No guarantee is right. But no guarantee that it won't and no guarantee it won't. I think more people are going to be willing to jailbreak now. And I absolutely agree about apple and the AppStore until breaking becomes fairly mainstream and it affects apples revenue, then we may see an unlocked AppStore.
Why do you think more people are willing to try and research jailbreaking when there is already an infamous team doing it?
If anything people are leaving the scene. Geohot hasn't even tried to jb the iPhone 4, he's already moved on.
The Appstore will always be regulated. There is no place for cydia apps on the appstore.