M3 MacBook Air - does everyone really think it’s around the corner?

[James Godfrey]

I don’t know why but there seems to be a huge belief on these forums and on YouTube etc… that an M3 13” MacBook Air is due out in October.

However, I really don’t believe this is going to happen… and here’s why…

Lately, Apple seem to be leaning into their budget options remaining on older silicon in order to cut costs, this is likely due to the fact that Apple’s silicon is now so powerful there is really no need to whack the latest and greatest into their budget friendly line up.

You can see evidence of this with the current iPhone line up A15 in standard iPhones and A16 being in the pros, and the iPad Air still retaining M1 vs the iPad Pro which now rocks M2.

If Apple had been planning to upgrade the 13” Air to M3 as soon as October, I do think that they wouldn’t have launched the 15” Air at WWDC, and refreshed the 13” at the same time as launching the 15” both having M3 inside.

I think Apple’s decision to launch the 15” Air with M2 at this point is extremely telling of their future intentions. And although the 13” Air is due to get refreshed at this point I have a feeling we not actually see that model refresh for a good year or so yet and it will have a very long life cycle.

I am also in the thinking that it’s quite likely the 13” Pro will get M3 in October and the Air’s will eventually get M3 probably mid-end of 2024 shortly before M4 is due to launch.

I know Gurman has come out with the rumour and many people take what he says as gospel but we have to remember that he also said earlier this year that the 15” Air was getting M3 in mid-late 2023, which is quite clearly incorrect.

Also imagine the MacBook Air line up… you would have 13” MacBook Air with M1 (old body), 13” MacBook Air M3 and 15” MacBook Air M2… that is just extremely odd, and completely unnecessary for their budget line up…

I believe what is like is that Apple are going to use the 13” MBP as a sort of go between product between the MacBook Air’s and the high end MacBook Pro’s. It wouldn’t surprise me if they redesign it, give it M3, maybe promotion but still LCD, a couple of additional ports over the Air, and ditch the Touch Bar… and quite possibly just call it MacBook, priced at $1499 which sits the price point right between the 15” Air and 14” Pro. There has to be reason why they have kept that model around… and it’s the only MacBook that is still getting new chips but still hasn’t been redesigned for apple silicon…

What’s everyone else’s thoughts… do you think Apple will launch an m3 13” Air and have it alongside the 15” M2 for at least 9 months, or do you think that’s it’s likely the budget friendly mac options (Air line up) are going to get the same treatment of the iPad and iPhone line ups and straggle behind in terms of the silicon?

 

[bill-p]

I don’t know why but there seems to be a huge belief on these forums and on YouTube etc… that an M3 13” MacBook Air is due out in October.

It's because:

1. M3 is long overdue even now. It should have come out earlier this year. It didn't.
2. It'll be almost 1.5 years since the 13" M2 Air is revealed... by October. If Apple doesn't even upgrade it by then, when will they even do so?
3. Recent rumbles around TSMC building up their Arizona plant just for Apple gave people hopes. Only to dash all that hope... yesterday:

Your next MacBook could be in short supply thanks to US skills shortage

TSMC can't find enough qualified US workers to get its new US plant operational in time for 2024

www.techradar.com

So all of these factors combined means... people will be lucky to even get 3nm iPhones and iPads in time for the holiday. Let alone anything Mac.

And we don't have to look too deeply into it. The evidence has been staring people right in the face: Vision Pro, which uses an M2 chip, won't be out until early next year. That's probably right around the time Apple is hoping M3 will be introduced alongside their Macs, too. It's kind of odd to introduce Vision Pro with M2 alongside Macs that are already using M3 chips... by next year.

 

[James Godfrey]

It's because:

1. M3 is long overdue even now. It should have come out earlier this year. It didn't.
2. It'll be almost 1.5 years since the 13" M2 Air is revealed... by October. If Apple doesn't even upgrade it by then, when will they even do so?
3. Recent rumbles around TSMC building up their Arizona plant just for Apple gave people hopes. Only to dash all that hope... yesterday:

Your next MacBook could be in short supply thanks to US skills shortage

TSMC can't find enough qualified US workers to get its new US plant operational in time for 2024

www.techradar.com

So all of these factors combined means... people will be lucky to even get 3nm iPhones and iPads in time for the holiday. Let alone anything Mac.

And we don't have to look too deeply into it. The evidence has been staring people right in the face: Vision Pro, which uses an M2 chip, won't be out until early next year. That's probably right around the time Apple is hoping M3 will be introduced alongside their Macs, too. It's kind of odd to introduce Vision Pro with M2 alongside Macs that are already using M3 chips... by next year.

Yeah I see what you’re saying… do you think then if M3 is going to be in that short supply it’s unlikely we will even get a Mac event this October? If that’s the case then the earliest I can see M3 coming is probably Spring 2024, and that’s if there isn’t any further delays… I suppose M3 could potentially be the highlight of WWDC 2024… at this stage… meaning that would then be a good time to refresh both the 13 and 15” Airs together as the 15” would be a year old with the 13” being 2 years old.

 

[bill-p]

Yeah I see what you’re saying… do you think then if M3 is going to be in that short supply it’s unlikely we will even get a Mac event this October? If that’s the case then the earliest I can see M3 coming is probably Spring 2024, and that’s if there isn’t any further delays… I suppose M3 could potentially be the highlight of WWDC 2024… at this stage… meaning that would then be a good time to refresh both the 13 and 15” Airs together as the 15” would be a year old with the 13” being 2 years old.

I don't think it's worth it for Apple to release products that people have to then wait months... up to 6 or more... to get their hands on. Their products were already in short supply as is during the last few holidays. This will make it even worse.

Not to mention it gives them a perfect excuse to keep selling their current lineup at the same "high" price now during the holidays. If they release new Macs, they have to discount the old ones.

So personally, I really just can't see an M3 Mac at all this holiday. I know people with M2 Air 13" have been waiting a long time, but... even if there is an M3 Air 13", what exactly will we get other than a chip that runs faster? It seems almost like everyone wants these new chips now just so they can have the latest and greatest but without actually considering what they'll need the extra performance for.

 

[James Godfrey]

I don't think it's worth it for Apple to release products that people have to then wait months... up to 6 or more... to get their hands on. Their products were already in short supply as is during the last few holidays. This will make it even worse.

Not to mention it gives them a perfect excuse to keep selling their current lineup at the same "high" price now during the holidays. If they release new Macs, they have to discount the old ones.

So personally, I really just can't see an M3 Mac at all this holiday. I know people with M2 Air 13" have been waiting a long time, but... even if there is an M3 Air 13", what exactly will we get other than a chip that runs faster? It seems almost like everyone wants these new chips now just so they can have the latest and greatest but without actually considering what they'll need the extra performance for.

Yeah and that’s exactly the reason I do believe the Mac line up will go the same way as the iPhones and iPads, budget options running on older chip sets at which point when they do end up refreshing the chips have already scaled up in production to meet the demand (and let’s be honest there is always higher demand for MacBook Airs vs the Pro’s primarily due to the price).

Not only does running budget options on older chips make sense for apple from a supply and cost perspective, but it also makes sense for the consumer of said products as essentially do MacBook Air users in general care whether it’s an M1, M2 or M3 inside… what MacBook Air users (in general, not all) are bothered about is whether or not it can handle the essentials, they don’t go into an Apple Store going I want a MacBook Air but it must have the all new 3nm process chip inside… that just isn’t who the Airs are aimed at.

 

[bill-p]

Yeah, it's gotten to a point where basically, the whole lineup is so good that it's really just edge cases that require people to scale up in performance. And people don't even have to wait. For instance, if I needed a faster chip, I could just go for the Pro devices now. It's not anything like the iPhone/iPad lineup where the only way to get a faster chip was to wait.

So the existence of an M3 chip for Air users is actually very much unnecessary in my honest opinions. My 15" MacBook Air is already faster than the 2019 16" MacBook Pro (we still have one) so what's even the need for me to scale up higher? I couldn't figure that out and ultimately decided to go with 15" Air over 14" Pro as my daily driver, since I just need a bigger display to read more and bigger texts.

I think Apple knows this, too, and that's why their updates to the Mac lineup have been very sparse. There's really just not much of a reason to get a new chip except for "more performance". Maybe they'll introduce Face ID to Macs as well for the next round, but that alone doesn't interest me.

 

[coffeemilktea]

I think M3 Macs will come out in time for the holiday season, but it'll probably be the iMac and maybe the MacBook Pros that get it first. Every other Mac just got updated too recently to suddenly get the new chip.

 

[T'hain Esh Kelch]

I was expecting the MBA in late autumn simply because of the June 22 release of the M2 MBA. But the 15” MBA convinved me they will push the release to january, which would fit with the 18 months of M1 to M2. That being said, they have never released a MBA in january before, and I think they want their best selling Mac out for the holidays.

So it could be either or really.

 

[arcite]

In context of the AIr.....is an M3 really going to be noticeably more powerful? I doubt it. Sure, performance might be 30% more on paper....but is that noticeable in daily macbook air tasks? Saving a few seconds here or there, loading an app in one blink of an eye instead of two? the air just went through a redesign, so it's likely the physical body of the laptop will stay similar. It also appears apple is leary of OLEDS....so fat chance of those happening soon.

The M3 will definitely see more gains in gaming/graphics powers....but the air will always be limited due to lack of a fan, thermal limits....let's just relax, the M3 will be here eventually, all in good time.

 

[NewUsername]

The M-chips were always rumoured to be on an 18-month schedule. The M2 arrived 18 months after the M1, and by the end of this year it will be 18 months after the M2.

The M2 arrived three months after the M1 Ultra, so the M3 arriving 3-4 months after the M2 Ultra would be nothing extraordinary.

It is true that Apple just released a new M2 product (15" MacBook Air) but that product will remain in the lineup after the launch of M3 MacBook Airs anyway.

In 2020, Apple launched the A14 and the M1 around the same time, the M1 basically being an A14X. So if Apple now launches the A17 and the M3, which is basically an A17X, that would be nothing extraordinary.

Of course, none of that guarantees an M3 MacBook Air at the end of the year. If Apple can’t produce the M3 in large numbers yet, they might only introduce an M3 iMac, for example, and wait for the M3 MacBook Air until early next year.

 

[Yebubbleman]

Vision Pro is still slated to come out with an M2 and not an M3. Vision Pro is also slated to come out early next year.

Do we really think that they'll release a completely brand new product category with an SoC that's already being replaced in key products that use these M-series SoCs? I don't.

 

[leman]

I think there are two pieces of evidence agains M3 Air coming early: 1) the fact that a low volume Vision Pro comes with M2 and b) they have just released the 15” M2.

On the other hand, M3 is already overdue and delaying it until next year wouldn’t be good publicity. Another possibility is that we are going to get some other M3 based products first, like the iMac or maybe the MBP. It is also possible that M3 Pro/Max will be released before the base M3 in order to entice the professional user.

 

[ctjack]

All the past hot debates here on i3 vs i5 vs i7 is enough for me in March 2020 with new Air - Apple then dropped M1 airs in november of the same 2020. So i suppose these 15 airs will be here for another 8 mos until M3 comes in.

 

[AJB1971]

I think we’ll see an M3 Air this year.

The 13-inch Air is almost certainly Apple’s biggest-selling computer so it wouldn't make sense to hold it back, especially for the holiday season where sales are likely to be strong. Also, the current model will be 16 to 17 months old at that point and we know that Apple releases the least sophisticated versions of chips first.

They could have held back the 15-inch Air to launch an M3 version at the same time as the 13-inch, but again, why deprive themselves of sales for that period of time? The fact that the two may be out of sync for a while is not likely to be that big of an issue as the initial demand for the 15-inch version will have been satisfied. They could release a 15-inch M3 sometime next year and then move to a simultaneous release with the M4.

I do wonder whether the base M3 will move to 12GB of RAM. There were reports of Apple testing a version of the M3 with 36GB so 12GB, 24GB, and 36GB versions would make sense. It would also be cheaper and less likely to cannibalise other sales or upgrades than moving directly to 16GB.

 

[arcite]

Alright....so there's a front page story of M3 Macbook pros coming out next year; with M3 upgrades to the regular Macbook Air 13. That makes a bit of sense. Here's the thing....the M3 in the Macbook Air will have fewer cores than the pros. So yea, it'll be an upgrade over the M2, but it's not gonna be 'revolutionary'. On the other hand, M3 on the pros, with multiple cores will be exciting....and EXPENSIVE. At least $1000 more than an Air.

In fact; I even wonder if it'll be worth it for most people to upgrade from an M1 to an M3 Macbook Air. --- unless there are special use cases of course. There is no indication anything else will be changed on the Macbook Air (ie. OLED Screens???)....Might as well wait for M3 Pro/Max....but then the M2 Pro/Max on refurb stores will be even cheaper. choices choices choices

 

[Allen_Wentz]

Yeah I see what you’re saying… do you think then if M3 is going to be in that short supply it’s unlikely we will even get a Mac event this October? If that’s the case then the earliest I can see M3 coming is probably Spring 2024, and that’s if there isn’t any further delays… I suppose M3 could potentially be the highlight of WWDC 2024… at this stage… meaning that would then be a good time to refresh both the 13 and 15” Airs together as the 15” would be a year old with the 13” being 2 years old.

IMO it is generally wrong to visualize M3 as some kind of new product drop like a new iPhone. Reality is that chips are all about (hella complex) yields and chip lithography, and competence of individual completed chips varies. So an individual M3 chip may spec out OK for a 13" MBP but inadequate for a 16" MBP max. Only Apple knows the mix of what final chips work for what usage, and yields vary over time.

So if, as is likely, the coincidence of production means viably-priced quantities of lower-end-product chips are available sooner, then Apple may choose to first release said lower-end-products (like 13" MBPs, MBAs and Minis) in M3 even though that is not usually considered to be a best marketing strategy. Or perhaps (plenty strong enough for the low end) M2 chips have evolved yields to really excellent price points, so Apple sticks with M2 longer and adjusts the product lines accordingly.

Only Apple knows the numbers, and Apple leaks what they want us to hear to keep interest up and avoid consumers getting blindsided (unless intentionally).

 

[James Godfrey]

In context of the AIr.....is an M3 really going to be noticeably more powerful? I doubt it. Sure, performance might be 30% more on paper....but is that noticeable in daily macbook air tasks? Saving a few seconds here or there, loading an app in one blink of an eye instead of two? the air just went through a redesign, so it's likely the physical body of the laptop will stay similar. It also appears apple is leary of OLEDS....so fat chance of those happening soon.

The M3 will definitely see more gains in gaming/graphics powers....but the air will always be limited due to lack of a fan, thermal limits....let's just relax, the M3 will be here eventually, all in good time.

Yeah I agree I think the buzz word 3 Nanometer is really making people believe this is going to be another Intel to apple silicon situation but in reality it probably won’t feel any different.

I think we’ll see an M3 Air this year.

The 13-inch Air is almost certainly Apple’s biggest-selling computer so it wouldn't make sense to hold it back, especially for the holiday season where sales are likely to be strong. Also, the current model will be 16 to 17 months old at that point and we know that Apple releases the least sophisticated versions of chips first.

They could have held back the 15-inch Air to launch an M3 version at the same time as the 13-inch, but again, why deprive themselves of sales for that period of time? The fact that the two may be out of sync for a while is not likely to be that big of an issue as the initial demand for the 15-inch version will have been satisfied. They could release a 15-inch M3 sometime next year and then move to a simultaneous release with the M4.

I do wonder whether the base M3 will move to 12GB of RAM. There were reports of Apple testing a version of the M3 with 36GB so 12GB, 24GB, and 36GB versions would make sense. It would also be cheaper and less likely to cannibalise other sales or upgrades than moving directly to 16GB.

The issue is why would Apple rush to put out a limited supply chip in their best selling MacBook Air, a MacBook which is essentially targeted at the lower end market and students on a budget. Further to this those in the market in the holiday season for an M3 Air will be the exact same market who would happily buy an M2 Air, as most of the market won’t be coming from an M1 Air and more likely an Intel based MacBook of some kind.

What would make sense for Apple at this stage with such a short supply of M3 chips is to put it into lower sales volume Mac’s (iMac and MacBook Pro 13”), as that will not only encourage sales of their lower selling lines but will also not sell enough for the supply chain to struggle. I believe launching M3 in October in the new 13” Air is going to lead to major delays with most not getting their machine until the new year anyway at which point they may as well have waited until Spring 2024 to launch M3 in the Air line up.

Also it has to be noted that the new 13” Air has just had a price drop, this is likely Apple admitting that 13” Air is overdue a refresh but also suggests that price drop is to encourage sales throughout the holiday season also as people know that is now a relatively old machine (in the tech space) and may prevent them from purchasing it. I wouldn’t see the point in Apple dropping the price of the 13” Air only to launch a refresh a few months later, it makes zero sense.

Personally I think that quite possibly the 15” Air was likely planned to launch in October with M3 alongside a refreshed 13” Air and potentially even the announcement of the vision pro with M3 also, but due to recent supply constraints they had to jig everything around and decided to launch both Vision Pro and the 15” Air with M2 and call it a day, then launching Macs with M3 later which they can keep up with the demand for.

I don’t think that the Vision Pro having M2 means that M3 will launch after that is officially available, however, I do not think we are going to see high demand macs with M3 until the supply chain is sorted out early next year. I expect a time frame of early to mid 2024 for M3 coming to the Air line up at this point. It wouldn’t surprise me if we have a similar experience as last year with no October event at all as apple May decide to wait for the M3 launch until early next year now.

 

[ctjack]

Yeah I agree I think the buzz word 3 Nanometer is really making people believe this is going to be another Intel to apple silicon situation but in reality it probably won’t feel any different.


The issue is why would Apple rush to put out a limited supply chip in their best selling MacBook Air, a MacBook which is essentially targeted at the lower end market and students on a budget. Further to this those in the market in the holiday season for an M3 Air will be the exact same market who would happily buy an M2 Air, as most of the market won’t be coming from an M1 Air and more likely an Intel based MacBook of some kind.

What would make sense for Apple at this stage with such a short supply of M3 chips is to put it into lower sales volume Mac’s (iMac and MacBook Pro 13”), as that will not only encourage sales of their lower selling lines but will also not sell enough for the supply chain to struggle. I believe launching M3 in October in the new 13” Air is going to lead to major delays with most not getting their machine until the new year anyway at which point they may as well have waited until Spring 2024 to launch M3 in the Air line up.

Also it has to be noted that the new 13” Air has just had a price drop, this is likely Apple admitting that 13” Air is overdue a refresh but also suggests that price drop is to encourage sales throughout the holiday season also as people know that is now a relatively old machine (in the tech space) and may prevent them from purchasing it. I wouldn’t see the point in Apple dropping the price of the 13” Air only to launch a refresh a few months later, it makes zero sense.

Personally I think that quite possibly the 15” Air was likely planned to launch in October with M3 alongside a refreshed 13” Air and potentially even the announcement of the vision pro with M3 also, but due to recent supply constraints they had to jig everything around and decided to launch both Vision Pro and the 15” Air with M2 and call it a day, then launching Macs with M3 later which they can keep up with the demand for.

I don’t think that the Vision Pro having M2 means that M3 will launch after that is officially available, however, I do not think we are going to see high demand macs with M3 until the supply chain is sorted out early next year. I expect a time frame of early to mid 2024 for M3 coming to the Air line up at this point. It wouldn’t surprise me if we have a similar experience as last year with no October event at all as apple May decide to wait for the M3 launch until early next year now.

I think you are right. M3 in october to base mbp and imac to boost stale product sales, while tech savvy people wouldn’t bait for it.
Only then Q1 new airs coming in. If you are not in a hurry then as well might just wait a little.
Like i said earlier, apple would exclude air 15 from back to school promo is they were expecting it to be a long term cash cow - it previously did so with ipads: just exlcuded them from promo even though they were released during summer.

 

[chongsen]

Intel will drop 14th gen CPU on Oct, that is the first Intel 7nm CPU. It will shrink the power efficient gap between PC and Mac.
Right now Mac is losing on the performance battle. It needs maintain the power efficient advantage to solidify it's ground. M3 is essential at this point.

 

[Allen_Wentz]

Intel will drop 14th gen CPU on Oct, that is the first Intel 7nm CPU. It will shrink the power efficient gap between PC and Mac.
Right now Mac is losing on the performance battle. It needs maintain the power efficient advantage to solidify it's ground. M3 is essential at this point.

Although I am not an expert, I would tend to disagree with the comment "Right now Mac is losing on the performance battle." Most mainstream (meaning 90 percentile) folks who have now used M-series Apple SoC (including me with an M2 Max MBP) report favorable real-world performance results. Apple SoC clearly has room for growth at the highest end, but for 98% of users the M2 Max and Ultra configurations provide very competent performance now.

Intel's coming ML chip built on ~7nm process is on a timing track similar to Apple/TSMC M3 chips on ~3nm process; both years behind Apple's M2 chips, which by now must have pretty good yields. Even without M3, when Intel's ML drops in Q4 M2 will have been providing strong cost-effective performance for a long time.

TSMC recently reported their N3 chips as solidly on track for H2 2023, which suggests that Apple M3 will be available. The questions are what will yields/costs be and where Apple will use the M3s first? [My vote would be to first use the strongest M3 variants in a strong Mac Pro configuration, but I doubt that will happen quickly].

 

[JPack]

I’d put the odds of M3 Air at 60/40 for October 2023.

The wafer cycle time for N3 is supposed to be 17 weeks. So we might have the first batch of N3B chips headed from TSMC to Quanta for assembly by early October assuming production started right at H2’23. Maybe launch in October and ship in November.

I don’t think there’s any chance Apple will slow the adoption of M3 on MBA. As nodes get more advanced, chip R&D costs increase. Apple needs to sell more chips and put them in more products to recoup the costs, not sell fewer.

 

[Allen_Wentz]

I’d put the odds of M3 Air at 60/40 for October 2023.

The wafer cycle time for N3 is supposed to be 17 weeks. So we might have the first batch of N3B chips headed from TSMC to Quanta for assembly by early October assuming production started right at H2’23. Maybe launch in October and ship in November.

I don’t think there’s any chance Apple will slow the adoption of M3 on MBA. As nodes get more advanced, chip R&D costs increase. Apple needs to sell more chips and put them in more products to recoup the costs, not sell fewer.

Very good points. It would be really interesting to see the real-time data around M2 and M3 chip mixes and yields.

 

[James Godfrey]

I’d put the odds of M3 Air at 60/40 for October 2023.

The wafer cycle time for N3 is supposed to be 17 weeks. So we might have the first batch of N3B chips headed from TSMC to Quanta for assembly by early October assuming production started right at H2’23. Maybe launch in October and ship in November.

I don’t think there’s any chance Apple will slow the adoption of M3 on MBA. As nodes get more advanced, chip R&D costs increase. Apple needs to sell more chips and put them in more products to recoup the costs, not sell fewer.

I’m sitting at about 20% chance of a 13” Air M3 launching for a few reasons:

1. The 15” Air launching with M2 this close to the 13” Air refreshing, it will be extremely odd for apple to have two sizes of the same device with different chip sets, with the more expensive option having an older chip.

2. The Vision Pro also getting M2, this suggests that Apple are doubting the M3 is going to be ready in late 2023 as predicted.

3. The price drop in the 13” Air, this suggests that Apple are in no denial the 13” Air is now overdue a refresh but have dropped the price to encourage sales during the holiday season.

4. The supply issues of M3, there are many reports now that there are delays etc…

5. Mark Gurman being wrong about the 15” Air launching with M3 which he predicted earlier this year, suggesting he may be wrong again about what he expects in October.

6. The rumours suggesting the iMac and MacBook Pro 13” are getting M3, this suggests that Apple are likely going to focus on lower selling Mac’s for the initial M3 roll-out as they won’t need as many M3 chips with these devices alone for Q4 2023.

 

[Rinka]

No, I think they'll want a holiday season with the 15" and then refresh both sizes at the same time next spring or even autumn.

 

[James Godfrey]

No, I think they'll want a holiday season with the 15" and then refresh both sizes at the same time next spring or even autumn.

Yeah that’s what I believe in all honesty, I know it’s hard for those who have waiting for an M3 Air to even think that it may be up to another 12 months before they see it but the launch of the 15” with M2 seriously suggests that is likely going to be the case now. If apple were planning M3 in October they would have refreshed the 13” and launched the 15” at the same time then.