M3 MacBook Air - does everyone really think it’s around the corner?

[Rinka]

Yeah that’s what I believe in all honesty, I know it’s hard for those who have waiting for an M3 Air to even think that it may be up to another 12 months before they see it but the launch of the 15” with M2 seriously suggests that is likely going to be the case now. If apple were planning M3 in October they would have refreshed the 13” and launched the 15” at the same time then.

Yep and they are still selling a lot of the M1 air with people considering it a bit of a deal as it's cheaper than the m2.

I personally think it's worth the extra for the form factor, screen and magsafe. But I think Apple will definitely carry on with the two clearly different looking air lines over the holidays and not muddle it up with an M3 air.

 

[Apple_Robert]

I don’t think it will happen this year.

 

[phillytim]

Count me in - M3 products not until 2024.

 

[JPack]

I’m sitting at about 20% chance of a 13” Air M3 launching for a few reasons:

1. The 15” Air launching with M2 this close to the 13” Air refreshing, it will be extremely odd for apple to have two sizes of the same device with different chip sets, with the more expensive option having an older chip.

2. The Vision Pro also getting M2, this suggests that Apple are doubting the M3 is going to be ready in late 2023 as predicted.

3. The price drop in the 13” Air, this suggests that Apple are in no denial the 13” Air is now overdue a refresh but have dropped the price to encourage sales during the holiday season.

4. The supply issues of M3, there are many reports now that there are delays etc…

5. Mark Gurman being wrong about the 15” Air launching with M3 which he predicted earlier this year, suggesting he may be wrong again about what he expects in October.

6. The rumours suggesting the iMac and MacBook Pro 13” are getting M3, this suggests that Apple are likely going to focus on lower selling Mac’s for the initial M3 roll-out as they won’t need as many M3 chips with these devices alone for Q4 2023.

Gurman is typically correct about event timing, so it makes me wonder what Apple might launch in October.

If it weren't for the comment about October from him, I'd agree M3 is also an early 2024 product.

 

[Saturn007]

“M3 MacBook Air - does everyone really think it’s around the corner?”​

Depends upon what time frame “around the corner” means!

*Right* around the corner would be Fall… as Grumman predicts. But clearly not everyone does!

“Around the corner”, OTOH, could mean *by* Spring 2024. In that case, most everyone agrees that will happen — or should agree!

Of course, the glib response is that the answer is always “No” to a question about what “everyone” thinks or believes! Especially with the proviso “really think”! It almost invariably is never *everyone*.

———

As to why Apple released the 15” MBA with M2 even if the M3 13” MBA is arriving in October, that's because they wanted to juice Mac sales this summer. And, juice them again with the 15” M3 MBA next spring!

M3 13” MBA arrives in October as it's time to upgrade it — and it will greatly juice holiday sales. Apple's bean counters & marketing experts know exactly what they’re doing.

Count me among those who say the likelihood is 80%+ for an October introduction of the 13” M3 MBA. especially if there are no issues with yields and supply chains.

I'm also optimistic that the M3 MBA will show substantial gains in performance and battery life, far more than the M1 to M2 transition produced. It will definitely be heralded by Apple as “The best 13” MacBook Air we've ever produced!” ✅ 💯 🙈

 

[Yebubbleman]

I’m sitting at about 20% chance of a 13” Air M3 launching for a few reasons:

1. The 15” Air launching with M2 this close to the 13” Air refreshing, it will be extremely odd for apple to have two sizes of the same device with different chip sets, with the more expensive option having an older chip.

2. The Vision Pro also getting M2, this suggests that Apple are doubting the M3 is going to be ready in late 2023 as predicted.

3. The price drop in the 13” Air, this suggests that Apple are in no denial the 13” Air is now overdue a refresh but have dropped the price to encourage sales during the holiday season.

4. The supply issues of M3, there are many reports now that there are delays etc…

5. Mark Gurman being wrong about the 15” Air launching with M3 which he predicted earlier this year, suggesting he may be wrong again about what he expects in October.

6. The rumours suggesting the iMac and MacBook Pro 13” are getting M3, this suggests that Apple are likely going to focus on lower selling Mac’s for the initial M3 roll-out as they won’t need as many M3 chips with these devices alone for Q4 2023.

These are all sound and logical and honestly the very same reasons why I'd bet that we won't see M3 this year.

 

[Zest28]

M3 is coming because the MBA is the best selling Mac. It is Apple their most important Mac that needs to keep selling well.

Mac Pro however …

 

[phillytim]

I'm gathering that the convention wisdom is this: with the reported low 3nm chip yields, Apple may first target M3 to the long-overdue iMac line this Fall 2023 - and soft-launch the MacBook Airs for delivery in early 2024.

If M3 is indeed low yield right now, it doesn't make sense for Apple to launch it on its highest-selling product (MBA).

 

[kp98077]

They just updated the M2 MBP not that long ago, hard to imagine it occurring anytime soon.

 

[Tagbert]

It's because:

1. M3 is long overdue even now. It should have come out earlier this year. It didn't.
2. It'll be almost 1.5 years since the 13" M2 Air is revealed... by October. If Apple doesn't even upgrade it by then, when will they even do so?
3. Recent rumbles around TSMC building up their Arizona plant just for Apple gave people hopes. Only to dash all that hope... yesterday:

Your next MacBook could be in short supply thanks to US skills shortage

TSMC can't find enough qualified US workers to get its new US plant operational in time for 2024

www.techradar.com

So all of these factors combined means... people will be lucky to even get 3nm iPhones and iPads in time for the holiday. Let alone anything Mac.

And we don't have to look too deeply into it. The evidence has been staring people right in the face: Vision Pro, which uses an M2 chip, won't be out until early next year. That's probably right around the time Apple is hoping M3 will be introduced alongside their Macs, too. It's kind of odd to introduce Vision Pro with M2 alongside Macs that are already using M3 chips... by next year.

I agree with most of what you are saying but that TSMC plant in AZ is only planned for 4nm chips, not the 3nm chips that we are talking about. No matter what happens at that plant has no bearing on M3x SOCs.