Launch day orders will catch up quickly...

Discussion in 'Apple Watch' started by commad, May 18, 2015.

  1. commad macrumors member

    Joined:
    Mar 11, 2011
    #1
    I see a lot of posts of people saying that because orders are just now going out for those who ordered within the first 15-30 minutes, that it will be a very long time before they get to orders several hours after launch. I think a lot of the 4/10 orders will actually catch up quickly. A large concentration of orders were most likely done within the first 30 minutes of launch (the die-hard people). Another larger percentage would be those who woke up at a normal time or just ordered sometime on 4/10 or days after. It's easy to forget sometimes that MOST people don't get up in the middle of the night to order gadgets. I'm guessing that it is small percentage of orders that took place after the first 30 minutes and before normal wake up time on 4/10. That is why you see similar shipping estimates for watches ordered hours apart during that period. I don't see Apple having any trouble meeting any of their delivery estimate promises.

    I ordered mine at 5:22am ET, originally "June", updated to May 29-June 11. I am very excited to receive my watch too, but it's just a watch, I think I will survive another couple of weeks without it.
     
  2. bashmagic macrumors regular

    Joined:
    Apr 24, 2015
    #2
    I think you are kidding yourself. I'll eat my words if it turns out I'm wrong, but frankly I'd put money on us May 29th-June 11th people not seeing any change for at least another week, if not two - particularly for the suckers who ordered Space Gray Sport watches.
     
  3. commad thread starter macrumors member

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    Mar 11, 2011
    #3
    A week from now is May 25. 2 weeks from now is June 1st. Either way, would still be well within or before estimates. My point was that many people seem to think that because Apple hasn't made it out of the first hour of orders, that these estimates aren't realistic. I disagree.
     
  4. bashmagic macrumors regular

    Joined:
    Apr 24, 2015
    #4
    I don't think many of us will see our orders until at least, if not after, the 29th. Getting peoples' hopes up is just annoying.
     
  5. commad thread starter macrumors member

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    Mar 11, 2011
    #5
    "Getting people's hopes up"? I said that I think that Apple will be able to meet their shipping estimates. So... if you are estimated between May 29-June 11... I THINK that you will definitely get your watch between May 29-June 11 or sooner. The people getting so frustrated and "their hopes up" are the ones who are expecting something more than is promised.
     
  6. bashmagic macrumors regular

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    Apr 24, 2015
    #6
    Yet previously:

    Pretty mixed message if you ask me.
     
  7. commad thread starter macrumors member

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    Mar 11, 2011
    #7
    Maybe if you looked at the whole context of what I was saying. Did you even read my original post? You didn't see the line "I don't see Apple having any trouble meeting any of their delivery estimate promises"... I wrote that at the end of it to sum up my point.

    I think it's a very simple idea, but let me try to explain it again...

    People have been saying that because the first 30 minutes of orders have taken soooo long... that it means that the next 30 minutes of orders after that will take just as long. Based on that thinking, then it would seem like Apple would never catch up. But I don't believe that is a smart way to think about it. The point being that most likely there were a lot more orders within the first 30 minutes then there were in the next few hours after that. So therefore, after we get through that first chunk of orders, things will most likely move at a faster pace than they have been, concerning the launch day orders. And so Apple will be able to "catch up quickly" and be able to deliver as promised. That's exactly what I said, no mixed messages.

    I'm not even saying anything controversial here, it's just a simple point.
     
  8. bashmagic macrumors regular

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    Apr 24, 2015
    #8
    Well, guess we'll see who is right, won't we?
     
  9. commad thread starter macrumors member

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    Mar 11, 2011
    #9
    Sure, i'm not trying to be "right", and wasn't looking for an argument, honestly.

    And if people start receiving their orders AFTER the promised shipping estimates, I will be the first to admit I was wrong... I just have a hard time believing that Apple is going to add that kind of blunder on top of an already perceived blunder of a launch.
     
  10. shox2k2 macrumors 6502

    Joined:
    Jun 18, 2010
    Location:
    Wichita, KS
    #10
    Last Monday they were still on launch day orders for the 38 sg. By Friday they were shipping from apr 24.

    That first day is loaded then it's spread out.
     
  11. AppleWes macrumors 6502

    AppleWes

    Joined:
    Oct 9, 2013
    #11
    I agree and hope you're right!

    It seems like there's a 'chunk' of dates missing mid-June. My 4/11 order updated to 6/22-6/29 along with a large number of others who even ordered weeks after mine.

    Plus a lot of brand new orders say "5-7 weeks" (42mm), so they must have manufacturing bumped up or not as many orders rushing in.
     
  12. Eightyone macrumors regular

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2015
    #12
    On 4/27, I returned my 4/24 38 white AWS to the Apple Store. I wanted SS, instead. I ordered on 4/27, a 38 SS ML, due in 4-6 weeks with a shipping estimate of 5/29-6/11; I received said watch on 5/8 (less than 2 weeks after ordering - was blown away to receive two very different AW [the sport was a 4/10 preorder] orders within the 4/24-5/8 preorder window!).

    Anything can happen.
     
  13. AppleWes macrumors 6502

    AppleWes

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    Oct 9, 2013
    #13
    A lot of 38mm seem to be shipping really fast, 42mm have longer ship times.
     
  14. bashmagic macrumors regular

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    Apr 24, 2015
    #14
    So, 1 day later, as I completely, 100% expected, there is still absolutely no movement for most of us after the 17min timeframe for SG BSB orders on 4/10.

    Conclusion? I really, really, really doubt that the launch day orders will catch up quickly.
     
  15. Tyler23 macrumors 603

    Tyler23

    Joined:
    Dec 2, 2010
    Location:
    Atlanta, GA
    #15
    That's the most popular model. For that model, I'm not surprised you're seeing the results that you are.

    Other, less popular models are seeing better movement.
     
  16. commad thread starter macrumors member

    Joined:
    Mar 11, 2011
    #16
    haha. Well, at least you gave it 1 whole day to catch up. When people start receiving their watches AFTER their promised dates, I would love to hear about it. You really did miss the point of my original comments.
     

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