Apple will never be Microsoft (prediction)
Imagine what will happen if 92% of the worlds personal computer population consists of Apple machines. Will a similar problem as in the Windows world emerge? Will Apple fall victim to the same lame practices? In other words; is this a blessing or potential curse? 😕
Apple will never be on 92% of the World's computers.
More likely, what will happen is a continuation of the historical trends already happening now.
- Microsoft will likely try to copy Apple again and re-write windows to be on top of a BSD foundation.
- Microsoft will get closer and closer to OS software. More and more parts of Windows will become open source.
- Open source will get closer to Microsoft. OS communities will continue to imitate Windows in hopes of getting market share.
- Microsoft will continue to execute very poorly. Balmer is so "almost fired" already. 🙂
So it's likely that Microsoft will continue to do poorly, and lose market share both to Linux and OS-X. Eventually, it will have to slice off it's "negative revenue" parts as the market gets tighter. This means Microsoft will have to get out of X-Box, games, advertising, media sales, and ditch it's failed executives. "Lean and mean" will be the order of the day and this is the point at which Balmer get's fired in the resulting re-organisation. Yay!
Eventually, eventually...
even this re-organisation will fail and Windows will gracefully (and almost un-noticed), slide into "freeware."
They will
still (together with Linux and other freeware), command something like 75% of the market, and Apple will make the only computers that people are willing to
pay for even though they will be a lot cheaper than they are today. People will be willing to do this because they will get a computer that "just works" and needs no setup. This will still be about 25% of the market only.
Apple
will, on the other hand have much bigger slices of various consumer electronics markets and will be bigger than Sony is now. The iPhone will be so ubiquitous it will be just called a "phone," and probably your TV/Stereo and some of your robotics will be made by Apple.