical. That is temporiraly gets some glory more than the rest of line up really wouldn't matter much at all over the long term.
 
I like everything you share there... but still struggling imagining them putting on one of their campus productions mostly to show a single Mac or Mac + single iPad. And if they do, suddenly there would be all this angst over a single Mac having M3 and all others on M2... including the ones that sell the highest volume for them... creating the scenario of "wait for M3 versions in a few months" that much harder.

On the flip side, Apple wants to maximize revenue and there is a rhythm of Phone in Sept and Macs in Oct. It's hard to picture them skipping an October event altogether or doing it with a press release. So I think we need some shifts in the rumors (by paid analysts) to bring on some other Macs to join this lone iMac hypothesis for M3.
 
I like everything you share there... but still struggling imagining them putting on one of their campus productions mostly to show a single Mac or Mac + single iPad. And if they do, suddenly there would be all this angst over a single Mac having M3 and all others on M2... including the ones that sell the highest volume for them... creating the scenario of "wait for M3 versions in a few months" that much harder.

The need for a 'dog and pony' show is completely not necessary.

Tell folks to go to apple.com/watch_the_video and play video and read the press release. Done. All the more so, if the outside is basically the same and primarily just an updated logic board with a new M3 on it. (maybe some small tweaks to the screen and/or camera. )

If the iMac has a M3 exclusive for 3-4 months and it can't generate a big sales generating 'buzz' just on that ... then the M3 has major problems. Shouldn't need a 'show' ( ooooh the new iMac is better than sex . It leaps tall buildings in a single bound ... blah blah ). Send out 50 loaners for review after the 'overview' and the market 'buzz' properties should just take care of itself. Jumping two generations so it should crush the intel models and put a big gap with the M1 on a number of fronts. Sell by 'doing' as oppose to reality distortion field 'talking'.

iPad Air with a M2 ... essentially the same thing. No dog and pony show necessary. ( no multiple generation leap though. More affordable than an iPad Pro is the main message. )

Last Q4 Apple didn't have new MBP to sell . They defacto cut prices to move product. Can do the same thing here for the M2 MBA/MBP 13"/Mini product this year. (Mini a bit less so since it is a bit 'younger' ) At the same time build M3 inventory so that can do a high volume launch in Q1 2024 for those. There are several things Apple can do to reduce the 'Osborne effect'. But the fact the M2 models are already over a year old, there is likely some volume drop off anyway. Most of the folks who wanted a M2 MBA bought one. The ones waiting on M3 will likely wait. ( what going to go off and buy AMD/Intel Windows instead? Probably not. ). the iMac is about as non-substitutable a good (for a laptop) as it can be and still be a Mac.


If the A17 in the iPhone 15 Pro models sells well then N3B wafers are throw at that. If it is a volume product pissing contest the Pro models wipe the floor with what ever Mac model you want to throw out there. if the A17 SoCs largely undersell .... well TSMC N3B is so slow/hard to make, Apple can't really respond. ( It takes longer than a quarter to make either one M3 or A17 .. so by the time know want to switch allocation it is already way too late to do anything that quarter. ) . Coming up 'short' in A17 unit availability is way , way , way worse than having too many M3's. ( if the iMac M3 sold 'short' there are about 5 other products it can get tossed into relatively quickly. ( MBA 13"/ (maybe 15") , MBP 13" , Mini , iPad Pro 11/12" ).

The primary 'hand me down' location for the A17 is the plain iPhone 16 which isn't coming until September 2024! Because it is on a fixed-in-stone dogma of every September.

Going heavy on A17 allocation means they can turn it off if has too much and then can just do that much more M3 earlier in 4 months than they thought they could. Meanwhile, they build up M3 inventory because iMac probably is not soaking up all of them. If the iMac miraculously oversells ... that is just more money sooner for Apple . Not really a huge 'problem' to have more money quicker. ( Apple can slide the Mini consumption of M3 back a bit in 2024. )

Your objective seems to be highly focused on just winning the Mac units sales spiking contest the first quarter the M3 is released as opposed the lifecycle.


On the flip side, Apple wants to maximize revenue and there is a rhythm of Phone in Sept and Macs in Oct. It's hard to picture them skipping an October event altogether or doing it with a press release. So I think we need some shifts in the rumors (by paid analysts) to bring on some other Macs to join this lone iMac hypothesis for M3.

If the economy slows down because consumers are getting slightly more cautious with their spending, then more affordable Macs would go a long way to keeping the year-over-year Q4 numbers looking OK. Last Q4 Apple didn't have anything new. Nothing. So even incrementally more iMac sales on top of 'flat' year-over-year for rest of the line up has decent chance of doing just fine. [ It isn't like the general PC market is going to so gang-buster, break out numbers Q4 . There overall sector is drifting so Mac's coasting for a Quarter isn't going to make much of a difference one way or the other. ]


P.S. The sibling rivalry thing is not a necessary thing either. Well the iPhone got a 'dog and pony' show ... the Macs should get one too. Sometimes. New Macs may or may not be ready in October . If not they it is quite alright to skip October. The fixed-in-stone iPhone thing is dual edged. It has lots of downsides also. The leading edge iPhone happens to make enough money to cover the negative aspects up. But it too is starting to wear 'thin' on this contrived date that has no technical requirment/merit in it at all.

There is broad enough number of Macs to ship that Apple should just spread them out and ship new stuff when it is fully ready to go. Shouldn't be waiting on specific fixed dates in time every year. ( if distribute the Macs over the year ... should regularly get something popping out in Q4 of the calendar year. )
 
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Or that form factor, and / or desktops in general, just don't resonate with buyers like they used to.

Difference from 20 or 10 years ago. Yes. Over last 5? Not really. Around WWDC 2023 in June the head of Apple marketing mentioned that the Mac Mini was doing remarkably well in sales.

Lets compare what Apple did over last decade.

2014 ---> long Rip van Winkle nap ---> 2018 ---> long Rip van Windle nap --> 2020 major change to CPU and GPU performance and sales up. 2023 --> added even wider range with M2 Pro and M2. and sales up.

When Apple put in effort they got sales. Not dominate Mac leading units sales, but better then when had a comatose product. Some short term exclusivity isn't going to turn the iMac 24" into the leader in Mac desktop sales. However, is 800+ day old product isn't going to help either. The M1 was far more competitive with Intel/AMD offerings in 2020 than it is going to be with the 2024 offerings in several months. Even the Mini that hit the snooze bar on often over the last couple of decades has an average update cycle of 700 days. They are 100+ days past that. Don't do anything through rest of 2023 and will be up in > 938 day Mac Pro range.


The iMac probably isn't popular enough anymore to get 300-450 day update cycles like it used to. But if going to move it up in to the 500-700 day range then the SoC steps have to get better. Otherwise the product is just in a self imposed death spiral. Make a less and less competitive product and fewer and fewer people buy it.
 
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Good point. M2 Pro would be a worthy update.

The M2 Pro requires a fan, right? Current iMac is fanless. Everyone asking for these changes to the iMac are essentially asking for a different product than the current one, which is a fanless general computing device that is analogous to the MacBook Air.
 
The M2 Pro requires a fan, right? Current iMac is fanless. Everyone asking for these changes to the iMac are essentially asking for a different product than the current one, which is a fanless general computing device that is analogous to the MacBook Air.
Wrong. The iMac 24 does have fans. The base model has one while the others have two. So it’s no big deal for an M3 upgrade.
 
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