Kuo: mmWave 5G iPhone Shipments Likely to Be Weaker Than Expected in 2020-21

[NMBob]

Are we suggesting that Apple is pursuing a flawed technology?

Well, there's a first time for everything.

 

[PickUrPoison]

My iPhone XR works perfectly fine thank you. Getting a new phone every year has become boring.

You’ve built a tolerance it seems.

You’re either going to have to start buying two iPhones per year, or maybe add iPad or MacBook Pro (probably both, eventually) to your yearly upgrade cycle.

I think it’s called “chasing a high”.

 

[UK-MacAddict]

What networks need to do is actually focus on the quality of the network. 4G is still rubbish and unfinished and they are steamrolling ahead with 5G. Sometimes I’ll have full 4G signal and my phone is acting like it has no data signal and won’t load anything.

Now that 5G is here they need to stop and focus all resources on 5G performance and coverage only for the next 10+ years and nothing else.

I mean literally get 100% 5G coverage running at full speed in every nook and cranny of a country, indoor and outdoor. Only then should they start thinking about the next generation. I.e. If I am in the middle of the Gobi Desert I want full 5G signal running full speed.

 

[1144557]

mmWave is sounding like Sprint's WIMAX back in the day, a DOA technology. I see its application in fixed location devices, like say a hospital etc. But not for mobile devices for the general public moving around. The range is far too short

Id be for spending that $50 elsewhere then in the device and not putting it in. It sounds like a waste of money from everything I have read and coverage is at best spotty and unlikely to change anytime soon

 

[jlc1978]

IMO, the benefits of 5G are over-hyped by the cellular network operators, simply to bring in more cash. Installing more masts, encouraging people to upgrade their hardware, etc.

I think the end game is to become ISPs and replace the traditional wired ISP. Once speeds are fast enough to stream reliably, either a phone acting as a hotspot or a dedicated device could be used instead of fiber/copper. You coulod wind up not needing routers.

Depending on the technology capabilities, they could use a 4G connection to help lower 5G demand or increase the speed; for example if you're streaming a movie, it could start at 5G to fill the buffer and drop to 4G to keep it filled, and jump back up if the buffer empties.

A quality 4G connection can do wonders already.

For a phone or tablet certainly, but if you're putting any heavy load on it it quickly becomes problematic.

mmWave is sounding like Sprint's WIMAX back in the day, a DOA technology. I see its application in fixed location devices, like say a hospital etc. But not for mobile devices for the general public moving around. The range is far too short

I think fixed base usage is the main application, where people typically need higher speeds.

Id be for spending that $50 elsewhere then in the device and not putting it in. It sounds like a waste of money from everything I have read and coverage is at best spotty and unlikely to change anytime soon

Putting it in makes the device more appealling to those who want it while amortizing the costs over many devices; far better than making a special mmWave version.

 

[1144557]

I think fixed base usage is the main application, where people typically need higher speeds.



Putting it in makes the device more appealling to those who want it while amortizing the costs over many devices; far better than making a special mmWave version.

But what percent can actually ever use it? 1/10th of 1% or less? Wacth all of the tech Youtubers testing it. Even on the same block as the tower it didnt always work due to obstructions.

Verizon doubles down on mmWave 5G with new 60-city deployment goal | Light Reading

Verizon plans to double the number of cities where it operates an mmWave 5G network, countering concerns that the operator might back away from the daunting task of building a widespread mmWave 5G offering.

www.lightreading.com

" Due to the physics governing transmissions in such bands, signals in mmWave spectrum can only travel a few thousand feet at the most, and often cannot travel through obstacles like buildings, trees and glass."

It's more like WIFI than cellular data. It will take YEARS to build out full coverage, if that ever even happens other than a few major cities. Imagine how many "mini towers" there must be to overlap a city. Hundreds or thousands. And even then it wont help much indoors

Again, it may be great to replace cable internet connections for high speed since you arent moving around, but I dont see the practicality in general mobile consumer devices.


But then people argue 120hz display is a "niche" for the average consumer, but mmWave should be in there. Which is even more niche. It makes zero sense

 

[lowkey]

And also people don’t want 5G to give them coronavirus and activate the vaccine administered microchip tracking :lol:

 

[Shadows_lord]

I wonder if there is even one person on planet Earth who cares about 5G at this point.

 

[MacStreamer]

I just ran a speed test on my 11 Pro with LTE. 154 down/11 up. What’s the need for 5G with those numbers?

 

[sw1tcher]

if they will have a lower-priced version without the 5G then that will sell more more than the higher-priced 5G version

mainly because 5G isnt widely available yet.

Mainly because 5G doesn't cause coronavirus

 

[macduke]

mmWave sounds like one of those techs that where it works it's great but it is not intended for broad adoption. My interest in 5G is as a replacement for fiber; when it gets to the point that it is reliable, fast enough to handle multiple streams and costs less than fiber I'd switch. If a company such as Tmob could deliver unlimited 5G that fast enough for streaming and allow the phone as an hotspot with no caps then it would make sense to dump fiber and have each person use their phone to stream to an Apple TV or other device when they watch or to provide internet connectivity. No more need for routers, modems, etc.

Of course, at that point, TMob becomes an interesting acquisition for Apple to allow them to be an end to end content delivery company; or for Disney, Google, and others as well. Ultimately, the three major networks would morph back into 3 end to end content providers; albeit with more varied offerings than the old NBC Red/Blue and CBS radio days.

Apple would be akin to NBC, providing content, delivery, and devices; although they may be less likely to run afoul of antitrust given the different competitive landscape.

Yeah it's not great. But I don't think 5G will replace fiber because by the time it does fiber will be even faster and you'll probably want that, lol, and maybe 5G wouldn't be able to handle a house full of 8K high bit depth 60fps HDR video streams. And I doubt we'll see no data caps anytime soon. I also don't think regulators would let some big company buy T-Mobile to effectively wipe out 1/3 of the competition for nationwide wireless internet since it would then only be used for delivering specialized content.

 

[jdclifford]

if they will have a lower-priced version without the 5G then that will sell more more than the higher-priced 5G version

mainly because 5G isnt widely available yet.

Apple can call it the iPhone 11 and iPhone 11 Pro.

 

[jlc1978]

Yeah it's not great. But I don't think 5G will replace fiber because by the time it does fiber will be even faster and you'll probably want that, lol, and maybe 5G wouldn't be able to handle a house full of 8K high bit depth 60fps HDR video streams.

It will be interesting to see how it plays out, but given most users do not use anywhere near the speed fiber can provide today, and 5G's higher theoretical bandwidth, for most home users, 5G could prove to be a viable alternative. That would hold true even as the demand grows, and 5g has a lot more headroom.

I have 1GB fiber but only because it has no cap at that level.

And I doubt we'll see no data caps anytime soon. [\QUOTE]

It will be interesting to see if Tmob keeps unlimited service for 5G.

I also don't think regulators would let some big company buy T-Mobile to effectively wipe out 1/3 of the competition for nationwide wireless internet since it would then only be used for delivering specialized content.
[/QUOTE]

Maybe, maybe not. But it would be an interesting play.

 

[compwiz1202]

For a phone or tablet certainly, but if you're putting any heavy load on it it quickly becomes problematic.

This is one of the main advantages of 5G. You don't necessarily need higher max speed; you need a higher average and more consistency, which is what 5G can do. More users can be on the same connection before it craps out.

 

[Apple_Robert]

I don’t think any of us should be concerned about this news. I don’t see it as anything really important.

 

[iGeek2019]

I remember having a 3G phone in a 4G world. It sucked because 3G sucked... and I couldn't wait to get a 4G phone.

But this time around... I'm not really excited for 5G.

4G is fine for everything I do. Every once in a while I'll be in an area with limited 4G coverage... but I honestly can't remember the last time I saw "No Service" on my phone.

And if you're in an area with poor 4G coverage... you can bet 5G isn't there either.

I hope the phone doesn't constantly blast the 5G radio and kill the battery looking for a tower that's never there. Is there a way to turn off the 5G modem and just rely on 4G/LTE? I think they use entirely different antennas for each... so they should be separate subsystems.

I guess it depends on your carrier but mine (EE in the U.K.) allows me to use 4G with VoLTE toggled on/off or just 3G so I would imagine that could potentially be an option for those who don’t live in a 5G area.

 

[xpxp2002]

I think a lot of people are misunderstanding the purpose of mmWave. Sure, it will be primarily deployed in dense city centers because that's where its intended benefit is realized. mmWave will change the cellular experience at concerts, stadiums, and arenas where thousands of people gather and the local macro cell site collapses under immense demand. The raw throughput capability in bulk is where it actually matters.

The Verizon ads showing 2Gbps to a single handset are fluff and marketing. The real benefit will be when 3,000 phones on one provider network are in a stadium together, and the mmWave antennas absorb gigabits of demand and deliver 30-50 Mbps to each handset reliably without anyone's data experience grinding to a halt.

As far as sub-6 goes, it has the capability to go faster and deliver lower latency once more carriers can turn SA on. Getting it unbound from LTE allows the provider to increase throughput (not as much as these 100+ MHz mmWave channels), but the sub-6 channel timing can be decreased from LTE's limitations under 5G NR, and combined with SA will deliver a moderate improvement. Perhaps not game-changing for many people, but it will support more capacity and deliver a present LTE-like experience and lower latency for more people in the same physical space.

 

[agsystems]

I don’t think any of us should be concerned about this news. I don’t see it as anything really important.

maybe - I can afford to upgrade every year but I no longer do so - even Apple in the earnings call have said the upgrade cycles have 'elongated' from 2 1/2 to close to 4 years now - so for some people this could be 'good' news if the full 5G technology will not be ready this year then, they can safely wait another 1-2 year to upgrade.

 

[jlc1978]

maybe - I can afford to upgrade every year but I no longer do so - even Apple in the earnings call have said the upgrade cycles have 'elongated' from 2 1/2 to close to 4 years now - so for some people this could be 'good' news if the full 5G technology will not be ready this year then, they can safely wait another 1-2 year to upgrade.

I tend to upgrade only when there is a significant speed boost for data connectivity. 3G->4g is a no brainer; I'm waiting to see how 5G fares before jumping in, so probably not til next year. My 8 is still doing fine so I am in no rush.

The only other reason is when Tmob offers a buy 1 get 1 free promo, then I tend to upgrade because then I can upgrade all 4 lines at once and my phones are usually already at least 2 years old.

 

[TantalizedMind]

You’ve built a tolerance it seems.

You’re either going to have to start buying two iPhones per year, or maybe add iPad or MacBook Pro (probably both, eventually) to your yearly upgrade cycle.

I think it’s called “chasing a high”.

My Mac Mini is 10 years old and my phone is just shy of 2 years old.

The only cure would be an Apple computer with translucent plastics like the OG iMac. I miss the 90’s.

 

[DexBell]

We hear this every year, about weaker sales, then apple has a record qtr and record sales. ?

The iPhone 12 is a pitiful update and the pro models won't be available until Dec when every other manufacturer has been on time with their releases. Im about to go get a Note 20 Ultra because Apple cant get their crap together. Sales will definitely be down this year.

 

[PickUrPoison]

The iPhone 12 is a pitiful update and the pro models won't be available until Dec when every other manufacturer has been on time with their releases. Im about to go get a Note 20 Ultra because Apple cant get their crap together. Sales will definitely be down this year.

December? Are you sure? Didn’t Cook say the delay was a few weeks?

Oh well, enjoy the Note.

 

[PickUrPoison]

My Mac Mini is 10 years old and my phone is just shy of 2 years old.

The only cure would be an Apple computer with translucent plastics like the OG iMac. I miss the 90’s.

Mid-2011 mini and iPhone 6s here. And a Bondi Blue 1998 iMac sitting out on a shelf in my garage. Maybe I should try to fire it up lol

 

[CarpalMac]

We hear this every year, about weaker sales, then apple has a record qtr and record sales. ?

It'll be interesting to see what effect (if any) the impact of large numbers of people WFH will make. I hardly use my iphone now other than when exercising, my 2013 MBPr use however has soared. If they made a decent MBP with ports and no gimmick bar, I'd be all over it.

My iPhone on the other-hand has zero chance of being refreshed for the foreseeable.

 

[dampfnudel]

We hear this every year, about weaker sales, then apple has a record qtr and record sales. ?

True, but as we all know, 2020 has been a beast of a year so if sales are weak, it would be for a good reason beyond Apple’s control.