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M3 15-inch MacBook Air launching in October – and this proves it

It's not because the M3 MBA appears in developer logs that it means it will launch soon. Look at this article from April 2022 citing all the M2 Macs being tested, the source being developer logs. The M2 MBA was launched 2 months after this article, but for the Mac Pro, it was more than 14 months after this article.

Now, I can see Apple releasing an updated M3 MBA in spring 2024, or even maybe in early 2024. But I don't believe in the slightest that an updated MBA will launch this fall.

So not only this doesn't prove anything, I think you are misleading people by citing the 9to5Mac report. This report clearly states an M3 Mac mini as a possible October launch, not the MBA.
 
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Apple isn’t gonna mess up iPhone release on new nodes, which will be heavily constrained, manufacturing M3 Macs next quarter isn’t smart. Apple guidance hints at next year launch for M3 macs and M3 iPad Pro.
 
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Considering that the 15-inch model was released in June, I don't think the next model will come as early as October. While average consumer might not care about the processor model as long as it’s fast and new enough, I can certainly see some customers who bought M2 version feel that Apple has pulled a nasty trick, and rightly so. Only 4 months between models? I can’t believe Apple would do that.
 
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Intel 7nm 14th gen release this Oct. To be honest, M2 CPU performance is even behind U series (Intel low end line). Apple is ahead on power efficient. 14th gen Intel will shrink the gap by a lot as Intel node usually performs better at the same nm. Apple need release M3 to answer Intel 14th gen. That's the reality. Apple cannot pass the holiday season to Windows.
 
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chongsen said:
Intel 7nm 14th gen release this Oct. To be honest, M2 CPU performance is even behind U series (Intel low end line). Apple is ahead on power efficient. 14th gen Intel will shrink the gap by a lot as Intel node usually performs better at the same nm. Apple need release M3 to answer Intel 14th gen. That's the reality. Apple cannot pass the holiday season to Windows.
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I don't think Apple "answers" anything related to Intel. macOS and Windows are so dramatically different that they don't compete in this way.

Apple isn't as worried about raw power because very few of their users require insane amounts of power. Even many videographers use MacBook Pros for their editing now and it works quite well. It's better for Apple to focus on power efficiency because they sell way more (portable) MacBooks than Mac Minis, Mac Pros, etc.
 
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chongsen said:
Intel 7nm 14th gen release this Oct. To be honest, M2 CPU performance is even behind U series (Intel low end line). Apple is ahead on power efficient. 14th gen Intel will shrink the gap by a lot as Intel node usually performs better at the same nm. Apple need release M3 to answer Intel 14th gen. That's the reality. Apple cannot pass the holiday season to Windows.
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What benchmarks are you looking at? Apple still ahead in battery efficiency and GPU.
 
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I bought the 13" M2 MBA when it came out and have been struggling with the small screen size. A 15" M3 Pro MBA would be extremely tempting. If it was priced between the 14" and 15" MBP I think that'd make a lot of sense. Portability is a premium worth paying for.
 
Never happen. On a general consumer mainstream device, Apple will wait as long as possible to put new tech in...this is how they make money on cheaper devices.
 
andy89 said:
I bought the 13" M2 MBA when it came out and have been struggling with the small screen size. A 15" M3 Pro MBA would be extremely tempting. If it was priced between the 14" and 15" MBP I think that'd make a lot of sense. Portability is a premium worth paying for.
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They aren't making an M3 Pro Air.
 
Was watching Luke Miani's DRKMODE weekly show last evening - he buckled and is now not expecting a fall Mac event, saying 2024 will bring about the M3, iPhone Ultra, etc.

FWIW I've felt like M3 really is a 2024 WWDC thing, after VisionPro is released with M2.

I do expect a spec bump this fall for iMac - probably will be a press release, and equipped with M2.
 
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SilvioInfante said:
1. That's an iPad.
2. That's 7 months. Not 3.
3. That was done because they were overhauling the entire lineup to Lightning connector at the same time, a once in a decade kind of transition.

If that's what you call "precedent" for what you're suggesting Apple will do...then I don't know what to tell you.

Apple wouldn't have released the 15" MBA when they did if they had any intention of refreshing it a mere 3 months later. Apple simply is not this aggressive with Mac updates no matter how much some people pretend they could be.
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Agree.

For many years, Apple has consistently been following the strategy of giving the lowest end Macs the new SoC upgrade first and then slowly upgrading the rest of the macs over the following months(sometimes years), in order of value/$ and price range, ending with the highest end Macs.

Simple way to maximize sales of the lowest value/$ products before you launch the higher end options.

So if M3 does drop in 2023, this is how it’ll play out:

  1. Q4 2023: 13” Air and 13” Pro get M3 first, possibly also see M3 24” iMac.
  2. Q1-Q2 2024: MacBooks Pro, Mac mini and Mac mini Pro get M3
  3. Q3-Q4 2024: Mac Pro, Mac Studio and 15” Air get M3. Might see the rumored 27”-32” high-end iMac with M3 too.
*I don’t think M3 is dropping in 2023. I’m just saying 15” Air won’t get M3 if M3 does happen in 2023.

No way Apple is caninalizing sales of a 3 month old product.

15” Air will see no M3 version for at least 9 months.
 
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Everything Apple does anymore is all about incremental progress.

I'm sure that M3 will be disappointing to a lot of folks, much in the way M2 was compared to the groundbreaking M1.

M1 *was* the big revolution; Mx is now only about evolution (increments).
 
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In summary, it doesn't make sense, especially from the business perspective. With the slow churning of laptop sales (Mac sales down 31% yoy), releasing an update in rapid fire wouldn't be a reasonable decision.
 
phillytim said:
Everything Apple does anymore is all about incremental progress.

I'm sure that M3 will be disappointing to a lot of folks, much in the way M2 was compared to the groundbreaking M1.

M1 *was* the big revolution; Mx is now only about evolution (increments).
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There is no way a minor upgrade such as M2 is repeated with M3.
It will be on another tier even if it doesn't turn out to be as great as everybody expects it to.
But still it won't be a "must" upgrade for most people already running on M1, except for performance-intensive workflows and those that didn't get enough RAM or SSD.
For the most part, I expect it to target users running later Intels and unsupported hardware.
 
tcatsninfan said:
Developer logs are not an accurate representation of release timelines. There's no way they would update the 15" so soon after launch, that makes no sense at all. Imagine how pissed people would be if they bought what's supposed to be a "new" MacBook that became outdated 3 months later.
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But Apple did already the same with Macs in 2019: Intel versions by May and Nov drop of M1.
 
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ctjack said:
But Apple did already the same with Macs in 2019: Intel versions by May and Nov drop of M1.
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Not the same. Apple isnt moving to intel. Their lineup and transition is pretty much set, not to mention, they are not going to mess with iphone moving to new nodes, with limited yields. Macc and ipad will follow later, given the newer nodes.
 
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