If the M2 chip premieres next week, will the next round of higher-end machines use M2 Pro and M2 Max, instead of M1 versions? None of the rumors indicate that, but none of the rumors indicated M2 was coming before fall 2022, either, until very recently.
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M2 Pro / Max ?
- Thread starter LonestarOne
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I don't see Apple going backwards so my vote is YES. I bet "Peek Performance" means Mac Pro or sometime to replace it.
The rumours have been all over the place - and given the current supply issues it's quite likely that Apple's inscrutable yet logical plans are being disrupted by the availability of displays and suchlike. All we know is that there was a considerable delay between the launch of M1 machines and the launch of M1 Pro/Max machines. While M2 Pro/Max chips will doubtless follow M1 Pro/Max it sounds sensible to get the regular M2 rolling reliably out of the foundries before trying to scale it up to M2 Pro/Max.
Also, it is a safe bet that the M1 Pro/Max will still be significantly more powerful than the regular M2, with double the number of CPU and GPU cores, plus extra I/O and video acceleration, more than making up for the individual M2 cores being slightly faster and maybe gaining an extra core or so.
The "flagship" Mac is probably the 16" MacBook Pro - and updating that to "M2 Pro/Max" less than 6 months after the M1 Pro/Max was released would be rather surprising (and annoy a lot of customers), and, equally, putting a M2 Pro into an iMac or Mini so it had a "better" processor than the current 14/16" MacBook Pro would be surprising.
...but then this is more about brand naming than the viability of any of those hypothetical products. I suspect that the big practical aspect of the M2 will be power consumption and battery life, with the "24 hour battery life" crown within reach.
So releasing (say) an M1 Pro Mini or iMac after a M2 Air, or (as one rumour suggested) even a M2 13" MBP (which could be a "Hail Mary" pass at 24 hour battery life) might be a branding fail - but Apple have already made that almost inevitable by choosing dumb names for the M1/M1 Pro/M1 Max.
(So, apart from the problem that M2 processors were always likely to launch when M1 Pro/Max were still mid-cycle, you have a 13" MacBook Pro that doesn't have a M1 Pro processor, and a forthcoming Mac Pro that will need more CPU and GPU cores than the M1 Max... That's what happens if you copy the iPhone processor numbering pattern, which only works because a new flagship iPhone with the latest generation processor comes out like clockwork every September).
And "Peek" could mean VR/AR glasses or it could mean that we're only going to get a preview of the high-end Macs due to launch later in the year.
...which would make sense. We're all having great fun trying to guess Apple's plans, but for anybody trying to plan future projects and equipment budgets, knowing that there's likely to be a major upheaval in the high-end Mac range but not having some information as to what, must be intolerable when there are nice, stable Windows and Linux ecosystems to switch to.
I don't think we will see the Mac Pro at all now. For sure they are saving that for WWDC as the highlight of the show. I also believe the 27" iMac Pro will show up there for the first time, with the latter being available "Now!" and the former in summer/fall.
Hold your horses. We still have not gotten the following in M1 yet.
High end Mac Mini
High end iMac
Mac Pro
Do you think Apple will release M2 before the M1 rollout is fully done?
I'd agree if it weren't for that "Peek (sic) Performance" teaser - which would fit well with a preview of the Mac Pro and any high-end iMac or Mini versions.
Note that the last three "Pro" desktops - the Trashcan, the iMac Pro and the 2019 Mac Pro were all "previewed" at WWDC 4-5 months before they were actually available to order.
The Mac Pro and any direct replacement for the old iMac Pro will need a new SoC package (the rumoured x2 or x4 M1 Max chips, unless Apple have something new up their sleeve) which could have developer implications.
Why should Apple hold up refreshes? Apple could wait, but there’s no reason they should.
There’s an argument to be made that Apple should demonstrate it is committed to regular refresh cycles, especially on their biggest sellers. There’s also an argument that Apple doesn’t have to rollout the entire lineup on M1, but can switch to M2 partway through the cycle if things are ready. But the truth is we don’t know what Apple’s plan is.
There’s really three ways Apple can go:
- Rollout M1 everywhere, then start refreshing. This does mean some models will sit for 2 years without a refresh, in particular, Apple’s biggest sellers.
- Start the M2 refresh now, and let it roll up the line following the M1. This makes a lot of sense to me as it’s approaching 18 months without a refresh on the first M1 machines, and the 14/16” MBP can be refreshed next spring under this pattern without giving up the crown of “fastest Apple laptop”.
- Start the M2 refresh now, and start using M2 on any new SoCs (likely the Mac Pro and iMac Pro). The M1 Pro/Max could still be used in many of the models still to be switched over fully like the Mac Mini and iMac, so I wouldn’t expect an M2 Pro/Max this quickly, and it’s not clear yet if any new M1 SoCs are even in the pipe if the Jade 2C/4C rumors are true.
Who is to say those products were even meant to have M1 in them?
'Next round' ? For the. Mini upper end ("Mini Pro") , iMac 27 ("iMac Pro") , and Mac Pro there hasn't even been a first round. So why would those get "Second round" processors when haven't even finished first round?
The 1 , 2, 3 , etc. ( M1 , M2 , M3 ) comes from what is inside the chip package; not what is on the outside. "The Mac Pro costs more than a MBP 13" two port M2 model so therefore it should get a M2 XYZ package". No. If what is inside is "1st generation" tech, then it should get a '1'.
Things ship when they are ready. AMD's laptop CPU+GPU packages for Zen 3 didn't ship at the same time as their Epyc (high end) Zen 3 class packages did. Same with Intel. Gen 12 core i series isn't shipping at the same time as Xeon SP Gen 4 although both as on same microarchitectural family. There is no reason why it all has to ship in some "Big Bang" distribution across the whole board.
With a broad enough family of chip die implementations Apple will more likely not rolling them all out at the same time. Apple also has watch , iphone , and upcoming AR/VR chips to do. Modems . etc. The bigger the pile of stuff the work on, then the more likely will have longer phased introductions.
That said, there is no guarantee there will be a. M2 Pro/Max. Apple may skip the even iterations on the very substantially bigger die implementations. They could just move between major fab process shrinks and skip the intermediate tweaks and optimizations. M1 Pro/Max ->. M3 Pro/Max -> M5 Pro/Max. While the much higher volume "plain" M1/M2/M3/M4 got targeted tweaks in between. [ basically the strategy that Apple used on 10X -> 12X -> M1 for iPad Pro. With the MBA , M1 , iMac24 , low end MBP 13" added to pile volume up high enough for perhaps close to yearly iterations and the new relatively low volume version is the. Pro/Max/Chiplet-variants-of-Max. ]
Since on more of a moore's law 18 month cycle periodically the. Mn Max may come out before the 'matching' Mn package. (e.g., M3 Max before. M3 and then M5 before M5 Max ) . If the cadence is different it will not always be the same.
The rumors was that there were four. dies and/or packages that Apple was working on: Jade , Jade-chip , Jade2c , and Jade4c. It would be very unusual for the same codename to be used for different microarchitectural implementations. Jade is M1 Max die. Jade-chop is M1 Pro die. Jade2C and Jade4C haven't made appearance yet but likely would have a "M1" prefix like the rest of the family.
Is there a follow on to Jade / M1 Max coming? Likely yes. Does it have to release with the M2 ? No. In fact, if the M2 shares fab process wafers with the A16 then even more unlikely. The relatively much bigger dies consume more wafers and if wafer constrained due to the initial Fall iPhone demand bubble then really won't be extra production slop to soak up with a "Max" or bigger die.
If the M2 is sharing fab wafer capacity with the A15 then the plan all along could have been M2 in the Spring '22. Apple could be in a "use it or loose it" situation with reserved wafer starts. They need to start doing some now so doing a limited product run . The M-series probably won't get exactly 12 month cadence. What the iPhone does is funding by a much, much bigger revenue flow on a single implementation ( all the iphones and any iPad to soak up slop capacity products just use the same exact die and package. )
I think this event will answer our questions.
On one hand I was thinking, why not just throw the innards of the MBP Pro/Max into an iMac and call that a day?
Apple could do this yesterday if they wanted to. However because they have not, lends me to thinking that the higher end iMacs would be something like the 2C/4C rumours or a straight jump to M2.
I do feel (as much as it displeases me) that certain Macs will be on MX and others will be on MX+1. The lower end being one generation of M-series higher than the higher end. I think that will make purchasing a lot more tricky.
Do you want more single core performance? Then get the newer generation low end Mac.
Do you want (possibly) more multicore performance and more RAM? Then go the previous generation high end Mac.
Very good question and I am slowly tending to think as many others are. Is M1 done and the still Intel high end Macs, moving straight to M2? You might be right there.
There are supply constraints on the M1 Max chips and miniLED panels. If the 27” iMac uses both of these, it’s possible Apple was forced to delay.
I think they have to skip a generation (or ramp up update cycles considerably). Right now, if you assume the current 2-year update cycle, they’re going to be a full generation behind this fall. 2 years later they will be 2 generations behind, etc. etc.
So at some point they either have to move to annual updates, or skip generations.
Not unless Apple has become much better at keeping secrets than they have been in the recent past.
That’s according to the same rumormongers who said M2 was not coming before fall 2022. If they were wrong about that, they could be wrong about Jade, too.
I'm not sure about this logic myself. The M1 iMac was spring after the M1 Mini/MBP/Air trio. The MBP to my knowledge sells better than the iMac. So waiting for supplies to become unconstrained before rolling out the M1 Max in the iMac and Mini would make sense to me. It also gives them time to refresh the chassis for the Mini and larger iMac like they have with the 24" iMac.
Especially since it doesn't seem super likely that the Mini will be using 2C/4C, but it would be a great little M1 Max box.
Intel has generally had the same conundrum between their Core and Xeon lines. It's not a deal breaker, IMO, especially during the transition period. I would expect gaps to shrink once Apple is not solving a bunch of engineering problems at once.
There is a difference between when Gurman (Bloomberg) says. " some unnamed source at Apple says Jade , blah blah" and when Gurman speculates/guesses/suspects Apple is "doing M2 in the Fall".
Pointing at when the latter fails doesn't materially impact the first because really two different sources there. One is someone who is inside Apple and the other is an outsider ( at best inferencing off of a collection of leaks).
That's Gurman has pointed at iPad Pro on M2 in Fall and significantly redesigned MBA M2 in Fall. Neither of those really block a M2 being stuff inside of the same old 2-4 year old chassis of the MBP 13". It isn't the sexier option to drive newsletter buzz on , but possible.
And frankly there could be no M2 products this spring. Post March 8th should have a clearer picture. If there are M2 then pretty good chance that it won't be the same bundled cluster as last time (Mini , MBA , and MBP 13"). Decoupled from industrial design drama and/or mini-LED logistics drama there could be just one M2 product this Spring. Or not.
Being 'wrong' on Jade is kind of hard because two of the four codenames have already shipped. Claiming that part is 'wrong' is huge stretch. The M1 Pro is a chopped down variant of the M1 Max. There are vestigial features of the Jade2C in the Max product (interrupt handling for multiple dies and a driver that covers multiple dies) . There is evidence for the Jade2C also. So that is three out of four with highly creditable real evidence. Odds are not good that the Jade4C is some kind of "error" .
[ Jade4C may have run into technical issues and may not see light of day, but probably was on the planned roll out. ]
Apple has done "sneak peeks" before. ( 2013 , 2017 , and 2019 ) . There could be a "gonna do" component to this as opposed to a "hit the buy button now on visual tool XYZ".
For example, one M2 product in line up and what to talk about the "M1 Max Duo" and "M1 Quattro" so that some folks don't spin around in a tizzy about how M2 can come out before the bigger M1 packages. They would have wrapped up the M1 series reveals can rest of the year could be on other M2 reveals ( "peek" into the rest of the year also. MBP 13" M2 would be a good 'peek' at what the performance of a M2 Mini , iMac 24" , or MBA would do. ).
This ignores the logistical problems Apple has had with mini-LEDs. If Apple has tightly coupled the iMac 27" solely to mini-LEDS then that could be the large choke point on the large iMac's delay.
The rumors indicating that Apple wants to call this the "iMac Pro" further point toward this having a base SoC configuration of a M1 Pro.
The 27" panel and the path taken on the iMac 24" is suggestive that Apple is going to be apply some amount of "thinning" to the iMac 27". That would likely negate any 2C/4C option. The legacy iMac Pro enclosure could cover a 2C thermals, but pretty good chance Apple has tossed some of that capacity away.
The M2 isn't going to beat the M1 Max , let alone a 2C/4C variants , on most performance metrics.
Ticky how? The system prices are likely very diferent. The 2C/4C variants will likely be radically different in price than a M2. When most folks look at the price tags of the systems these SoCs are placed in ... they will mostly sort themselves out quickly.
The folks trying to buy "bragging rights" and "poser rights" ... those folks might get twisted, but they are not going to be most of the folks who are doing the buying.
The higher end M-series SoCs will have adjectives after the common prefix. The low end M-series won't have any adjectives . So again... not that hard at all to tell apart.
iPHone 12 Pro Max and iPhone 13 ... is there really tons of folks who as deeply confused about those two products? If not M2 and M1 Max are fundamentally different naming mechanisms how?
Errr, that has basically been the Intel differentiation for last 4-9 years. Vast "new" confusion? Again the huge pricing gaps pretty neatly segments most of the marketplace relatively quickly.
But why should the 14/16 MBPs be next in line for updates? They relatively just got updates. Meanwhile "half" the desktop line up is still on Intel. (e.g., the upper end Mini is a 2018 device. It is creeping up on being 4 years old. ) Isn't that suppose to finish in two years? Several Macs haven't even gotten to "round 1" of the transition to M-series.
Spring of 2023 those could be upgraded to a M3-Pro/Max chips if available. Doesn't have to be M2. Apple isn't selling those SoCs "cheaper" so they could be used to 'pipe clean' the. N3 fab process for the A17.
It feels more "tidy" if Apple were to launch M2, M3, M4... etc after all hardware have received the previous Pro / Max versions.
As nerds and tech enthusiasts we can understand and explain why M2 is "not as good" as M1 Pro / Max. And that M3 is similar to M1 Pro Max in some ways, and better than M2 Pro Max.... etc.
But at the Apple Store, or consumers online trying to figure out what's what when seeing a less expensive M2 MacBook, more expensive M1 Pro / Max MacBook Pro, somewhat less expensive M2 iMac, more expensive iMac Pro M1 Pro / iMac, Mac mini M1, mac Mini M1 Pro / Max, Mac mini M2... etc (or whatever mixed versions of M1 / M1 Pro / Max, M2 are available at a certain time).. there will be confusion.
M2 is newer than M1. That sounds logical to all. So, one needs to explain that M1 Pro is better than M2.
I just hope in 2022 Apple finalises M1 Macs.
Then in 2023, introduce M2 and apply same Pro / Max configs later.
etc.
But, lol... what do I know
As nerds and tech enthusiasts we can understand and explain why M2 is "not as good" as M1 Pro / Max. And that M3 is similar to M1 Pro Max in some ways, and better than M2 Pro Max.... etc.
But at the Apple Store, or consumers online trying to figure out what's what when seeing a less expensive M2 MacBook, more expensive M1 Pro / Max MacBook Pro, somewhat less expensive M2 iMac, more expensive iMac Pro M1 Pro / iMac, Mac mini M1, mac Mini M1 Pro / Max, Mac mini M2... etc (or whatever mixed versions of M1 / M1 Pro / Max, M2 are available at a certain time).. there will be confusion.
M2 is newer than M1. That sounds logical to all. So, one needs to explain that M1 Pro is better than M2.
I just hope in 2022 Apple finalises M1 Macs.
Then in 2023, introduce M2 and apply same Pro / Max configs later.
etc.
But, lol... what do I know
I would have mentioned the other computers with M1P/M1X chips, but there aren't any. No one knows if Apple is going to switch to releasing the M2/M2P/M2X simultaneously, but if they do then that obviously changes things.