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The new model doesn’t even exist in the wild. So, which one are you ordering now?
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Kuo: New MacBook Pro and iPad Pro Models to Enter Mass Production This Year
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I'm not — I'm going to hold off, I don't want a year-old MBP)
Dunno why this is always so hard for some people on here to accept. There’s always this line of “It’s still an upgrade from what you have now”– entirely true, however the implication is that we should buy something that we will need to upgrade a year earlier, while paying full price.
I say this as someone who might bite the bullet on an M1 16” anyway because I really need to get rid of this butterfly monster.
Likewise. I could see the entire Mac Mini lineup refreshed with the introduction of the M2 Pro chip; put the regular M2 in the models replacing the M1 Minis, and the M2 Pro in the model replacing that last Intel Mini.
I loved my Mac Studio, but my family is selling off everything and spending next year traveling around Europe. Not really practical to lug around a desktop and 27" monitor to 11 different countries. Now I'm back on my 2013 MBP, and it's beyond painfully slow.
I don't care about the fact that the current 14" MBP is almost a year old because it's still perfectly powerful for my needs. What I do care about is how long Apple will support these M1 chips with MacOS updates. My 2013 MBP is still on Catalina, and a lot of my software can't be updated anymore because of that. If waiting a few months buys me another year of an OS update, I'll wait.
Bravo, you win the prize for the most original and funny comment. Now you can go and celebrate! Well done!
The new MacBook Pro models will come with optional wheels for $500.
Wait…what?
Me too. I'm hoping that the high-end Mini will slot in the pricing line-up well underneath the base Studio. Frankly, the Studio seems like a pretty good deal given its capabilities. However, I don't really need quite that much machine, just something more beefy than a base Mx machine.
Annual M upgrades for the next few years I think.
Apple to start increasing their market share with laptops given how great the M is for portable devices.
New devices = more sales. Keeps them fresh in the minds of consumers. Allows Apple to market them easier if they are competitive.
Apple to start increasing their market share with laptops given how great the M is for portable devices.
New devices = more sales. Keeps them fresh in the minds of consumers. Allows Apple to market them easier if they are competitive.
So if Apple ships the M2 Pro/Max this fall on 5nm - what devices out there are going to use 3nm in the first half of 2023? Rumor is Intel gave up their 3nm production at TSMC for 2023. Apple M3 probably won’t ship until second half of 2023.
So who is using 3nm in Jan 2023? My gut says it has to be Apple…..which makes me think either the M2 Pro/Max aren’t coming until next year or the rumored production of TSMC 3nm is off and it is really ready now.
So who is using 3nm in Jan 2023? My gut says it has to be Apple…..which makes me think either the M2 Pro/Max aren’t coming until next year or the rumored production of TSMC 3nm is off and it is really ready now.
What do we guess the prices of the Macbook Pro with Pro/Max to be ? Roughly $500 dollars more or only $250 more ?
Why would they go up?
The M2 Air got a price increase because of the redesign. The M2 Pro 13” was the same price as the M1.
I am not convinced there will be a price hike for a M2 Pro/Max MBP with no redesign. Yes there is inflation, but the US dollar is also up, which effectively reduces manufacturing costs. I guess Apple could bump up prices just because people are expecting them bump up prices, so hey why not - more profit! But again, I am not convinced there will be any price hike.
Unless you're maxing out your M1 Pro/Max, there is likely no reason to update to M2 Pro/Max regardless of the process node it is on.
The most likely first candidates for 3nm in my opinion will be the A17 and the M3 family in mid-to-late 2023 (with volume production starting a few months prior).
Likely something in the N5 "family" of nodes but highly likely not strictly N5 (5nm). The A15 and M2 already at N5P. So it is minimally some incremental modification of the baseline N5. Last TSMC Quarterly call they mentions they have had accomplished the ramp of N4P. N4P is not a major node shift (and use the same baseline design rules) . It is about 6% and some small increments on power savings (or traded for some turbo clock uplift). They are not huge, but it also would be odd for Apple to skip it in favor of well over a year old N5P. Even more so if targeting some late November- mid December release time.
There are other options than N3 or nothing. Grouping the A16 , M2 Pro , and UlraFusion-less M2 Max on N4P would make sense. Mainly just clawing back space that the "M2" generation that bloating out the N5P implementations with. The Pro and Max (by itself in a one die configuration) are not maxed out of space, so bloating out on N5P is a less risky move. Essentially would be a more refined M1 generation version that was a bit more expensive to make.
The double Max done with N5P ( with more GPU and E cores added) could be an issue. Something around the Max size on N3 would work better , but also perhaps is just only used in multiple die packages. N3 there is not so much to add large number of cores or crank the clocks far higher but to make the multiple die packages easier to make than the Ultra.
Annual as in Every October or Every March ? Probably not. May get a sequence where somewhere in 2022 a M2 model shows up. Somewhere in 2023 a M3 model shows up. Somewhere in 2024 a M4 model shows up. But the whole line up top to bottom every year and Macs on 'fixed in stone' release months? Probably not.
Probably not either. If Apple throws inflation adjusted prices on here they will trade higher margins for low, but steady growth.
At the 16-17" end of the laptop market they have substantive competition. Zen4 and RDNA3 are looking good from AMD and Intel Gen13 also does better if allocate more power consumption inside the laptop.
At the lower end of the laptop market vendors will to sell at lower margins ( especially if they don't pass long inflationary price adjustments) will likely hold onto most of their current share.
LOL. Quantitively not even close to true. Vast majority of the Windows PC vendors Apple competes with have 2-3x models released per year that Apple has. It can't be too slow an update cycle , but this notion that more is automagically financially better. Little backs that up.
Apple doing something that really is a noticeable improvement will help. If that takes 14-15 months they Apple should go that path. The fixed in stone dates for the iPhone happen to work. But it is largely just one iPhone (with different sized screens and camera mix). It has no where near the range the Mac line up has. It has been over two years since the announcement and Apple still has NOT covered the upper end Mini and the Mac Pro. The converge complexity is not even close. Even if Apple does do a M2 Pro Mini it is still likely going to backslide on max RAM capacity two years later.
Intel , AMD , and Qualcomm really moving at a faster than 14-16 month rate either if look at when easily available in high volume for the category. There are multiple dog and pony shows per year, but again like the relatively super broad Windows PC system vendors , the catalog of SOC/GPU products is also much bigger.
The Apple watch SoC may be just a very minor refresh this year. The AR/VR system is overheating . The Mac Pro is appears to be sliding into 2023. The cellular modem is a complete no show. There are a couple of signs that Apple is stretched a bit thin having expanded their SoC catalog this wide. Expecting them to keep the same pace when they had half the number of SoCs to do is probably not well grounded. iPad Pro A-X updates were not every year. Apple doesn't have a track record for the whole portfolio going every 12 months even when they have a lot less work to do.
Wafer costs went up. SoC costs more , you pay more. Apple isn't going to 'eat' that,. They also aren't going to 'eat' inflation increases for transportation , overhead , etc.
The "redesign" effort (itself) didn't drive the price increase on the M2 Air. The selection of more expensive components are the main driver there.
I am not sure how relevant Intel/AMD and Apple Silicon are going to be to each other considering the former eventually cannot run macOS and the latter eventually cannot run (x86) Windows.
So people will make their architecture decisions based on the OS, not the processor, and if you want/need both macOS and Windows support, you will have dedicated machines for each platform.
It's all pretty interesting as the regular Mac silicon update cycle starts to form - Air as Base, Mini/24 iMac as Pro, and MBP's as Pro/Max is a logical way to unfold things, and then the Studio/iMac as Max/Ultra's and whatever else comes from there.
In my eyes, the only reason Apple would want to release a new 14/16 inch Macbook Pro in November 2022, is if they want said laptops to co-inside with the release of MacOS Ventura.
Otherwise, if it is only a chip upgrade then I think they will hold off until the 3nm chips are ready to go. Just my two cents...
Otherwise, if it is only a chip upgrade then I think they will hold off until the 3nm chips are ready to go. Just my two cents...
Yes, everything has gone up. So has the US dollar though, which helps offset Apples manufacturing costs on those now more expensive wafers. Meanwhile, Apple has already raised prices in much of the world and they have a very large built-in profit margin already, so it is entirely possible they wait for something bigger like 3nm or OLED panels to raise the prices.
We will see. My money is still on no price hike for the M2 Pro/Max MBPs. They didn’t increase the price on the 13” M2 MBP after all.
Apple gimped/kneecapped the M2 MBP 13". They went to just one Flash NAND module that give you less the bandwidth. If you wanted to actually get back level with the original bandwidth, the price did go up. At about $2K and up ... gimping the system isn't going to play as well with folk in that price bracket. Lots of folks buying the bottom configuration MBP 13" are just happy to have a laptop that is pretty fast.
If prices of some components go up , one tool Apple has is to give less of some other component. They are still not taking the hit to their own margins. [ p.s. The BTO options have extra slop in the margins. There is where can get some slack given by Apple. But the baseline foundation price .... that they probably won't ]
I am a little worried about the NAND chips on the M2 Pro/Max being gimped as well. The 512GB base model used to have 4 chips on the M1 Pro/Max right? Surely that is going to be two chips now, unless Apple bumps up the base model storage levels.
That doesn't make much sense in the context of Apple taking more market share. If the laptops are not taking it from Windows systems where are they taking the share from.... mac Desktops , iPads ?
The probably with this position is that even Apple doesn't believe it. For many years Apple ran a "mac vs PC" commercial. Now they don't directly talk about it but it often implied. When Apple says they have better Privacy it is not Mac more private than the iPhone or iPad. They are talking about those other folks with broadly substitutable goods. No, Apple doesn't have completely transparently swappable substitutes, but they do complete.
Second, at least once a year Apple will mention in their quarterly call about how the iPhone/Mac are doing that they are getting XX% of switchers. If these goods being switched from are not competitors why call it a 'switch'. Those folks are switching substitutable goods. And Apple basically relies on that for growth. There have been years where the overall PC market units number are down and Apple is slightly up or flat. Most of that comes from rearranging the deck chairs on the same boat. Apple peeled out more folks from Windows than Windows peeled out from Apple. Even more apparent when look at USA vs Worldwide market share. Once loop in numbers where Macs are relatively less affordable their market share drops.
Appel could grow share if they were bring loads of "new" folks to the worldwide PC market. They wouldn't have to lean so heavily on getting "swapper" if they could get folks who were new. That is another stat where Apple does some tap dancing. They have "bought my first computer" stats. but likely if you cut out "bought my new computer with student loan, got it as a gift for school , etc. " that not really seeing substantial system unit growth in areas where Windows doesn't also have units. Parts , repairability , etc all matter more where there is no local certified repair shop primarily because the regional median income is relatively low.
As Jobs said decades ago the PC wars are over. Apple's main objective is to prune off profitable customers and dump the ones that are not (for Apple). That is a move where they build fewer , more focused products. The net impact of that is that their market share growth potential is relatively limited. Steady independent single digit growth (i.e. gap from overall PC market ) pulling off relatively small number of switches at higher than industry profits. Minus Windows and the top 4 PC system vendors shooting themselves in the foot multiple years in a row, there is probably not a huge share win for Apple. With all the more antitrust scrutiny going around ; nor do they really want that.
It is higher than that. If folks can get the apps they are comfortable with then Mac/Windows are more substitutable goods. The actual operating system (not the Finder / Window / GUI manager ) that is not a rigid barrier for most.
The other fallacy is that Windows is 'suck' solely with x86_64 and it isn't. What matters to folks is can they run their apps. That's why Apple has Rosetta. Also why Microsoft has a basic equivalent on Windows on Arm. If Adobe , Microsoft , Google , Blackmagic , and Avid woke up tomorrow and decided that macOS was a waste of time and left, then macOS would be in trouble. Not having the major league apps is part of what keeps Linux in the minor leagues in desktop OS percentage.