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M1 to M2 took 19 months
- Thread starter sam_dean
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This assumes that the next MacBook Pro and Studio will have a version of the M2 in it.
I have been thinking that maybe the M2, which is basically a modified M1, might be reserved for entry-level Macs such as MBA, 13" MBP, then at some point the MM and iMac. Maybe the MM and/or iMac may end up skipping the M2.
The next Prosumer line of Macs might end up getting the M3 with the 3-nanometer technology. So the M3 would be for the next generation of entry-level Macs, the M3 Pro and M3 Max for the 14" and 16" MBP, M3 Max and Ultra for the Studio.
The 27" iMac may have a M3 Pro for the base model, with a M3 Max as the second tier. Maybe with an Ultra as a BTO option.
The AS Mac Pro, not sure. Maybe an M3 Ultra for the base model, with the next higher tier of M-chip for the second tier or BTO. Maybe it will be called the M3 Mac Pro Max Pro Ultra...Air. Who knows?
The M4 might end up being what I think the M2 is, a modified M3 for entry-level Macs. The M5 will start the process over again.
This would give the Pro machines a significant upgrade from on generation to the next, while allowing Apple reuse modified older design chips for entry-level Macs that are as performance-focused.
As for time frame, not sure. The Mac Pro was supposed to be out already, as it is now passed the two years.
I have been thinking that maybe the M2, which is basically a modified M1, might be reserved for entry-level Macs such as MBA, 13" MBP, then at some point the MM and iMac. Maybe the MM and/or iMac may end up skipping the M2.
The next Prosumer line of Macs might end up getting the M3 with the 3-nanometer technology. So the M3 would be for the next generation of entry-level Macs, the M3 Pro and M3 Max for the 14" and 16" MBP, M3 Max and Ultra for the Studio.
The 27" iMac may have a M3 Pro for the base model, with a M3 Max as the second tier. Maybe with an Ultra as a BTO option.
The AS Mac Pro, not sure. Maybe an M3 Ultra for the base model, with the next higher tier of M-chip for the second tier or BTO. Maybe it will be called the M3 Mac Pro Max Pro Ultra...Air. Who knows?
The M4 might end up being what I think the M2 is, a modified M3 for entry-level Macs. The M5 will start the process over again.
This would give the Pro machines a significant upgrade from on generation to the next, while allowing Apple reuse modified older design chips for entry-level Macs that are as performance-focused.
As for time frame, not sure. The Mac Pro was supposed to be out already, as it is now passed the two years.
Given the fact that there are plausible M2 Max leaks in the Geekbench database this seems unlikely.
My theory could very well be wrong, but there have also been fake "leaked" Macs in Geekbench before.
And IIRC, there are some inconsistencies with the alleged M2 Max Geekbench leaks that isn't exactly adding up.
I personally hope that the leaked M2 Max scores are fake, because the CPU performance gain seems weak to me. I might be wrong, but it seems worse than the post Intel Ivy Bridge Macs, especially since it looks like the M-chips are going to be 1.5+ years cycle.
That said, even with the leaked GB scores, the alleged M2 Max still has decent CPU performance compared to what Intel is offering. Maybe there will be massive GPU performance gains that are not apparent in the leaked GB scores, that could make up for the lack of CPU performance gains.
They don’t have to be “fake” to be invalid - nobody knows whether they came from a production model due to be released next month or a lash-up prototype with all sorts of hardware and software issues (maybe without a full complement of cores), or even if the benchmarks were run systematically (nothing else running in the background or sucking RAM). It’s an interesting clue as to what might be coming but I really wouldn’t read much into the figures. We’ll find out with hindsight…
It’s fairly safe to predict that single core performance on a 5nm M2 Max/Pro is going to be similar to the M2 - and that the overall % performance gains from M1 Max to M2 Max might not be so significant as M1 to M2 since some of the M2 improvements (LPDDR 5, extra hardware codecs) were already present in the M1 Pro/Max. It really depends on how many extra cores they can cram in.
I can’t see a 5nm M2 Pro/Max being a must-have upgrade for a M1 Pro/Max MBP or Studio - the slow roll-out could be due to delays in 3nm. It could even be that the M2 was a one-off for the MacBook Air, which was overdue an update (and still stuck on the old case design).
I can see the Studio not seeing a refresh until next fall, to be sure, but the MBPs, I think it will be closer to March or April. My twisted line of thinking is that since the new MBP is a spec update, why wait until late spring.