Kuo: iPhone Production Will Not Significantly Improve Until Second Quarter of 2020

[PickUrPoison]

it’s not a cold but just a flu. Death percentage is less than 10% of the number of people who caught it. The people who are dying already have health issues. Most people with no health issue will just show signs/symptoms of a normal flu. The influenza flu this 2019-2020 season already reach 4,800 death in the US. The flu season isn’t even over yet. Maybe you should stay indoors just to be safe.

It is not “just a flu”. Influenza is not particularly deadly. In the US this year, the death rate of flu was 1 per 1,000. Compare that to 20 per 1,000 for COVID-19 (the current estimated death rate is 2%).

The flu kills more people because more people get it. If as many people contracted COVID-19 as have contracted the flu so far this year in the US, that 4,800 number would have been 96,000.

Not only is it much deadlier, but it spreads more easily than the flu. That’s why governments are taking such strong measures to contain these outbreaks.

 

[TheShadowKnows!]

Demand didn't go away. It's just on hold for some markets.

The freak out will end sooner or later.

Sorry dude, I am not a doom-and-gloom guy, but my alternate view is that people will shift priorities and tap-down buying non-essentials. And freeze purchasing decisions when facing these life-changing realities.

In this alternate view, "Cash is King."

Apple products will be hit hard because they are all non-essentials. And, Apple's brick-and-mortar stores, like many others, will be empty as people limit social contact, and avoid crowds to the bare minimum.

Suddenly, Tim Cook's just a "Starbuck's coffee a-day" will sound like it is -- irrelevant and trite to most. [And, these temporal, world-wide moods may eventually become permanent after the virus fades away.]

 

[recoil80]

So what if production is delayed? Apple will likely be able to make up iPhone sales in the remainder of the year. It's not like the airline industry or services industry where people who were going on trips during vacation time are going to be able to make up for lost flights or reservations. That time is gone and never returning.

That may be true for iPhone, but accessories like AirPods are great Christmas presents, so are Watches. If they have production delays their holiday quarter won't be as successful as the one they just had.
As for the iPhone let's see, I can wait to upgrade for a few months but if supply is really bad and I can't get the 2020 model in 3-4 months I'm going to wait for the 2021 model that hopefully won't face the same production delays. I don't think it will be that bad, but we'll find out this fall.

 

[danny842003]

That may be true for iPhone, but accessories like AirPods are great Christmas presents, so are Watches. If they have production delays their holiday quarter won't be as successful as the one they just had.
As for the iPhone let's see, I can wait to upgrade for a few months but if supply is really bad and I can't get the 2020 model in 3-4 months I'm going to wait for the 2021 model that hopefully won't face the same production delays. I don't think it will be that bad, but we'll find out this fall.

How long will factories stay closed? If people aren’t getting paid that’s going to have a limit virus or no virus.

 

[TheShadowKnows!]

Danny, you are correct. Certainly no crystal ball, other than a belief that people's buying moods are ephemeral, and subject to radical change when confronted with a new reality, where "Cash is King."

To me, there is no denying that there will be changes in purchasing moods.
My question: "Can this change remain ingrained as permanent?"
Or, "Will the mood fade away back to the "old normal", like you argue, just after a short blip?"

We will have to wait, and see.

 

[Freeangel1]

if that. I don't think people fully understand the impact of this virus? Dow futures are currently up 500 points not due to bad stuff happening with this virus but Wall Street is excited that the central banks around the world are lowering interest rates and infusing money stimulus into their economies

Just like Wall Street. all they care about is money and profits.

People have supposably been healed from this virus only to have it reoccur hours later!!

and they say this virus will always rear its ugly head every winter like the flu or common cold unless they find a vaccine that works

So good luck! I live in the hot desert where their are few people to catch this from. never live in a dense populated area if your worried about virus's. also virus's live longer in the cold weather than extreme hot weather like the desert. if a nuclear war breaks out the HIGH DESERT is the place to be. not the city.
feel sorry for San Francisco that gets hit bad with the virus people wont even afford to live there if they cant show uo to their TECH jobs due to virus fears.

I once asked Steve Jobs for a job with APPLE and sent him my resume
He replied I THINK YOU BETTER LOOK ELSEWHERE . Now with Tim Cooks current decisions with having a HUGE amount of manufacturing done in a communist country like CHINA and putting ARM chips in Macs and making macOS more and more to look and function like IOS. I don't wanna work for APPLE. Tim's future outlook and decisions SCARE ME. Steve Jobs did not

IF only you had concentrated on the Mac and OS X and not blown the Mac off to concentrate your efforts on the iPhone which android already owns 80 percent of the smart phone market.

 

[chris1958]

Demand didn't go away. It's just on hold for some markets.

The freak out will end sooner or later.

As many factories are closed and people are in quarantine, people don't earn money. So they will think twice before buying a expensive new iPhone.

And watch out. The virus is currently spreading outside China. Did you see the news about the care home in US with dozens of cases? And with the VP in charge there is a good chance that it will soon become a really serious problem.

 

[DelayedGratificationGene]

Except it's not just a "common cold virus." How often does the common cold lead to pneumonia & life-threatening respiratory illness? What's amazing is people's willingness to be blind. Outbreaks have happened before in history where millions have died -- why can't they happen again?

The common cold leads to life threatening illness all the time for those with weakened immune systems etc. More than ever the media is desperate for your attention and will sensationalize anything to get it

 

[sofila]

I do think China must do more to ensure iPhone production is not hampered by domestic issues.

The world is basically running on iPhones now. It's vital for the global economy that any issues are jumped on ASAP.

The world is basically running on iPhones now. Game, set, match.

 

[rp2011]

Demand didn't go away. It's just on hold for some markets.

The freak out will end sooner or later.

Demand for goods and services never goes away. It’s always about availability, and ability to pay for it.

 

[Baymowe335]

Anybody paying attention to the facts and aware of what has happened and is happening in China, Iran, and Italy, could not possibly believe what you are saying. It's not the end of the world, but it's not a common cold. Lots of older and vulnerable people will die because of this virus.

Not really in comparison to other illnesses like the flu and pneumonia. This is just another virus that sucks to have around, but it's not anything that is seriously impacted healthy individuals or something that has some inordinate fatality rate.
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As many factories are closed and people are in quarantine, people don't earn money. So they will think twice before buying a expensive new iPhone.

And watch out. The virus is currently spreading outside China. Did you see the news about the care home in US with dozens of cases? And with the VP in charge there is a good chance that it will soon become a really serious problem.

That's also why it's not very worrisome long term. The worst part of this is the panic and irrationality. They won't be able to even try to contain it forever, so they'll just give up and we'll see if it's really a serious problem. The flu is a serious problem and no one even cares anymore. The flu virus continues to evolve too.

You can't shut down cities and factories forever. And China is already proving they are unwilling to do it very long. Good try, might not work and then we move on.
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Sorry dude, I am not a doom-and-gloom guy, but my alternate view is that people will shift priorities and tap-down buying non-essentials. And freeze purchasing decisions when facing these life-changing realities.

In this alternate view, "Cash is King."

Apple products will be hit hard because they are all non-essentials. And, Apple's brick-and-mortar stores, like many others, will be empty as people limit social contact, and avoid crowds to the bare minimum.

Suddenly, Tim Cook's just a "Starbuck's coffee a-day" will sound like it is -- irrelevant and trite to most. [And, these temporal, world-wide moods may eventually become permanent after the virus fades away.]

Again, same answer. This isn't a long term problem. This will be filed under other viruses that are a pain to deal with and eventually will be in a vaccine.

The short term pain of supply chain issues, inability to work, and fear to go out will subside over time. This isn't "no big deal" but it's also not Ebola. It's a respiratory virus that primarily impacts elderly and people with preexisting conditions. When and if it spreads, the death rates will probably decrease further and resistance increases as healthy people fight it off.

 

[Quicksilver867]

Obviously human well-being outweighs the importance of an iPhone delivery schedule. This is a scary global event; hopefully we can manage it better than pandemics of past times.

 

[outskirtsofinfinity]

Two separate WHO teams have visited China. The leader of those teams, Canadian emergency expert Dr. Bruce Aylward, believes significant progress has been made and has suggested the world look to China for help fighting the virus.

No CDC team has visited China. They're probably busy enough fixing the faulty test kits that were sent nationwide and begin actual testing of Americans.

CDC personnel was part of the WHO team (fwiw)....

 

[rgbrock1]

Except it's not just a "common cold virus." How often does the common cold lead to pneumonia & life-threatening respiratory illness? What's amazing is people's willingness to be blind. Outbreaks have happened before in history where millions have died -- why can't they happen again?

The flu in the U.S. this year has, so far, killed 18,000. people. This is much more than what the COVID-19 virus has killed, so far this year, in the entire world.

Keep it in perspective. For now anyway.

 

[AbSoluTc]

The flu in the U.S. this year has, so far, killed 18,000. people. This is much more than what the COVID-19 virus has killed, so far this year, in the entire world.

Keep it in perspective. For now anyway.

That’s over 5 months. Roughly 3,600 people died every month. COVID-19 is 2 months old and sitting at 3,000 people in China alone. Not too far off. COVID-19 is also 20x more lethal than the flu. The problem is the rapid spread/infection of an unknown virus. We don’t know what it’s capable of, how long it will last or it’s lifelong implications on humans/economy if it continues.

I remember when it started and reported deaths were at 10 and 45 infected. The numbers grew rapidly and quickly. Again, that was China alone. Now that it has made it to other countries, you can expect the same numbers if it’s not kept in check, if it can be.

 

[koruki]

The virus has already peaked and on decline in China since early Feb, it's only on the rise in other countries. All my stalled packages from Aliexpress has resumed shipping and many have arrived last week without issue.

 

[Baymowe335]

That’s over 5 months. Roughly 3,600 people died every month. COVID-19 is 2 months old and sitting at 3,000 people in China alone. Not too far off. COVID-19 is also 20x more lethal than the flu. The problem is the rapid spread/infection of an unknown virus. We don’t know what it’s capable of, how long it will last or it’s lifelong implications on humans/economy if it continues.

I remember when it started and reported deaths were at 10 and 45 infected. The numbers grew rapidly and quickly. Again, that was China alone. Now that it has made it to other countries, you can expect the same numbers if it’s not kept in check, if it can be.

I know people keep throwing around 20X more deadly. It’s just not, particularly when and if it spreads to more people. The numbers are way too small to start extrapolating for large numbers.

It’s impacted the elderly and physically compromised. Show me the cases of the young, healthy people dying and we can talk.

That initial death rate will not hold as the denominator grows. One of the foremost doctors in viruses discussed this recently.

 

[AbSoluTc]

The virus has already peaked and on decline in China since early Feb, it's only on the rise in other countries. All my stalled packages from Aliexpress has resumed shipping and many have arrived last week without issue.

Good to know that because you're now getting packages from Aliexpress, we can glean that COVID-19 has peaked! What else can your packages share with us?

 

[rgbrock1]

That’s over 5 months. Roughly 3,600 people died every month. COVID-19 is 2 months old and sitting at 3,000 people in China alone. Not too far off. COVID-19 is also 20x more lethal than the flu. The problem is the rapid spread/infection of an unknown virus. We don’t know what it’s capable of, how long it will last or it’s lifelong implications on humans/economy if it continues.

I remember when it started and reported deaths were at 10 and 45 infected. The numbers grew rapidly and quickly. Again, that was China alone. Now that it has made it to other countries, you can expect the same numbers if it’s not kept in check, if it can be.

If you want to count worldwide numbers, then the flu kills 290,000 - 650,000 people worldwide each year.

Source: https://www.health.com/condition/cold-flu-sinus/how-many-people-die-of-the-flu-every-year