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M2 -> M3 Upgrade?

I

iMatt.

macrumors 6502
Original poster
Sep 1, 2010
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Cupertino
Just ordered an M2 MBA (16GB, 512GB) with an ETA of June 8-12. What are the chances of this being replaced/‘upgraded’ to an M3, should that be announced on Monday?

I recall seeing some people getting free upgrades depending on when they placed orders prior, although that may have been from Intel to M1.
 
I think the chances of seeing an M3 version next week are exceptionally low, but even if I'm wrong you can always cancel and reorder (or return if it's too late to cancel). Not sure about any free upgrade situation.
 
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iMatt. said:
I recall seeing some people getting free upgrades depending on when they placed orders prior
Click to expand...
That reminds me of the time I ordered my first Macbook (2007), and it was mysteriously "lost" by the shipping company. The next day (or something) Apple revised it with better graphics, among other things, and I got the new one instead.
 
Hi everybody,

hope, the new MBA will come with a M3 Cpu, as i am considering buying one soon.

Best regards,
Schnitzel
 
While announced soon, I wouldn't expect a M3 until the fall. Just a feeling - and given past experience with MacBooks. Ditto the 15".

There comes a point where these announcements produce 'Squirrel!' moments - hardware or software that distract from the fact they aren't all that much better (and sometimes worse) that the predecessor. For example, noted speed issues that are actually better in a M1 Air than the M2. And, as yet, I know of no commonly used software that a M2 struggles to use, and that benefit from a M3.

If we believe reports, M2s are hardly flying out the door at present. Creating a new product nobody wants - for no apparent reason and most certainly at more cost to the consumer - hardly seems like a decision that will endear Apple to its stockholders.

There's always something 'better' you could have bought, and buyer's regret will take place.
 
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Chances are basically zero.

If the MBA were up for a refresh, we'd start seeing stock being depleted at Apple Stores and BTO orders being pushed out beyond 2 weeks. Right now, everything is status quo.
 
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You still have 15 (technically) days to return after receiving it. And practically, the Apple Store will let most customers return within 30 days.
 
Congrats! Nice spec. on your order! I have the base M2 Air and it's amazingly capable - for all but the most demanding of tasks it performs on par with my M1Pro 14".

Like others have said, we will know by Monday, which is well within your return period.
 
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From the rumors I have heard the M3 will not arrive until the end of the year or early next year. All the 3nm chips are being reserved for the iPhone 15.

Of course these are just rumors and who knows.

As others have said you can return if a model is released soon.

If having the latest chipset is important to you then depending on how much you need a new Mac you may want to wait. An M3 MBA should be released later this year or early next. If you can't wait that long then just enjoy the M2 you are getting. It is an incredible laptop as it is.
 
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Technerd108 said:
From the rumors I have heard the M3 will not arrive until the end of the year or early next year. All the 3nm chips are being reserved for the iPhone 15.
Click to expand...

TSMC has stated countless times N3E won't enter volume production until H2'23. Any 3nm chips being made now on are using the most expensive N3B. Those only make sense for iPhone 15 Pro.
 
JPack said:
TSMC has stated countless times N3E won't enter volume production until H2'23. Any 3nm chips being made now on are using the most expensive N3B. Those only make sense for iPhone 15 Pro.
Click to expand...
Then I guess I am right? But who is to say that by H3-4 23 there will be enough supply of N3E to make M series chips? It is highly possible that we will see an M3 Air by November to December if not very early 2024 and pre-order in December?

Obviously Apple is going to prioritize iPhone because sales should be high for a model with 3nm chip and USB C and a better telephoto lens. However, it doesn't mean they can't also produce enough chips to produce M3 at the end of the year. They can produce both at the same time.

Since M2 series Macs are not selling well as Apple would like a way to increase sales would be to introduce an M3 MBA around the end of the year which also happens to be the holidays where people will want to buy gifts. It would make sense for them to release an M3 MBA in November for delivery in December.

Of course we don't know what TSMC and Apple are going to actually do no matter what TSMC says publicly. If they are going to sell M2 15" MBA in summer then they can keep sales going with Macs later in the year with M3.
 
Hi everybody,

since we are not going to see an M3 Cpu in the upcoming MBA 15, do you think a M2 can handle Logic Pro ? If not, I am going for a MBP with a M2 Max.

Best regards,
Schnitzel
 
iMatt. said:
Just ordered an M2 MBA (16GB, 512GB) with an ETA of June 8-12. What are the chances of this being replaced/‘upgraded’ to an M3, should that be announced on Monday?

I recall seeing some people getting free upgrades depending on when they placed orders prior, although that may have been from Intel to M1.
Click to expand...
The jump from M2 to M3 is surely not going to be anywhere even close to as dramatic as the jump from Intel to M1.

Personally, I'd just stick with the M2 unless there's some other headline feature of an M3 Air that really grabbed me. Processor speed is nice, but honestly at this point all current Macs are pretty damn fast for day to day use, and insanely power efficient compared to the Intel days.
 
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JPack said:
Chances are basically zero.

If the MBA were up for a refresh, we'd start seeing stock being depleted at Apple Stores and BTO orders being pushed out beyond 2 weeks. Right now, everything is status quo.
Click to expand...

The new MacBook Air 15” is said to be announced today at wwdc.
 
iMatt. said:
Just ordered an M2 MBA (16GB, 512GB) with an ETA of June 8-12. What are the chances of this being replaced/‘upgraded’ to an M3, should that be announced on Monday?

I recall seeing some people getting free upgrades depending on when they placed orders prior, although that may have been from Intel to M1.
Click to expand...
never in the history of apple has mac got a silicon shrunk before apple's cash cow iphone. will history be changed today? lets see!
 
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ilikewhey said:
never in the history of apple has mac got a silicon shrunk before apple's cash cow iphone. will history be changed today? lets see!
Click to expand...
This is why.

2023-Q1-category-pie-chart.png


All the MR & Bloomberg rumors about 3nm M3 coming out in 2023 is just clickbait.

Know the chip & product refresh cadence of the Mac, iPhone, iPad, etc and you know within a quarter when it will be announced.

Although unpopular product lines get delayed by years. See 2019 Mac Pro & 2020 iMac 27" as examples.
 
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ilikewhey said:
lol yep, apple will not jeopardize their cash cow iphone from having the latest and greatest first for a measly 7% profit volume from mac. and since we all know iphone comes out in sept, the chance of apple m3 being 3nm is slim to none.
Click to expand...

At the earliest the 3nm M3 will be out by November like the 5nm M1 in 2020.

iPhones have an inventory time of hours/days? A Mac Pro would have an inventory time of weeks or even months?

Products left on the shelf is money that depreciates.

Places on MR and reddit have a very vocal Mac Pro user base but Apple knows the volume of such a niche product.

It is like the iPhone mini not getting a 14 version. The 12 and 13 sold poorly.

So poorly that anyone who bought and loved it are compelled to say they bought on and loved it. 🤣
🤣🤣

I issued a Mini to one employee as she had small hands and was upgrading from the original iPhone SE and she's asking for a regular sized iPhone as she wasn't happy with it.
 
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Longplays said:
I issued a Mini to one employee as she had small hands and was upgrading from the original iPhone SE and she's asking for a regular sized iPhone as she wasn't happy with it.
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I'm curious, why wasn't she happy? Happy to use the OG SE but not the Mini that is basically the same size but all screen. I have large hands and have 6 months ago, gone exactly this upgrade. After 6 yrs of SE am loving the 13 Mini.
 
Alpha Centauri said:
I'm curious, why wasn't she happy? Happy to use the OG SE but not the Mini that is basically the same size but all screen. I have large hands and have 6 months ago, gone exactly this upgrade. After 6 yrs of SE am loving the 13 Mini.
Click to expand...
She's small-ish at around 5'2" with small-ish hands.

She found the smallness of the mini was a disadvantage and was not commensurate in feature compared to a iPhone 14.

IIRC the mini had a slightly larger screen size even when accounting for the length & width as compared to the 2016 iPhone SE.

She's a CPA and not into tech. So that might be a factor in her use case.

I prefer the Pro Max for my big hands, longest battery life and screen large enough for someone with slightly bad eyesight.

We have 1 user who wants an iPhone as large as an iPad mini so he'd consolidate into 1 device.
 
I try (with varying degress of success) to focus on just buying the device I need, from what is currently available, when I need it, rather than second-guessing how good the next generation chip/device will be.

But I do bear in mind Apple's release schedule, no point buying a new iPhone in August etc.

Unless you have deeper pockets than me (quite possible!) it's unrealistic to be constantly on the latest-and-greatest kit, so you have to accept that whatever you buy will be superseded, most likely within a year. This is easier said than done, especially when/if the next iteration has some impressive spec-bump! So you just have to be happy that your device, be it MacBook Pro, iPad, watch, whatever, does the job you need it to do.

I am expecting the M3 to appear either Q4 2023 or later - unless they're about to announce the M3 SuperDuper for the Mac Pro...??
 
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Deedlez said:
I try (with varying degress of success) to focus on just buying the device I need, from what is currently available, when I need it, rather than second-guessing how good the next generation chip/device will be.

But I do bear in mind Apple's release schedule, no point buying a new iPhone in August etc.

Unless you have deeper pockets than me (quite possible!) it's unrealistic to be constantly on the latest-and-greatest kit, so you have to accept that whatever you buy will be superseded, most likely within a year. This is easier said than done, especially when/if the next iteration has some impressive spec-bump! So you just have to be happy that your device, be it MacBook Pro, iPad, watch, whatever, does the job you need it to do.

I am expecting the M3 to appear either Q4 2023 or later - unless they're about to announce the M3 SuperDuper for the Mac Pro...??
Click to expand...
the m3 will have some impressive spec-bump, the die shrink alone would give about 20-30% more battery life. i won't be surprised if apple release a 2nd gen 15inch mba within 9 months if the 15inch mba is released today.
 
M1 to M2 took 19.5 months.

I get upgrading from M1 to M2 if you want the refreshed industrial design of the Macbook Air. That's a key reason why I want to upgrade my 2012 iMac, that was the first Intel model with the last Intel redesign, to a 2021 iMac with the 1st Apple Silicon redesign.

It stands out as "I'm Apple Silicon" but to upgrade to every new refresh without intent to "hand me down" the older Mac to family or extended family is somewhat luxurious.

You suffer depreciation and the person buying will enjoy a slightly used laptop that is no older than 20 months.

Apple expects their Macs to be replaced every 3 years while Intel point to every 5-6 years.

I on the other hand prefer every decade.

If I had a family of 4 I'd upgrade every refresh. Hand down the previous Mac to family who will keep it up to its 6.5th year.

Family of 6? Then upgrade every refresh and hand down to family members who will use it for a decade becomes more possible.

With that arrangement I'd buy an external display like a Dell U2723QE so it can be used comfortably for a dozen years or longer.
 
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