I think Apple will upgrade the 14/16 Pros first so they can upgrade the 13/15 Airs together after enough time has passed from the 15" Air's launch. Had Apple released the 15" Air alongside the M2 13" Air, they wouldn't have had this issue.
Got a tip for us?
Let us know
Become a MacRumors Supporter for $50/year with no ads, ability to filter front page stories, and private forums.
Looks like we may see an M3 pro/max powered MBP this year.
- Thread starter A1423
- Start date
- Sort by reaction score
As far as I understand, the issues TSMC had with N3 should be fixed by now and the yields pretty decent. But it is an expensive node to buy/use.
It's interesting to compare different predictions. Per Gurman, we'll see M3 something this year. On the other hand, there's a quote in this article (https://www.anandtech.com/show/18970/tsmc-3nm-chips-for-smartphones-and-hpcs-coming-this-year):
"For those who are more cost sensitive, there is N3E, which can 'only' use up to 19 EUV layers and does not use EUV double patterning. Good news is that TSMC expects to commence mass production on this node to Q4 2023."
Does that mean N3B is used for both A17 and M3? Weren't yields too low to do both? At least we're weeks away from the A17... Hoping those 3000+SC/7000+MC Geekbench scores are accurate.
"For those who are more cost sensitive, there is N3E, which can 'only' use up to 19 EUV layers and does not use EUV double patterning. Good news is that TSMC expects to commence mass production on this node to Q4 2023."
Does that mean N3B is used for both A17 and M3? Weren't yields too low to do both? At least we're weeks away from the A17... Hoping those 3000+SC/7000+MC Geekbench scores are accurate.
Given the volumes Apple needs I’m not convinced that “mass production in Q4” will cut it. There have been reports that TSMC has been producing 3nm chips for Apple for some time now, probably to satisfy that initial demand spike.
I believe N3B production started in Q4 2022. Hopefully that has given Apple time to stockpile enough chips to avoid some of the shortages we saw with the 14 Pro and Pro Max last holiday season. The only wild card there is whether TSMC improved upon those early yields that were reported back in February/March.
Given that the 14/16" Models were updated in January 2023 and the 13" Air in July 2022, the latter is due for an upgrade first.
It all depends on whether Apple wants to upgrade the 13/15 at the same time. If they do then the MBPs will get upgraded first because more time has elapsed since they got the M2. If they don't then its the two 13" laptops, then the MBPs, and then the 15" Air.
If Apple keeps the same design for the MBAs and unveils the M3 Pro/Max before the M3, what could Apple focus on in unveiling the new MBAs?
Nothing, really. It could even be a press release refresh in that case (although I assume it'd be a low-key WWDC reveal like this year's models).
Apple can scale up manufacturing from smallest to largest dies.
So, AX -> MX -> MX Pro -> MX Max -> MX Ultra.
Thats how they scaled their manufacturing, so far.
I find it more plausible that Apple would update the 15" MBA along with the 13" before the MBPs than a low profile presentation of the MBA.
I used to think this now I’m not so sure. If not for the 15” Air this year’s update would be even more low-key as it was simply using the same chip. If the M3 will actually be ready in October, I really don’t see Apple updating the Airs after ~4 months (although 6 months between iPad 3 and 4 was a thing).
I still see the 13” MBP and 24” iMac as the flagship devices for M3.
Would Apple be more likely to upgrade both MBAs this year if sales of the 15" MBAs are poor?
No.
The whole point of releasing MBA 15 this year with M2 is that both MBA laptops wouldn't have to be updated for some time.
It directly addresses your claim that the MBP will be the first to get an M3 part. For both the M1 and M2, Apple released products using the base model of the SoC first, followed by Pro/Max/Ultra variants sometime later in the cycle. Since Apple sells more of the products using the base versions (MBA, 13" Pro, iPad Pro), it would not make sense to sacrifice production of the base M3 up front in order to rush the Max/Pro/Ultra variants to market.
Apple has painted themself into a corner regarding the upgrade path. The only logical product that could get the M3 this autumn without messing the lineup completely up, is the iMac. However logic of Apple releases is really difficult to understand. Seem that releases are nearly random.
Not necessarily random. They clearly updated the Airs for back to school promotions. The Pros easy in the year seemed like they were delayed from an October release last year (though not sure how much stock I put into that). The 13" MBP, iMac, and mini are all good candidates for an M3 update in October.
For the casual observer, M2 Air 15 is out of sync with Air 13. MBP 13 seem to be redundant and should be removed. M2 Mini started shipping in January 2023 so it is too soon to update. The M2 Pro mini and M3 mini will likely be on par and Apple will not release M3 Pro before MBP. It's a mess alright caused by unexpected bottlenecks. "Unexpected" can by an observer be seen as an random event. The only product that could be be upgraded without raising anger or confusion in the Apple pond is the iMac and possibly the iPad Pro, but the latter is less likely according to rumours.
Seems to me to be obvious that Apple will update the 13" MBP, both Airs and the iMac with M3 first. I imagine this is planned for October/November but might slip into January/February (as happened for the M2Pro/Max MBPs where the promo videos were created in the Autumn, even though the product didn't launch until the new year).
The cheaper M3 devices will have to receive the upgrade first as Apple starts with the base chip, then ups that to the Pro chips a couple months later and the Max chips which are essentially 2 Pro chips. Releasing updated 14" and 16" Macs first thus seems unlikely. It would mean that they already had the M3 chip but held it back for a while. They could do that, but why would they not use them if Apple had base M3 chips ready to put into devices?
Perhaps if they had M3 and M3 Pro+Max ready at the same time, then they could focus production on the M3 Pro+Max, but from what I gathered that's not how Apple does it.
Perhaps if they had M3 and M3 Pro+Max ready at the same time, then they could focus production on the M3 Pro+Max, but from what I gathered that's not how Apple does it.
The Max is not two Pro chips grafted together. Rather, the Max has double the GPU and support for up to 96GB RAM (vs. 32 GB max for the Pro). Here are some die shots of the two SoCs...
M2 Pro:
M2 Max:
Pro and Max are interesting because they are two physically separate dies that share the same design. In this sense @okkibs is not wrong to speak of Pro+Max. They share the same layout, Pro simply leaves out a piece.
(The details are much more complicated of course, how they do it is described in the series of patents titled “FULL DIE AND PARTIAL DIE TAPE OUTS FROM COMMON DESIGN”)
Last edited:
Despite the 13" Pro seemingly being redundant, I believe it's still the second most popular MacBook after the 13" Air. I think that's the only reason Apple hasn't discontinued it yet.