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Discussion in 'Apple, Inc and Tech Industry' started by IJ Reilly, Oct 2, 2007.
This is awesome, Microsoft with arguably their worst OS, Apple with arguably their best...Microsoft with their worst CEO ever, Apple with their best
15% worldwide? LMAO
I would bet $100 it won't happen in SJ's life time...
It could hit 15 % right now, if we knew which websites were counted by Net Applications.
The number doesn't really matter because it could change instantly if 30 % of the websites that were Windows-only dropped their statistics gathering applications. It would make Mac OS X and Linux look much stronger, but in reality, would there be any change?
This analyst is forecasting a 15% Mac market share, though on what basis is far from clear. Wishful thinking, perhaps. It's not as though the Mac hasn't ever been in that territory so it's not out the realm of possibilities. Either way the current trend is clear. If Apple added just 1% a year over the next few years, that would be great for Mac users. The fact that it all comes out of Microsoft's hide is icing on the cake.
I understand what you're saying, but better to get the information from IDC or Gartner (bleh) or some other source of sales data.
Net Applications et al. get their data from whatever computers visit websites where their traffic analysis software is installed and watching. If there software only ran on Windows-oriented websites, Windows might have a 99.9 % share of the visits. Conversely, Mac-oriented sites or Linux sites...you get the picture.
How many times have you seen a ComputerWorld poll that's overwhelmingly Mac in the results? How many times has that been linked from MacRumors?
I know, I know. I'm just taking a moment to appreciate the optimism about the Mac. After so much negativity for so long, it makes a nice change.
What really got me is the slow uptake of Vista. I remember reading that projections for the uptake of Vista pointed to a 20% adoption rate by year's end.
If people are that disappointed with Vista, it only make sense that Macs are growing in popularity.
Apparently, the low Vista adoption rate was enough that this week Microsoft postponed removing WinXP from sales until sometime in 2008.
To what end? If all OEM PCs now come with Vista installed, how much of a market remains for XP?
Several OEMs have been requesting WinXP because their customers ask for it. Vista wouldn't have the adoption rate if it wasn't forced or bought my the Windows fanatics. Actually, 3-4 months after the initial rollout, 2 big OEMs were requesting WinXP.
It's funny how this stuff varies from site to site. Two sites of my own have very different numbers, one showing a whopping 10.11% Mac, while the other (arguably much larger site) shows just 1.85%. There's no reason, from either content or functionality, for either site to have more than the other. The former, however, is a forum, and as members have shared their experiences of all things Apple it has, in turn, influenced the buying decisions of others. That's pretty effective word of mouth if it's the only reason!
I know you said arguably, but can you say Vista is worse than Windows ME?
Yeah, didn't think so.
If Apple keep growing at the speed they are 10% would not surpise me at all,in a few years.
Me thinks Apple is getting so ingrained into popular culture nowadays that it just wont stop.Plus all the new gadgets keep the brand well and truly out there as well.
Just about anyone I know almost always groans when you mention MS name.Makes me wonder if thats negative branding they can ever overcome?
I can see that coming quicker than people realise, possibly within eighteen months if you do the maths. A repeat 40% increase in the coming twelve months would bring the Mac to 9.2%.
i would very much like to bet with you on this bold prediction. really want to know why you think apple can double the production line in 18 months, and regard market as a simple linear line.
Remember that this study isn't market share, it's web presence. Thanks partly to Firefox and partly to the Mac resurgence, more website owners are re-writing their code to remove IE-only components. Which means more Macs that are already sat in people's homes will visit these websites. Add in the extra Macs that are being sold to newcomers thanks to Vista being perceived as something nobody wants and I'm pretty sure it will add up to another big increase before it starts to level off.
maybe, maybe not. but i want it to happen. i'm not going to bet against it!
The old story with Microsoft is that they don't have to care what their customers want. Every operating system they've released results in a forced succession and adoption by the OEMs. It's not as though previous OS releases were widely hailed by OEMs or the public, especially in their initial iterations, but that changed nothing in Microsoft's approach. I'd be very surprised if Microsoft changed their policy this time around.
It's already happened. There is a thread somewhere here about Acer complaining about the poor sales from Vista, which led to a couple OEMs getting to sell WinXP. A few weeks after that, there was a capitulation from Microsoft on letting the non-Premium versions of Vista be virtualised. Then, this latest where Microsoft has postponed the withdrawal date of WinXP. Obviously, they just want to sell something.
You mean, people are actually avoiding buying Windows PCs because they come with Vista?
They didn't mention purchases in stores. What I've seen said that when they call to buy a computer, many have apparently asked for WinXP, probably because of hearsay but compatibility with certain software seems to be an issue.
Even in a few stores, I'm seeing WinXP available as an upgrade where it had been removed.
This combined with the lethargy of larger companies to move to Vista provides reason enough for WinXP to remain. Computerworld has a how-to guide on making WinXP last longer. I've been reading Computerworld since about 1983 and they've never done such a thing until Vista.
Apple is benefiting from, and will continue to benefit from, a few things.
1. We are moving from a "Company provides your PC" to "Employee shows up with their own PC" model. It's a slow but inevitable shift. When you hire a new employee, you don't buy them a pair of shoes, you expect them to show up with shoes, a watch, glasses, a pen, etc. Ten years from now PC's will NOT be universally provided by employers.
2. Apple has a much better market share among people who pick out their own computer, compared to people who get their computer from their boss or parents. See 1 above.
3. Large number of folks shifting from Windows to Mac. Very few shifting back.
4. 50% of new Mac purchasers are purchasing their first Mac. See 3 above. This will snowball.
5. Macbooks, Macbook Pros. Of the many people I know (and me) switching from Windows, most switch to a MBP or MB. Apple is becoming identified with portables for some reason. As preference shifts to portables, and as the performance gap narrows, this perception benefits Apple.
6. Bootcamp/VMFusion/Parallels are not great solutions but they are "escape valves". It gives folks comfort that if they cannot make the switch, they can always run their app in a VM or dedicate the machine to Windows via Bootcamp. Personally, Bootcamp/Parallels gave me the final comfort I needed to switch. Now that I've switched... I don't use them because I don't need them. But I'm not sure I would have switched without that safety net.
7. Leopard. Can't hurt. Might help alot.
8. iPod dominance. How many new Mac users were solid Windows users until they bought an iPod? That's the gateway drug because they start thinking "Gee... this really works great... hmmm... I don't think any of my other consumer electronics work great... I wonder if a Mac would work this great...".
9. iPhone factor. iPhone is by any measure a wild commercial success, and I believe that whatever iPhone II/2.0/Nano/whatever version is released in 2008 will eclipse it. That gets a lot of Apple tech in the hands of a lot of business influencers. Helps soften the barriers from the IT folks, the folks who fought to keep us on mainframes 30 years ago and are fighting to keep us on Windows now. When the discussion moves from "Hey Geek, what operating system should we use" to "Get my executive teams iPhone 3.0's and make them work flawlessly with our systems or you are fired", we'll see some attitude movement in IT.
That doesn't lead to a specific prediction, but these are some positive factors for Apple share in the future IMHO.